Estimates of cigarette smoking from the NJ adult tobacco survey: real or spurious?
OBJECTIVE
To explore, post hoc, whether a large decline in smoking estimates between the 2005 and 2006 New Jersey Adult Tobacco Surveys is real or spurious given various methodological and environmental changes between the 2 time periods of data collection.


METHODS
Using multiple data sources, we explored survey timing, poststratification approach, midinterview terminations, wireless substitution, and question order.


RESULTS
Changes in question order were likely responsible for the majority of the unexpected decline in smoking prevalence; to a lesser degree, wireless substitution and midinterview terminations also likely contributed to an artificially exaggerated decline.


CONCLUSIONS
Methodological changes can artificially affect trends in prevalence estimates.
Delnevo
Cristine D
CD
UMDNJ-School of Public Health 335 George Street, Suite 2100, New Brunswick, NJ 08903, USA. delnevo@umdnj.edu
Gundersen
Daniel A
DA
Hrywna
Mary
M
Wackowski
Olivia
O
Zuwallack
Randal S
RS
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D040343:Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System; D015982:Bias; D003625:Data Collection; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009515:New Jersey / Q000453:epidemiology; D015995:Prevalence; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012907:Smoking / Q000453:epidemiology*; D055815:Young Adult