Review of models used to predict the future numbers of individuals with severe hepatitis C disease: therapeutic and cost implications.
Hepatitis C represents a major public health issue with approximately 170 million individuals infected with the virus worldwide. The greatest burden from hepatitis C virus infection will come from the long-term complications of this chronic liver disease, namely decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. If those that are responsible for the management of hepatitis C virus-infected individuals, particularly those with severe disease, are to do so effectively and efficiently, future resources need to be planned for. Accordingly, it is important that models to forecast the extent, type and cost of hepatitis C virus-related disease are developed. In this article, the authors review published forecasting studies to examine the different methods adopted and results produced.
Hutchinson
Sharon J
SJ
Health Protection Scotland, Clifton House, Clifton Place, Glasgow G3 7LN, UK and Department of Statistics and Modelling Science, University of Strathclyde, UK. sharon.hutchinson@hps.scot.nhs.uk.
Bird
Sheila M
SM
Goldberg
David J
DJ