title: Contemporary HIV diagnoses trends in Australia can be predicted by trends in unprotected anal intercourse among gay men.
abstract: Data from HIV and behavioural surveillance among gay men in Eastern Australian states in 1994-2008 showed a close relationship between trends in reported unprotected anal intercourse with casual partners (UAIC; measured in behavioural surveys) and routinely reported HIV diagnoses. Increasing UAIC was strongly associated with increasing numbers of HIV diagnoses 2 years later (P = 0.001). This suggests an important public health role of UAIC as a predictor of changes in HIV diagnoses in Australia.
authors.affiliation: National Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. izablotska@nchecr.unsw.edu.au
authors.forename: Iryna B
authors.initials: IB
authors.lastname: Zablotska
authors.forename: Garrett
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Prestage
authors.forename: Melanie
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Middleton
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Wilson
authors.forename: Andrew E
authors.initials: AE
authors.lastname: Grulich
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D005544:Forecasting; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000523:psychology; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D012309:Risk-Taking; D047568:Unsafe Sex / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*