title: Can outpatient pharmacy data identify persons with undiagnosed COPD?
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To develop and validate a method for identifying persons with undiagnosed chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) using outpatient pharmacy data.
  
  
  METHODS
  Case-control analysis of managed care administrative data with clinical validation by spirometry and standardized questionnaires.
  
  
  METHODS
  Patients with a new diagnosis of COPD were matched to 3 control subjects by age and sex. Outpatient pharmacy utilization for the 2 years prior to the initial diagnosis was captured. Drugs associated with an eventual diagnosis of COPD were identified using conditional logistic regression, and then entered into a predictive algorithm using discriminant function analysis. The algorithm was tested in a second population from the same health plan and externally validated using 2 large multicenter databases. This system was clinically validated by testing 100 individuals identified by the algorithm with spirometry plus health status and respiratory symptoms questionnaires.
  
  
  RESULTS
  COPD patients used significantly more antibiotics, cardiac medications, and respiratory drugs than their matched controls. The final algorithm identified COPD patients with a sensitivity of 60% and specificity of 70%, without the benefit of knowing any patient's smoking history. Of the first 100 persons identified by the algorithm as being at risk and recruited for testing, 25 were proven to have previously undiagnosed COPD.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Pharmacy utilization increases in the years prior to initial COPD diagnosis. Algorithms based on pharmacy utilization can efficiently identify persons at risk for undiagnosed COPD.
authors.affiliation: Lovelace Clinic Foundation, 2309 Renard Pl SE, Ste 103, Albuquerque, NM 87106-4264, USA. doug.mapel@lcfresearch.org
authors.forename: Douglas W
authors.initials: DW
authors.lastname: Mapel
authors.forename: Hans
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Petersen
authors.forename: Melissa H
authors.initials: MH
authors.lastname: Roberts
authors.forename: Judith S
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Hurley
authors.forename: Floyd J
authors.initials: FJ
authors.lastname: Frost
authors.forename: Jeno P
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Marton
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000465:Algorithms; D000553:Ambulatory Care / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D003157:Community Pharmacy Services; D003951:Diagnostic Errors; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009516:New Mexico / Q000453:epidemiology; D029424:Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology