title: Low-trauma fractures indicate increased risk of hip fracture in frail older people.
abstract: This study aims to investigate the risk of subsequent fractures after low-trauma fracture in frail older people. A total of 1412 elderly residents (mean age 86.2 years, SD 7.0 years, female 77%) were recruited from aged care facilities in Australia. Residents were assessed and then followed for any fracture for 2 years and hip fractures for at least 5 years. Residents with and without a newly acquired fracture in the first 2 years were compared for risk of subsequent hip fracture. Residents with a nonhip fracture in the first 2 years had an increased risk of subsequent hip fracture for about 2.5 years, whereas those with a hip fracture had a similar risk over the whole period compared with those with no fracture. During these 2.5 years, 60, 28, and 6 subsequent hip fractures occurred in the nonfracture group (n = 953), the nonhip fracture group (n = 194), and the hip fracture group (n = 101), respectively, resulting in the probability of subsequent hip fracture of 8.0%, 19.9%, and 10.4%, respectively. Compared with the nonfracture group, the hazard ratio (HR) was 2.82 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.73-4.59; p < .001] for the nonhip fracture group and 1.48 (95% CI 0.63-3.49, p = .37) for the hip fracture group after adjusting for age, sex, residence type, calcaneal broadband ultrasound attenuation, fracture history, weight, lower leg length, immobility, cognitive function, and medications. Frail institutionalized older people with newly acquired fractures are at increased risk of subsequent hip fracture for the next few years. Accordingly, despite their advanced age, they are a high-priority target group to investigate interventions that might reduce the risk of hip fracture.
authors: Institute of Bone and Joint Research, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia. jschen@med.usyd.edu.au
authors: Jian Sheng
authors: JS
authors: Chen
authors: Ian D
authors: ID
authors: Cameron
authors: Judy M
authors: JM
authors: Simpson
authors: Markus J
authors: MJ
authors: Seibel
authors: Lyn M
authors: LM
authors: March
authors: Robert G
authors: RG
authors: Cumming
authors: Stephen R
authors: SR
authors: Lord
authors: Philip N
authors: PN
authors: Sambrook
mesh_terms: D000058:Accidental Falls / Q000517:prevention & control; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001315:Australia; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D016330:Frail Elderly; D006620:Hip Fractures / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000503:physiopathology*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012306:Risk; D013997:Time Factors