Macroeconomic impact of HIV: the need for better modelling.
OBJECTIVE
To critically evaluate the recent literature on macroeconomic repercussions of the HIV pandemic and the response to it. The review focuses on the impacts of HIV through both its health consequences and its impact on the accumulation of human capital.


RESULTS
So far, most studies have found a moderate impact of the HIV epidemic on macroeconomic growth. However, recent studies tend to emphasize the fact that HIV undermines human capital and implies a long-term detriment for economic development. Availability of data from Demographic and Health Surveys offers opportunities for better understanding the relationship between the HIV epidemic and economic growth through pathways linking its microeconomic and macroeconomic impacts.


CONCLUSIONS
The macroeconomic impact of HIV observed so far appears moderate. Our analysis of recent literature, however, points out three important issues that may have been previously underestimated. First, the most important effects may occur in the longer run, through changes in the accumulation of human capital. Second, aggregate impact often masks an unequal impact among different economic groups. Third, the empirical evidence on which current macroeconomic models are based remains weak, in particular in the way it takes into account responses to HIV at the households' level. Microsimulation models and the recently increasing availability of robust datasets at households' level offer promising opportunities to address these issues.
UNAIDS, Geneva, Switzerland. lamontagnee@unaids.org <lamontagnee@unaids.org>
Erik
E
Lamontagne
Markus
M
Haacker
Bruno
B
Ventelou
Robert
R
Greener
D019380:Anti-HIV Agents / Q000191:economics / Q000627:therapeutic use; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000191:economics*; D004467:Economics / Q000639:trends*; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000191:economics* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D018803:Models, Economic
D019380:Anti-HIV Agents