[Application of exponential smoothing method in prediction and warning of epidemic mumps].
OBJECTIVE
To analyze the daily data of epidemic Mumps in a province from 2004 to 2008 and set up exponential smoothing model for the prediction.


METHODS
To predict and warn the epidemic mumps in 2008 through calculating 7-day moving summation and removing the effect of weekends to the data of daily reported mumps cases during 2005-2008 and exponential summation to the data from 2005 to 2007.


RESULTS
The performance of Holt-Winters exponential smoothing is good. The result of warning sensitivity was 76.92%, specificity was 83.33%, and timely rate was 80%.


CONCLUSIONS
It is practicable to use exponential smoothing method to warn against epidemic Mumps.
Shi
Yun-ping
YP
Public Health School of Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 102200, China.
Ma
Jia-qi
JQ
D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D018563:Disease Notification; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D006801:Humans; D009107:Mumps / Q000453:epidemiology*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012621:Seasons