The role of probability arguments in the history of science.
The paper examines Wesley Salmon's claim that the primary role of plausibility arguments in the history of science is to impose constraints on the prior probability of hypotheses (in the language of Bayesian confirmation theory). A detailed look at Copernicanism and Darwinism and, more briefly, Rutherford's discovery of the atomic nucleus reveals a further and arguably more important role of plausibility arguments. It resides in the consideration of likelihoods, which state how likely a given hypothesis makes a given piece of evidence. In each case the likelihoods raise the probability of one of the competing hypotheses and diminish the credibility of its rival, and this may happen either on the basis of 'old' or 'new' evidence.
Department of Social Sciences and Humanities, University of Bradford, Richmond Road, Bradford BD7 IDP, UK. F.Weinert@bradford.ac.uk
Friedel
F
Weinert
D001499:Bayes Theorem; D049669:History, 16th Century; D049670:History, 17th Century; D049672:History, 19th Century; D011336:Probability; D012586:Science / Q000266:history*