title: Initial weight loss on an 800-kcal diet as a predictor of weight loss success after 8 weeks: the Diogenes study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The purpose of this study was to investigate whether pre-treatment subject characteristics and weight change during the first weeks of a low-calorie diet (LCD) can predict weight loss outcomes at the end of a controlled 8-week weight loss period in overweight and obese adults.
  
  
  METHODS
  A total of 932 overweight and obese subjects of both genders were included at eight European centers, and underwent an 8-week LCD period.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The weight loss at week 8 was positively correlated with initial body weight (Spearman's rho=0.62), height (rho=0.43), body mass index (rho=0.43), waist (rho=0.48) and hip circumference (rho=0.33), sagittal diameter (rho=0.45), fat mass (rho=0.35) and fat-free mass (rho=0.52), and gender (rho=-0.36) (all P<0.01). In the multivariate regression model, adjusted for center, only initial body weight, early weight loss (week 1) and weight loss at week 3 were significant predictors of weight loss outcome at week 8: weight loss (kg) at week 8=0.09+0.046 x baseline body weight (kg)-0.311 x weight loss (kg) at week 1+1.284 x weight loss (kg) at week 3 (R(2)=68%, P<0.0001). A weight loss of > or =2.6 kg at week 1 during the LCD period was identified as the optimal cut-off predictor for at least 10 kg weight loss at week 8.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This study suggests that initial body weight, early weight loss (week 1) and weight loss at week 3 are predictors of final weight loss during an 8-week LCD, and may be used as early biomarkers of subsequent responses to an LCD diet.
authors.affiliation: National Multiprofile Transport Hospital, Sofia, Bulgaria.
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Handjieva-Darlenska
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Handjiev
authors.forename: T M
authors.initials: TM
authors.lastname: Larsen
authors.forename: M A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: van Baak
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Jebb
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Papadaki
authors.forename: A F H
authors.initials: AF
authors.lastname: Pfeiffer
authors.forename: J A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Martinez
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Kunesova
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Holst
authors.forename: W H M
authors.initials: WH
authors.lastname: Saris
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Astrup
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001835:Body Weight / Q000502:physiology; D031204:Caloric Restriction; D004038:Diet, Reducing; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D009765:Obesity / Q000178:diet therapy*; D050177:Overweight / Q000178:diet therapy*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012016:Reference Values; D012737:Sex Factors; D013997:Time Factors; D016896:Treatment Outcome; D015431:Weight Loss / Q000502:physiology*