The Leicester Risk Assessment score for detecting undiagnosed Type 2 diabetes and impaired glucose regulation for use in a multiethnic UK setting.
OBJECTIVE
Risk assessment scores identify those at high risk of impaired glucose regulation and Type 2 diabetes mellitus. To date no risk assessment scores that can be completed by a lay person have been developed and validated specifically for multiethnic populations in the UK.


METHODS
We used data on 6186 subjects aged 40-75 years from a multiethnic UK screening study (73% white European, 22% South Asian). All participants were given a 75 g oral glucose tolerance test. We developed logistic regression models for predicting current impaired glucose regulation (impaired fasting glycaemia/impaired glucose tolerance) or Type 2 diabetes mellitus using data from anthropometric measurements and self-reported questionnaires. Using the best-fitting model, we developed the Leicester Risk Assessment score. We externally validated the score using data from 3171 subjects aged 40-75 years from a separate screening study.


RESULTS
The components of the final model are age, ethnicity [white European vs. other (predominantly South Asian)], sex, first degree family history of diabetes, antihypertensive therapy or history of hypertension, waist circumference and body mass index. The score ranges from 0 to 47. Validating this model using the data from the second screening study gave an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 72% (95% confidence interval, 69-74%). A cut point of 16 had a sensitivity of 81% and a specificity of 45%.


CONCLUSIONS
The Leicester Risk Assessment score can be used to identify those at high risk of impaired glucose regulation and Type 2 diabetes mellitus in UK multiethnic populations. The score is simple (seven questions) and non-invasive.
Gray
L J
LJ
Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK.
Taub
N A
NA
Khunti
K
K
Gardiner
E
E
Hiles
S
S
Webb
D R
DR
Srinivasan
B T
BT
Davies
M J
MJ
D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001786:Blood Glucose / Q000378:metabolism*; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000208:ethnology; D005260:Female; D005951:Glucose Tolerance Test / Q000379:methods*; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008403:Mass Screening; D008875:Middle Aged; D018570:Risk Assessment; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D006113:United Kingdom / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000208:ethnology
D001786:Blood Glucose