The arithmetics of risk.
In the following note the basic principles of event data analysis and censored data will be explained. The concept of risk will be defined. The interaction of estimation and confidence interval will be discussed. We explain the estimator of risk and show how to use it for the calculation of probability statements. An example is given to make the formal statements more explicit. We define the KaplanMeier estimator and compare it to the risk concept. Two common fallacies in risk assessment are discussed.
Mansmann
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Institute of Medical Statistics, Free University; Berlin, Germany.