title: Quantifying the effects of promoting smokeless tobacco as a harm reduction strategy in the USA.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Snus (a form of smokeless tobacco) is less dangerous than cigarettes. Some health professionals argue that snus should be promoted as a component of a harm reduction strategy, while others oppose this approach. Major US tobacco companies (RJ Reynolds and Philip Morris) are marketing snus products as cigarette brand line extensions. The population effects of smokeless tobacco promotion will depend on the combined effects of changes in individual risk with population changes in tobacco use patterns.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To quantitatively evaluate the health impact of smokeless tobacco promotion as part of a harm reduction strategy in the US.
  
  
  METHODS
  A Monte Carlo simulation of a decision tree model of tobacco initiation and use was used to estimate the health effects associated with five different patterns of increased smokeless tobacco use.
  
  
  RESULTS
  With cigarette smoking having a health effect of 100, the base case scenario (based on current US prevalence rates) yields a total health effect of 24.2 (5% to 95% interval 21.7 to 26.5) and the aggressive smokeless promotion (less cigarette use and increased smokeless, health-concerned smokers switching to snus, smokers in smokefree environments switching to snus) was associated with a health effect of 30.4 (5% to 95% interval 25.9 to 35.2). The anticipated health effects for additional scenarios with lower rates of smokeless uptake also overlapped with the base case.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Promoting smokeless tobacco as a safer alternative to cigarettes is unlikely to result in substantial health benefits at a population level.
authors.affiliation: Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA.
authors.forename: Adrienne B
authors.initials: AB
authors.lastname: Mejia
authors.forename: Pamela M
authors.initials: PM
authors.lastname: Ling
authors.forename: Stanton A
authors.initials: SA
authors.lastname: Glantz
mesh_terms: D040261:Harm Reduction; D006801:Humans; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D016540:Smoking Cessation / Q000379:methods*; D014030:Tobacco, Smokeless; D014481:United States