title: Epidemiological assessment of predictors of caries increment in 7-10- year-olds: a 2-year cohort study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The aim of this 2-year cohort study (2003 to 2005) was to investigate how caries experience, at initial lesions (early or non-cavited lesions) and cavited stages, predicts caries increment in permanent teeth in 7-10- year-olds.
  
  
  METHODS
  The random sample of 765 children attending public schools in the city of Piracicaba, SP, Brazil, was divided into two groups: 423 children aged 7-8 years and 342 children aged 9-10 years. All subjects were examined by a calibrated examiner, using dental mirror and ball-ended probes, after tooth brushing and air-drying in an outdoor setting, based on the World Health Organization criteria. Active caries with intact surfaces were also recorded as initial lesion (IL). Univariate analysis was used for statistical analysis (Odds Ratios and Chi-square).
  
  
  RESULTS
  The association between the DMFT (decayed, missing and filled teeth) increment and the presence of IL was significant only for 9-10-year-old children. The children with DMFT>0 at baseline were more prone to have DMFT increment, with the highest risk for caries increment occurring in children aged 7-8 years.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The predictors of caries increment were the presence (at baseline) of caries experience in permanent teeth for both age groups (7-8; 9-10-year-olds) and the presence of the IL (at baseline) for 9-10-year-olds.
authors.affiliation: Department of Community Dentistry, Piracicaba Dental School, State University of Campinas, Piracicaba, SP, Brazil.
authors.forename: Ariana Bellotto Correa
authors.initials: AB
authors.lastname: Kassawara
authors.forename: Elaine Pereira da Silva
authors.initials: EP
authors.lastname: Tagliaferro
authors.forename: Karine Laura
authors.initials: KL
authors.lastname: Cortelazzi
authors.forename: Gláucia Maria Bovi
authors.initials: GM
authors.lastname: Ambrosano
authors.forename: Andréa Videira
authors.initials: AV
authors.lastname: Assaf
authors.forename: Marcelo de Castro
authors.initials: Mde C
authors.lastname: Meneghim
authors.forename: Antonio Carlos
authors.initials: AC
authors.lastname: Pereira
mesh_terms: D000704:Analysis of Variance; D001938:Brazil / Q000453:epidemiology; D016009:Chi-Square Distribution; D002648:Child; D015331:Cohort Studies; D004245:DMF Index; D003731:Dental Caries / Q000453:epidemiology*; D019229:Dentition, Permanent; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D015588:Observer Variation; D016017:Odds Ratio; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors