Incidence of alcoholism in the revisited Lundby population, 1947-1997.
OBJECTIVE
The Lundby Study is a prospective longitudinal study of an unselected population consisting of 3,563 subjects. The Lundby Study started in 1947, and follow-ups were carried out in 1957, 1972, and in 1997.


METHODS
In all four surveys, semistructured interviews were performed by psychiatrists. Registers, key informants, and case notes from hospitals and outpatient clinics supplemented the interview data. Best-estimate consensus diagnoses of mental disorders were applied after gathering all available data. In the present study, age- and sex-specific incidences of any alcoholism (alcohol problems and alcohol dependence) were studied for the entire 50-year period. Alcohol dependence was studied for the periods 1947-1972 and 1972-1997. Incidences and cumulative probabilities by age were calculated and compared. Age-standardized incidence rates were also calculated for five 10-year periods for subjects 40 years of age and older.


RESULTS
Incidence rates of alcohol-use disorders show large differences across the life span. The cumulative probability for any alcoholism over the 50-year period was 24.4% for men and 4.0% for women. The incidence of any alcoholism was similar for men in both periods, whereas for women it increased in the period 1972-1997; however, this increase was not significantly on the 5% level.


CONCLUSIONS
At least one in four men was found to be at risk of developing alcohol problems or becoming dependent on alcohol during his lifetime in the present study, which is in accordance with other studies. The gender differences in alcohol-use disorders in Sweden may have decreased in later decades.
Mattisson
Cecilia
C
Institute of Clinical Sciences Lund, Department of Psychiatry, Lund University, MC-huset St Lars-området, SE-221 85 Lund, Sweden. cecilia.mattisson@med.lu.se
Bogren
Mats
M
Horstmann
Vibeke
V
Ojesjö
Leif
L
D000328:Adult; D000437:Alcoholism / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology*; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003625:Data Collection / Q000639:trends*; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011159:Population Surveillance; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D013548:Sweden / Q000453:epidemiology