Evaluation of the Tyrer-Cuzick (International Breast Cancer Intervention Study) model for breast cancer risk prediction in women with atypical hyperplasia.
OBJECTIVE
Accurate breast cancer risk assessment is vital to personalize screening and risk reduction strategies. Women with atypical hyperplasia have a four-fold higher risk of breast cancer. We evaluated the performance of the Tyrer-Cuzick model, which was designed to predict 10-year risk of breast cancer development, in a well-defined cohort of women with atypia.


METHODS
The Mayo Benign Breast Disease cohort includes 9,376 women who had a benign breast biopsy between 1967 and 1991. Among those, 331 women with atypia were identified by our study pathologists. Risk factor data for the Tyrer-Cuzick model were collated for each woman and used to predict individual risk of developing invasive breast cancer within 10 years.


RESULTS
Over a median follow-up of 14.6 years, 64 (19%) of the 331 women developed invasive breast cancer. In the first 10 years after biopsy, 31 women developed invasive breast cancer whereas the Tyrer-Cuzick model predicted 58.9. The observed-to-predicted ratio was 0.53 (95% CI, 0.37 to 0.75). The concordance statistic was 0.540, revealing that the Tyrer-Cuzick model did not accurately distinguish, on an individual level, between women who developed invasive breast cancer and those who did not.


CONCLUSIONS
The Tyrer-Cuzick model significantly overestimated risk of breast cancer for women with atypia, and individual risk estimates showed poor concordance between predicted risk and invasive breast cancer development. Thus, we cannot recommend the use of the Tyrer-Cuzick model to predict 10-year breast cancer risk in women with atypical hyperplasia.
Boughey
Judy C
JC
Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN 55905, USA.
Hartmann
Lynn C
LC
Anderson
Stephanie S
SS
Degnim
Amy C
AC
Vierkant
Robert A
RA
Reynolds
Carol A
CA
Frost
Marlene H
MH
Pankratz
V Shane
VS
D000368:Aged; D001940:Breast / Q000473:pathology*; D001943:Breast Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005192:Family Health; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D006965:Hyperplasia / Q000150:complications*; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*