Prediction, assessment of the Rift Valley fever activity in East and Southern Africa 2006-2008 and possible vector control strategies.
Historical outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) since the early 1950s have been associated with cyclical patterns of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which results in elevated and widespread rainfall over the RVF endemic areas of Africa. Using satellite measurements of global and regional elevated sea surface temperatures, elevated rainfall, and satellite derived-normalized difference vegetation index data, we predicted with lead times of 2-4 months areas where outbreaks of RVF in humans and animals were expected and occurred in the Horn of Africa, Sudan, and Southern Africa at different time periods from September 2006 to March 2008. Predictions were confirmed by entomological field investigations of virus activity and by reported cases of RVF in human and livestock populations. This represents the first series of prospective predictions of RVF outbreaks and provides a baseline for improved early warning, control, response planning, and mitigation into the future.
Anyamba
Assaf
A
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Branch, Greenbelt, Maryland 20771, USA. Asaph.Anyamba-1@nasa.gov
Linthicum
Kenneth J
KJ
Small
Jennifer
J
Britch
Seth C
SC
Pak
Edwin
E
de La Rocque
Stephane
S
Formenty
Pierre
P
Hightower
Allen W
AW
Breiman
Robert F
RF
Chretien
Jean-Paul
JP
Tucker
Compton J
CJ
Schnabel
David
D
Sang
Rosemary
R
Haagsma
Karl
K
Latham
Mark
M
Lewandowski
Henry B
HB
Magdi
Salih Osman
SO
Mohamed
Mohamed Ally
MA
Nguku
Patrick M
PM
Reynes
Jean-Marc
JM
Swanepoel
Robert
R
D000330:Aedes / Q000254:growth & development / Q000821:virology; D000351:Africa, Eastern / Q000453:epidemiology; D000353:Africa, Southern / Q000453:epidemiology; D000818:Animals; D000829:Animals, Domestic / Q000821:virology; D002980:Climate; D003465:Culex / Q000254:growth & development / Q000821:virology; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000254:growth & development / Q000821:virology; D011891:Rain; D012295:Rift Valley Fever / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000662:veterinary; D018570:Risk Assessment; D017215:Satellite Communications; D013696:Temperature