title: Prediction, assessment of the Rift Valley fever activity in East and Southern Africa 2006-2008 and possible vector control strategies.
abstract: Historical outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) since the early 1950s have been associated with cyclical patterns of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which results in elevated and widespread rainfall over the RVF endemic areas of Africa. Using satellite measurements of global and regional elevated sea surface temperatures, elevated rainfall, and satellite derived-normalized difference vegetation index data, we predicted with lead times of 2-4 months areas where outbreaks of RVF in humans and animals were expected and occurred in the Horn of Africa, Sudan, and Southern Africa at different time periods from September 2006 to March 2008. Predictions were confirmed by entomological field investigations of virus activity and by reported cases of RVF in human and livestock populations. This represents the first series of prospective predictions of RVF outbreaks and provides a baseline for improved early warning, control, response planning, and mitigation into the future.
authors.affiliation: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Branch, Greenbelt, Maryland 20771, USA. Asaph.Anyamba-1@nasa.gov
authors.forename: Assaf
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Anyamba
authors.forename: Kenneth J
authors.initials: KJ
authors.lastname: Linthicum
authors.forename: Jennifer
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Small
authors.forename: Seth C
authors.initials: SC
authors.lastname: Britch
authors.forename: Edwin
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Pak
authors.forename: Stephane
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: de La Rocque
authors.forename: Pierre
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Formenty
authors.forename: Allen W
authors.initials: AW
authors.lastname: Hightower
authors.forename: Robert F
authors.initials: RF
authors.lastname: Breiman
authors.forename: Jean-Paul
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Chretien
authors.forename: Compton J
authors.initials: CJ
authors.lastname: Tucker
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Schnabel
authors.forename: Rosemary
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Sang
authors.forename: Karl
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Haagsma
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Latham
authors.forename: Henry B
authors.initials: HB
authors.lastname: Lewandowski
authors.forename: Salih Osman
authors.initials: SO
authors.lastname: Magdi
authors.forename: Mohamed Ally
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Mohamed
authors.forename: Patrick M
authors.initials: PM
authors.lastname: Nguku
authors.forename: Jean-Marc
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Reynes
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Swanepoel
mesh_terms: D000330:Aedes / Q000254:growth & development / Q000821:virology; D000351:Africa, Eastern / Q000453:epidemiology; D000353:Africa, Southern / Q000453:epidemiology; D000818:Animals; D000829:Animals, Domestic / Q000821:virology; D002980:Climate; D003465:Culex / Q000254:growth & development / Q000821:virology; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000254:growth & development / Q000821:virology; D011891:Rain; D012295:Rift Valley Fever / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000662:veterinary; D018570:Risk Assessment; D017215:Satellite Communications; D013696:Temperature