title: Performance of criteria for selecting evolutionary models in phylogenetics: a comprehensive study based on simulated datasets.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Explicit evolutionary models are required in maximum-likelihood and Bayesian inference, the two methods that are overwhelmingly used in phylogenetic studies of DNA sequence data. Appropriate selection of nucleotide substitution models is important because the use of incorrect models can mislead phylogenetic inference. To better understand the performance of different model-selection criteria, we used 33,600 simulated data sets to analyse the accuracy, precision, dissimilarity, and biases of the hierarchical likelihood-ratio test, Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, and decision theory.
  
  
  RESULTS
  We demonstrate that the Bayesian information criterion and decision theory are the most appropriate model-selection criteria because of their high accuracy and precision. Our results also indicate that in some situations different models are selected by different criteria for the same dataset. Such dissimilarity was the highest between the hierarchical likelihood-ratio test and Akaike information criterion, and lowest between the Bayesian information criterion and decision theory. The hierarchical likelihood-ratio test performed poorly when the true model included a proportion of invariable sites, while the Bayesian information criterion and decision theory generally exhibited similar performance to each other.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Our results indicate that the Bayesian information criterion and decision theory should be preferred for model selection. Together with model-adequacy tests, accurate model selection will serve to improve the reliability of phylogenetic inference and related analyses.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.
authors.forename: Arong
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Luo
authors.forename: Huijie
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Qiao
authors.forename: Yanzhou
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.forename: Weifeng
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Shi
authors.forename: Simon Yw
authors.initials: SY
authors.lastname: Ho
authors.forename: Weijun
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.forename: Aibing
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.forename: Chaodong
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Zhu
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D003198:Computer Simulation; D019143:Evolution, Molecular; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D008957:Models, Genetic; D010802:Phylogeny