title: Predictors of mortality in HIV-1 infected children on antiretroviral therapy in Kenya: a prospective cohort.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Among children, early mortality following highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) remains high. It is important to define correlates of mortality in order to improve outcome.
  
  
  METHODS
  HIV-1-infected children aged 18 months-12 years were followed up at Kenyatta National Hospital, Nairobi after initiating NNRTI-based HAART. Cofactors for mortality were determined using multivariate Cox regression models.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Between August 2004 and November 2008, 149 children were initiated on HAART of whom 135 were followed for a total of 238 child-years (median 21 months) after HAART initiation. Baseline median CD4% was 6.8% and median HIV-1-RNA was 5.98-log10 copies/ml. Twenty children (13.4%) died at a median of 35 days post-HAART initiation. Mortality during the entire follow-up period was 8.4 deaths per 100 child-years (46 deaths/100 child-years in first 4 months and 1.0 deaths/100 child-years after 4 months post-HAART initiation). On univariate Cox regression, baseline hemoglobin (Hb) <9 g/dl, weight-for-height z-score (WHZ) < -2, and WHO clinical stage 4 were associated with increased risk of death (Hb <9 g/dl HR 3.00 [95% C.I. 1.21-7.39], p = 0.02, WHZ < -2 HR 3.41 [95% C.I. 1.28-9.08], p = 0.01, and WHO clinical stage 4, HR 3.08 [1.17-8.12], p = 0.02). On multivariate analysis Hb < 9 g/dl remained predictive of mortality after controlling for age, baseline CD4%, WHO clinical stage and weight-for-height z-score (HR 2.95 (95% C.I. 1.04-8.35) p = 0.04).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  High early mortality was observed in this cohort of Kenyan children receiving HAART, and low baseline hemoglobin was an independent risk factor for death.
authors.affiliation: Department of Paediatrics, University of Nairobi, Box 19676, Nairobi 00202, Kenya. dalton@africaonline.co.ke
authors.forename: Dalton C
authors.initials: DC
authors.lastname: Wamalwa
authors.forename: Elizabeth M
authors.initials: EM
authors.lastname: Obimbo
authors.forename: Carey
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Farquhar
authors.forename: Barbra A
authors.initials: BA
authors.lastname: Richardson
authors.forename: Dorothy A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Mbori-Ngacha
authors.forename: Irene
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Inwani
authors.forename: Sara
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Benki-Nugent
authors.forename: Grace
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: John-Stewart
mesh_terms: D019380:Anti-HIV Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D023241:Antiretroviral Therapy, Highly Active / Q000379:methods*; D001827:Body Height / Q000187:drug effects; D015992:Body Mass Index; D001835:Body Weight / Q000187:drug effects; D018791:CD4 Lymphocyte Count; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000401:mortality* / Q000821:virology; D015497:HIV-1 / Q000187:drug effects* / Q000302:isolation & purification; D006454:Hemoglobins / Q000187:drug effects; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007630:Kenya / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D013997:Time Factors; D016896:Treatment Outcome; D019562:Viral Load / Q000187:drug effects
chemical_list: D019380:Anti-HIV Agents; D006454:Hemoglobins