Future lung cancer incidence in Poland and Finland based on forecasts on hypothetical changes in smoking habits.
OBJECTIVE
the aim is to estimate the future lung cancer incidence in Poland and Finland based on forecasts on hypothetical changes in smoking habits.


METHODS
data on population, lung cancer and smoking prevalence come from known sources. The simulation model utilized for forecasting was based on smoothing the smoking habit - specific risk ratios estimated for males and females in Europe.


RESULTS
depending on the analyzed scenario in 2030 in Poland mortality rates among men would range from 8 to 125/10(5) and among women from 7 to 47/10(5); in Finland among men 5 to 60/10(5) and among women 4 to 22/10(5).


CONCLUSIONS
the results obtained clearly indicate that cutting down on the number of smokers translates directly into a considerable reduction of the lung cancer incidence rate.
Didkowska
Joanna
J
Maria Sklodowska-Curie Memorial Cancer Center and Institute of Oncology, 5 Roentgen St, 02-781, Warsaw, Poland. didkowskaj@coi.waw.pl
Wojciechowska
Urszula
U
Koskinen
Hanna-Leena
HL
Tavilla
Andrea
A
Dyba
Tadeusz
T
Hakulinen
Timo
T
D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D003198:Computer Simulation; D005260:Female; D005387:Finland / Q000453:epidemiology; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008175:Lung Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology / Q000401:mortality; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011044:Poland / Q000453:epidemiology; D012307:Risk Factors; D017678:Sex Distribution; D012737:Sex Factors; D012907:Smoking / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000639:trends*; D016540:Smoking Cessation / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D012984:Software; D013997:Time Factors