A risk score to predict bleeding in patients with acute coronary syndromes.
OBJECTIVE
The aim of this study was to develop a practical risk score to predict the risk and implications of major bleeding in acute coronary syndromes (ACS).


BACKGROUND
Hemorrhagic complications have been strongly linked with subsequent mortality in patients with ACS.


METHODS
A total of 17,421 patients with ACS (including non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction [MI], ST-segment elevation MI, and biomarker negative ACS) were studied in the ACUITY (Acute Catheterization and Urgent Intervention Triage strategY) and the HORIZONS-AMI (Harmonizing Outcomes with RevasculariZatiON and Stents in Acute Myocardial Infarction) trials. An integer risk score for major bleeding within 30 days was developed from a multivariable logistic regression model.


RESULTS
Non-coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG)-related major bleeding within 30 days occurred in 744 patients (7.3%) and had 6 independent baseline predictors (female sex, advanced age, elevated serum creatinine and white blood cell count, anemia, non-ST-segment elevation MI, or ST-segment elevation MI) and 1 treatment-related variable (use of heparin + a glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitor rather than bivalirudin alone) (model c-statistic = 0.74). The integer risk score differentiated patients with a 30-day rate of non-CABG-related major bleeding ranging from 1% to over 40%. In a time-updated covariate-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression model, major bleeding was an independent predictor of a 3.2-fold increase in mortality. The link to mortality risk was strongest for non-CABG-related Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI)-defined major bleeding followed by non-TIMI major bleeding with or without blood transfusions, whereas isolated large hematomas and CABG-related bleeding were not significantly associated with subsequent mortality.


CONCLUSIONS
Patients with ACS have marked variation in their risk of major bleeding. A simple risk score based on 6 baseline measures plus anticoagulation regimen identifies patients at increased risk for non-CABG-related bleeding and subsequent 1-year mortality, for whom appropriate treatment strategies can be implemented.
Mehran
Roxana
R
Columbia University Medical Center and Cardiovascular Research Foundation, New York, New York 10032, USA. rmehran@crf.org
Pocock
Stuart J
SJ
Nikolsky
Eugenia
E
Clayton
Tim
T
Dangas
George D
GD
Kirtane
Ajay J
AJ
Parise
Helen
H
Fahy
Martin
M
Manoukian
Steven V
SV
Feit
Frederick
F
Ohman
Magnus E
ME
Witzenbichler
Bernard
B
Guagliumi
Giulio
G
Lansky
Alexandra J
AJ
Stone
Gregg W
GW
D054058:Acute Coronary Syndrome / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000401:mortality / Q000628:therapy; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D015906:Angioplasty, Balloon, Coronary / Q000379:methods; D002423:Cause of Death; D016001:Confidence Intervals; D017023:Coronary Angiography; D001026:Coronary Artery Bypass / Q000379:methods; D004562:Electrocardiography; D005260:Female; D005343:Fibrinolytic Agents / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000627:therapeutic use; D006470:Hemorrhage / Q000139:chemically induced* / Q000401:mortality*; D006493:Heparin / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000627:therapeutic use; D017052:Hospital Mortality / Q000639:trends; D006801:Humans; D053208:Kaplan-Meier Estimate; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D010975:Platelet Aggregation Inhibitors / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000627:therapeutic use; D019039:Platelet Glycoprotein GPIIb-IIIa Complex / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000627:therapeutic use; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011336:Probability; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D016019:Survival Analysis; D016896:Treatment Outcome
D005343:Fibrinolytic Agents; D010975:Platelet Aggregation Inhibitors; D019039:Platelet Glycoprotein GPIIb-IIIa Complex; D006493:Heparin