title: Controlling influenza A (H1N1) in China: Bayesian or frequentist approach.
abstract: This article discusses two approaches to controlling the newly identified influenza A (H1N1): via Bayesian and frequentist statistical reasoning. This study reviewed the measures implemented in China as an example to illustrate these two approaches. Since May 2009, China has deployed strict controlling mechanisms based on the strong prior Bayesian assumption that the origin of influenza A (H1N1) was from outside China and as such strict border control would keep the virus from entering China. After more than 4 months of hard work by Chinese health professionals and officials, the number of confirmed influenza A (H1N1) has increased steadily against the expectations of the general public. Taking into account the great financial burden in maintaining strict measures, Chinese health authorities have slowly adjusted their policies of controlling influenza A (H1N1) in China according to frequentist reasoning since July 2009.
authors.affiliation: University of Texas School of Public Health, Houston, TX 77030, USA. dejian.lai@uth.tmc.edu
authors.forename: Dejian
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Lai
authors.forename: Chiehwen Ed
authors.initials: CE
authors.lastname: Hsu
authors.forename: Jay H
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Glasser
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D003627:Data Interpretation, Statistical; D006801:Humans; D053118:Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D058873:Pandemics / Q000517:prevention & control*