title: Hierarchical Bayesian Modelling for Saccharomyces cerevisiae population dynamics.
abstract: Hierarchical Bayesian Modelling is powerful however under-used to model and evaluate the risks associated with the development of pathogens in food industry, to predict exotic invasions, species extinctions and development of emerging diseases, or to assess chemical risks. Modelling population dynamics of Saccharomyces cerevisiae considering its biodiversity and other sources of variability is crucial for selecting strains meeting industrial needs. Using this approach, we studied the population dynamics of S. cerevisiae, the domesticated yeast, widely encountered in food industry, notably in brewery, vinery, bakery and distillery. We relied on a logistic equation to estimate the key variables of population growth, but we took also into account factors able to affect them, namely environmental effects, genetic diversity and measurement errors. Our probabilistic approach allowed us: (i) to model the dynamical behaviour of strains in a given condition under some uncertainty, (ii) to measure environmental effects and (iii) to evaluate genetic variability of the growth key variables.
authors.affiliation: Université Paris-Sud, UMR 0320/UMR 8120 Génétique Végétale, Gif-sur-Yvette, France. ayspor@gmail.com
authors.forename: Aymé
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Spor
authors.forename: Christine
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Dillmann
authors.forename: Shaoxiao
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Dominique
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: de Vienne
authors.forename: Delphine
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Sicard
authors.forename: Eric
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Parent
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D014644:Genetic Variation; D008954:Models, Biological; D012441:Saccharomyces cerevisiae / Q000737:chemistry / Q000235:genetics*