title: Caries risk profiles in schoolchildren over 2 years assessed by Cariogram.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Caries risk assessment is an important tool in clinical decision making.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To evaluate longitudinal changes in caries risk profiles in a group of schoolchildren in relation to caries development.
  
  
  METHODS
  The Cariogram model was used to create caries risk profiles and to identify risk factors in 438 children being 10-11 years at baseline. The assessment was repeated after 2 years and the caries increment was recorded. The frequency of unfavourable risk factors were compared between those considered at the lowest and the highest risk.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Fifty percent of the children remained in the same risk category after 2 years. One third of the children were assessed in a higher-risk category while 18.4% showed a lower risk. Those with increased risk compared with baseline developed significantly more caries than those with an unchanged risk category. The most frequent unfavourable risk factors among those with high risk at baseline were high-salivary mutans streptococci and lactobacilli counts as well as frequent meals.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Half of the children showed a changed risk category after 2 years, for better or for worse, which suggests that regular risk assessments are needed in order to make appropriate decisions on targeted preventive care and recall intervals.
authors.affiliation: Department of Cariology, Faculty of Odontology, Malmö University, Malmö, Sweden. gunnel.hansel-petersson@mah.se
authors.forename: Gunnel Hänsel
authors.initials: GH
authors.lastname: Petersson
authors.forename: Per-Erik
authors.initials: PE
authors.lastname: Isberg
authors.forename: Svante
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Twetman
mesh_terms: D002648:Child; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004245:DMF Index; D003731:Dental Caries / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007778:Lactobacillus; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D015233:Models, Statistical; D016017:Odds Ratio; D015995:Prevalence; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012463:Saliva / Q000382:microbiology; D013295:Streptococcus mutans; D013548:Sweden / Q000453:epidemiology