title: Modeling HIV vaccines in Brazil: assessing the impact of a future HIV vaccine on reducing new infections, mortality and number of people receiving ARV.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The AIDS epidemic in Brazil remains concentrated in populations with high vulnerability to HIV infection, and the development of an HIV vaccine could make an important contribution to prevention. This study modeled the HIV epidemic and estimated the potential impact of an HIV vaccine on the number of new infections, deaths due to AIDS and the number of people receiving ARV treatment, under various scenarios.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The historical HIV prevalence was modeled using Spectrum and projections were made from 2010 to 2050 to study the impact of an HIV vaccine with 40% to 70% efficacy, and 80% coverage of adult population, specific groups such as MSM, IDU, commercial sex workers and their partners, and 15 year olds. The possibility of disinhibition after vaccination, neglecting medium- and high-risk groups, and a disease-modifying vaccine were also considered. The number of new infections and deaths were reduced by 73% and 30%, respectively, by 2050, when 80% of adult population aged 15-49 was vaccinated with a 40% efficacy vaccine. Vaccinating medium- and high-risk groups reduced new infections by 52% and deaths by 21%. A vaccine with 70% efficacy produced a great decline in new infections and deaths. Neglecting medium- and high-risk population groups as well as disinhibition of vaccinated population reduced the impact or even increased the number of new infections. Disease-modifying vaccine also contributed to reducing AIDS deaths, the need for ART and new HIV infections.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Even in a country with a concentrated epidemic and high levels of ARV coverage, such as Brazil, moderate efficacy vaccines as part of a comprehensive package of treatment and prevention could have a major impact on preventing new HIV infections and AIDS deaths, as well as reducing the number of people on ARV. Targeted vaccination strategies may be highly effective and cost-beneficial.
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Pesquisa Clínica Evandro Chagas, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
authors.forename: Maria Goretti P
authors.initials: MG
authors.lastname: Fonseca
authors.forename: Steven
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Forsythe
authors.forename: Alexandre
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Menezes
authors.forename: Shilpa
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Vuthoori
authors.forename: Cristina
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Possas
authors.forename: Valdiléa Gonçalves
authors.initials: VG
authors.lastname: Veloso
authors.forename: Valdiléa
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Veloso
authors.forename: Francisca de Fátima
authors.initials: Fde F
authors.lastname: Lucena
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Stover
mesh_terms: D016915:AIDS Vaccines / Q000276:immunology*; D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D001938:Brazil / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000276:immunology / Q000401:mortality* / Q000517:prevention & control*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D016915:AIDS Vaccines