title: The Leicester Risk Assessment score for detecting undiagnosed Type 2 diabetes and impaired glucose regulation for use in a multiethnic UK setting.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Risk assessment scores identify those at high risk of impaired glucose regulation and Type 2 diabetes mellitus. To date no risk assessment scores that can be completed by a lay person have been developed and validated specifically for multiethnic populations in the UK.
  
  
  METHODS
  We used data on 6186 subjects aged 40-75 years from a multiethnic UK screening study (73% white European, 22% South Asian). All participants were given a 75 g oral glucose tolerance test. We developed logistic regression models for predicting current impaired glucose regulation (impaired fasting glycaemia/impaired glucose tolerance) or Type 2 diabetes mellitus using data from anthropometric measurements and self-reported questionnaires. Using the best-fitting model, we developed the Leicester Risk Assessment score. We externally validated the score using data from 3171 subjects aged 40-75 years from a separate screening study.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The components of the final model are age, ethnicity [white European vs. other (predominantly South Asian)], sex, first degree family history of diabetes, antihypertensive therapy or history of hypertension, waist circumference and body mass index. The score ranges from 0 to 47. Validating this model using the data from the second screening study gave an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 72% (95% confidence interval, 69-74%). A cut point of 16 had a sensitivity of 81% and a specificity of 45%.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The Leicester Risk Assessment score can be used to identify those at high risk of impaired glucose regulation and Type 2 diabetes mellitus in UK multiethnic populations. The score is simple (seven questions) and non-invasive.
authors.affiliation: Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK.
authors.forename: L J
authors.initials: LJ
authors.lastname: Gray
authors.forename: N A
authors.initials: NA
authors.lastname: Taub
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Khunti
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Gardiner
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Hiles
authors.forename: D R
authors.initials: DR
authors.lastname: Webb
authors.forename: B T
authors.initials: BT
authors.lastname: Srinivasan
authors.forename: M J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Davies
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001786:Blood Glucose / Q000378:metabolism*; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000208:ethnology; D005260:Female; D005951:Glucose Tolerance Test / Q000379:methods*; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008403:Mass Screening; D008875:Middle Aged; D018570:Risk Assessment; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D006113:United Kingdom / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000208:ethnology
chemical_list: D001786:Blood Glucose