Identifying the probable timing and setting of respiratory virus infections.
OBJECTIVE
Show how detailed incubation period estimates can be used to identify and investigate potential healthcare-associated infections and dangerous diseases.


METHODS
We used the incubation period of 9 respiratory viruses to derive decision rules for distinguishing between community- and hospital-acquired infection. We developed a method, implemented in a simple spreadsheet, that can be used to investigate the exposure history of an individual patient and more specifically to identify the probable time and location of infection. Illustrative examples are used to explain and evaluate this technique.


RESULTS
If the risks of hospital and community infection are equal, 95% of patients who develop symptoms of adenovirus infection within 5 days of hospital admission will have been infected in the community, as will 95% of patients who develop symptoms within 3 days for human-coronavirus infection, 2.5 days for severe acute respiratory syndrome, 1 day for influenza A, 0.5 day for influenza B, 12 days for measles, 2 days for parainfluenza, 4 days for respiratory syncytial virus infection, and 1.5 days for rhinovirus infection. Sources of infection suggested by analysis of the symptom onset times of individual patients are consistent with those from detailed investigations.


CONCLUSIONS
This work shows how a detailed understanding of the incubation period can be an effective tool for identifying the source of infection, ultimately ensuring patient safety.
Lessler
Justin
J
Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, and the Department of Hospital Epidemiology and Infection Control, Johns Hopkins Hospital, Baltimore, Maryland 21205, USA. jlessler@jhsph.edu
Brookmeyer
Ron
R
Reich
Nicholas G
NG
Nelson
Kenrad E
KE
Cummings
Derek A T
DA
Perl
Trish M
TM
D017714:Community-Acquired Infections / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology*; D003428:Cross Infection / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology*; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D006801:Humans; D055256:Infectious Disease Incubation Period; D007902:Length of Stay; D011336:Probability; D012141:Respiratory Tract Infections / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology*; D012984:Software; D013997:Time Factors; D014777:Virus Diseases / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology*; D014780:Viruses / Q000145:classification / Q000302:isolation & purification*