title: Recurrent events and the exploding Cox model.
abstract: Counting process models have played an important role in survival and event history analysis for more than 30 years. Nevertheless, almost all models that are being used have a very simple structure. Analyzing recurrent events invites the application of more complex models with dynamic covariates. We discuss how to define valid models in such a setting. One has to check carefully that a suggested model is well defined as a stochastic process. We give conditions for this to hold. Some detailed discussion is presented in relation to a Cox type model, where the exponential structure combined with feedback lead to an exploding model. In general, counting process models with dynamic covariates can be formulated to avoid explosions. In particular, models with a linear feedback structure do not explode, making them useful tools in general modeling of recurrent events.
authors.affiliation: Division of Epidemiology, Department of Genes and Environment, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway. hakon.gjessing@fhi.no
authors.forename: Håkon K
authors.initials: HK
authors.lastname: Gjessing
authors.forename: Kjetil
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Røysland
authors.forename: Edsel A
authors.initials: EA
authors.lastname: Pena
authors.forename: Odd O
authors.initials: OO
authors.lastname: Aalen
mesh_terms: D003198:Computer Simulation; D003627:Data Interpretation, Statistical; D006801:Humans; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012008:Recurrence; D013269:Stochastic Processes