title: Impact of routine transoesophageal echocardiography on safety, outcomes, and cost of pulmonary vein ablation: inferences drawn from a decision analysis model.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The practice of routine vs. selective transoesophageal echocardiography (TEE) surveillance for left atrial appendage or intracavitary thrombus prior to pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) varies widely as evidence to guide this decision in terms of important clinical outcomes is lacking.
  
  
  RESULTS
  We constructed a decision analysis model to compare the cost-effectiveness of routine TEE for detection of left atrial thrombus vs. no TEE. The model incorporated health outcomes and costs. Markov methodology was used to follow patients as they transition through varying health states. We examined a hypothetical cohort of patients with symptomatic atrial fibrillation suitable for PVI, and expected outcomes were modelled over a period of 2 years. Simulated patients (SPs) undergoing a strategy of a routine TEE experienced significantly fewer transient ischemic attacks (TIAs) [OR 0.28 (0.22-0.37)], and debilitating strokes [OR 0.23 (0.15-0.33)]. Routine TEE led to an absolute risk reduction for stroke of 1.2% [number needed to treat (NNT) 84 (79-100)] and 1.9% for TIA [NNT 53 (48-59)]. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for TEE was $226,608 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). The ICER for TEE among high-risk SPs, with pre-existing clot in the left atrium, was $2232 per QALY.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Decision analysis and microsimulation suggest that routine use of TEE in an unselected population prior to PVI lowers the incidence of cerebral thrombo-embolic events but with considerable cost per QALY.
authors: Division of Cardiology, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada. lgula@uwo.ca
authors: Lorne J
authors: LJ
authors: Gula
authors: David
authors: D
authors: Massel
authors: Damian P
authors: DP
authors: Redfearn
authors: Andrew D
authors: AD
authors: Krahn
authors: Raymond
authors: R
authors: Yee
authors: George J
authors: GJ
authors: Klein
authors: Allan C
authors: AC
authors: Skanes
mesh_terms: D001281:Atrial Fibrillation / Q000601:surgery*; D017115:Catheter Ablation / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000191:economics*; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D017548:Echocardiography, Transesophageal / Q000191:economics*; D006801:Humans; D002546:Ischemic Attack, Transient / Q000453:epidemiology*; D008390:Markov Chains; D011667:Pulmonary Veins / Q000601:surgery*; D011788:Quality of Life; D019057:Quality-Adjusted Life Years; D020521:Stroke / Q000453:epidemiology*; D013927:Thrombosis / Q000453:epidemiology; D016896:Treatment Outcome