title: Factors associated with kidney disease progression and mortality in a referred CKD population.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Knowing how kidney disease progresses is important for decision making in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and for designing clinical services.
  
  
  METHODS
  Prospective cohort study.
  
  
  METHODS
  We examined renal function trajectories in CRISIS (Chronic Renal Insufficiency Standards Implementation Study), in which 1,325 patients with CKD stages 3-5 and mean age of 65.1 years were followed up prospectively for a median of 26 months after referral to a regional nephrology center in the United Kingdom. By protocol, estimated glomerular filtration rate was determined every 12 months.
  
  
  METHODS
  CKD stage defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate ≥ 45 (stage 3a), 30-44 (3b), 15-29 (4), and < 15 (5) mL/min/1.73 m².
  
  
  RESULTS
  Onset of renal replacement therapy (RRT), death, the composite end point of RRT or death, or decreasing CKD stage.
  
  
  RESULTS
  During a median follow-up of 26 months, 13% reached the end point of RRT (5.1 events/100 patient-years), 20% died (9.6 deaths/100 patient-years), and 33% reached the combined end point of RRT or death (14.7 events/100 patient-years). For stage 3a, baseline prevalence and annual probabilities of decreasing CKD stage, RRT, and death were 18.0%, 0.41, 0.01, and 0.02, respectively. Corresponding values for stage 3b were 32.5%, 0.22, < 0.01, and 0.06; for stage 4, 36.5%, 0.17, 0.03, and 0.10; and for stage 5, 13.2%, zero (by definition), 0.31, and 0.08, respectively. Markov model projections suggested a steady decrease for proportions with stages 3a, 3b, and 4; a steady increase for death and RRT; and a biphasic pattern for (non-RRT) stage 5, with a plateau in the first 2 years followed by a steady decrease.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Single-center observational study.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This study suggests that death and RRT are the dominant outcomes in patients referred for management of CKD and that most patients spend comparatively little time in late stages without RRT.
authors.affiliation: Vascular Research Group, University of Manchester, Manchester Academic Health Sciences Centre, Salford Royal Hospital Foundation Trust, Salford, UK. richard.hoefield@manchester.ac.uk
authors.forename: Richard A
authors.initials: RA
authors.lastname: Hoefield
authors.forename: Philip A
authors.initials: PA
authors.lastname: Kalra
authors.forename: Patricia
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Baker
authors.forename: Beverley
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Lane
authors.forename: John P
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: New
authors.forename: Donal J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: O'Donoghue
authors.forename: Robert N
authors.initials: RN
authors.lastname: Foley
authors.forename: Rachel J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Middleton
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D002908:Chronic Disease; D015331:Cohort Studies; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D005919:Glomerular Filtration Rate / Q000502:physiology; D006801:Humans; D007674:Kidney Diseases / Q000401:mortality* / Q000503:physiopathology* / Q000628:therapy; D008297:Male; D008390:Markov Chains; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012017:Referral and Consultation; D017582:Renal Replacement Therapy; D012307:Risk Factors