A simple risk score effectively predicted type 2 diabetes in Iranian adult population: population-based cohort study.
BACKGROUND
Although several strategies to predict the development of diabetes have been developed the question is whether better scores can be developed without sacrificing simplicity.


METHODS
Data on 3242 participants of Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study aged ≥20 years, without diabetes at the baseline that completed a ~6-year follow-up were used to develop prediction models by running a series of logistic regression model. A simple score system was then developed based on the most important variables selected with forward stepwise approach.


RESULTS
During follow-up, 231 individuals developed diabetes. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the score system based on the model including systolic blood pressure (SBP), family history of diabetes, waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), triglyceride-to-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (TG/HDL-C) ≥3.5 and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) levels ≥5 mmol l(-1) was 0.83 (95% CI 0.80-0.86); the model discriminated subjects with substantial risk for diabetes, appreciably better than 2-h post-challenge plasma glucose (2h-PCPG) alone (0.78; 95% CI 0.75-0.82) (P < 0.001). Scoring ≥25 yielded a positive likelihood ratio of 3.27. FPG levels even in the presence of 2h-PCPG predicted incident diabetes.


CONCLUSIONS
We presented a simple model based on SBP, family history of diabetes, WHtR, TG/HDL-C and FPG; concluding that this approach is superior to relying exclusively on the 2h-PCPG for identifying individuals at high risk for developing diabetes in a Middle Eastern adult population.
Prevention of Metabolic Disorders Research Center, Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences (RIES), Shahid Beheshti University (M.C.), Tehran, Iran.
Mohammadreza
M
Bozorgmanesh
Farzad
F
Hadaegh
Somayeh
S
Ghaffari
Hadi
H
Harati
Fereidoun
F
Azizi
D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000886:Anthropometry; D001786:Blood Glucose / Q000032:analysis; D001794:Blood Pressure / Q000502:physiology; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000097:blood / Q000175:diagnosis*; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006302:Health Services Research; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007492:Iran / Q000453:epidemiology; D008075:Lipoproteins, HDL / Q000097:blood; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D018570:Risk Assessment; D014280:Triglycerides / Q000097:blood
D001786:Blood Glucose; D008075:Lipoproteins, HDL; D014280:Triglycerides