title: The effect of mask use on the spread of influenza during a pandemic.
abstract: Face masks have traditionally been used in general infection control, but their efficacy at the population level in preventing transmission of influenza viruses has not been studied in detail. Data from published clinical studies indicate that the infectivity of influenza A virus is probably very high, so that transmission of infection may involve low doses of virus. At low doses, the relation between dose and the probability of infection is approximately linear, so that the reduction in infection risk is proportional to the reduction in exposure due to particle retention of the mask. A population transmission model was set up to explore the impact of population-wide mask use, allowing estimation of the effects of mask efficacy and coverage (fraction of the population wearing masks) on the basic reproduction number and the infection attack rate. We conclude that population-wide use of face masks could make an important contribution in delaying an influenza pandemic. Mask use also reduces the reproduction number, possibly even to levels sufficient for containing an influenza outbreak.
authors.affiliation: National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands. nbrienen@gmail.com
authors.forename: Nicole C J
authors.initials: NC
authors.lastname: Brienen
authors.forename: Aura
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Timen
authors.forename: Jacco
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Wallinga
authors.forename: Jim E
authors.initials: JE
authors.lastname: van Steenbergen
authors.forename: Peter F M
authors.initials: PF
authors.lastname: Teunis
mesh_terms: D006801:Humans; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000635:transmission; D008397:Masks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D008954:Models, Biological; D058873:Pandemics / Q000517:prevention & control*; D012308:Risk Management; D040242:Risk Reduction Behavior