Peering into the future of American longevity.
Extract: The trend in the life expectancy of humans during the past thousand years has been generally characterized by a slow, steady increase -- though this pattern is frequently punctuated by volatility in death rates caused by epidemic and pandemic infectious diseases, famines, and war. This volatility was dramatically curtailed in the mid-19th century as infectious agents swiftly succumbed to improved living conditions, advances in public health, and medical interventions. During the past 30 years in the United States, the rise in life expectancy at birth has decelerated relative to this historic pattern, and gains in life expectancy at older ages are now much smaller than they were in previous decades. How much higher can life expectancy rise? This is not just an academic question. The answer formulated today will have substantial influence on the rate at which taxes are levied and the potential solvency of age-entitlement programs. Some researchers predict that life expectancy will rise dramatically in this century, leading public policy makers to raise their estimates of how long Americans will live. It is predicted that historical trends in rising life expectancy will continue throughout this century, fueled primarily by anticipated but yet-to-exist advances in biomedical technology. Some have even predicted that aging itself will soon be mastered by science, enabling people to live well beyond 100 years.
Olshansky
S Jay
SJ
School of Public Health, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL 60612, USA.
Passaro
Douglas J
DJ
Hershow
Ronald C
RC
Layden
Jennifer
J
Brody
Jacob
J
Carnes
Bruce A
BA
Hayflick
Leonard
L
Butler
Robert N
RN
Allison
David B
DB
Ludwig
David S
DS