title: Future trends in computer waste generation in India.
abstract: The objective of this paper is to estimate the future projection of computer waste in India and to subsequently analyze their flow at the end of their useful phase. For this purpose, the study utilizes the logistic model-based approach proposed by Yang and Williams to forecast future trends in computer waste. The model estimates future projection of computer penetration rate utilizing their first lifespan distribution and historical sales data. A bounding analysis on the future carrying capacity was simulated using the three parameter logistic curve. The observed obsolete generation quantities from the extrapolated penetration rates are then used to model the disposal phase. The results of the bounding analysis indicate that in the year 2020, around 41-152 million units of computers will become obsolete. The obsolete computer generation quantities are then used to estimate the End-of-Life outflows by utilizing a time-series multiple lifespan model. Even a conservative estimate of the future recycling capacity of PCs will reach upwards of 30 million units during 2025. Apparently, more than 150 million units could be potentially recycled in the upper bound case. However, considering significant future investment in the e-waste recycling sector from all stakeholders in India, we propose a logistic growth in the recycling rate and estimate the requirement of recycling capacity between 60 and 400 million units for the lower and upper bound case during 2025. Finally, we compare the future obsolete PC generation amount of the US and India.
authors.affiliation: Mechanical Engineering Group, Birla Institute of Technology and Science, Pilani 333 031, Rajasthan, India. dwivedy_m@bits-pilani.ac.in
authors.forename: Maheshwar
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Dwivedy
authors.forename: R K
authors.initials: RK
authors.lastname: Mittal
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D003201:Computers; D004581:Electronics; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D007194:India; D016015:Logistic Models; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011157:Population Dynamics; D059027:Recycling; D012037:Refuse Disposal / Q000379:methods*; D013997:Time Factors