title: Predictive value of procalcitonin, interleukin-6, and C-reactive protein for survival in postoperative patients with severe sepsis.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To prospectively evaluate the performance of procalcitonin (PCT), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and C-reactive protein (CRP) as percentage of baseline (POB) in predicting hospital survival, we studied 64 consecutive, postoperative patients with severe sepsis.
  
  
  METHODS
  Plasma PCT, IL-6, and CRP were serially measured from day 1 (onset of sepsis) to day 14 in parallel with clinical data until day 28. Multivariate logistic regression and univariate analysis of predictive accuracy of PCT-, IL-6-, and CRP-POB were performed. Newly derived binary prediction rules were evaluated by calculating sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In survivors, PCT and IL-6 significantly decreased from days 1 to 14, whereas CRP did not. In nonsurvivors, the inflammation markers mostly increased within the second week. At day 7, logistic regression analysis revealed PCT-POB as an independent determinant for survival. Especially, PCT-POB not exceeding 50% and PCT-POB not exceeding 25% with CRP-POB not exceeding 75% on day 7 indicated a favorable outcome with a positive predictive value/sensitivity of 75%/97% and 92%/67%, respectively. In comparison, pretest likelihood to survive by day 28 and observed survival rate were 60% and 67%, respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Prediction rules of decrease in PCT-POB on day 7 in combination with CRP-POB may serve to monitor efficacy and guide duration of therapy in critically ill patients.
authors.affiliation: Department of Anesthesiology, University of Erlangen-Nuernberg, Erlangen D-91054, Germany. klaus.tschaikowsky@rzmail.uni-erlangen.de
authors.forename: Klaus
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Tschaikowsky
authors.forename: Monika
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Hedwig-Geissing
authors.forename: Giovanni G
authors.initials: GG
authors.lastname: Braun
authors.forename: Martin
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Radespiel-Troeger
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000704:Analysis of Variance; D015415:Biomarkers / Q000032:analysis / Q000097:blood; D002097:C-Reactive Protein / Q000032:analysis*; D002116:Calcitonin / Q000097:blood*; D015740:Calcitonin Gene-Related Peptide; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015850:Interleukin-6 / Q000097:blood*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011184:Postoperative Period; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D011498:Protein Precursors / Q000097:blood*; D018805:Sepsis / Q000097:blood* / Q000401:mortality; D016019:Survival Analysis; D013997:Time Factors
chemical_list: D015415:Biomarkers; C000606589:CALCA protein, human; D015850:Interleukin-6; D011498:Protein Precursors; D002116:Calcitonin; D002097:C-Reactive Protein; D015740:Calcitonin Gene-Related Peptide