An epidemiological analysis of the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Miyazaki, Japan, 2010.
An epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease occurred in Miyazaki, Japan, beginning in late March 2010. Here, we document the descriptive epidemiological features and investigate the between-farm transmission dynamics. As of 10 July 2010, a total of 292 infected premises have been confirmed with a cumulative incidence for cattle and pig herds of 8.5% and 36.4%, respectively, for the whole of Miyazaki prefecture. Pig herds were more likely to be infected than cattle herds (odds ratio = 4.3 [95% confidence interval (CI): 3.2, 5.7]). Modelling analysis suggested that the relative susceptibility of a cattle herd is 4.2 times greater than a typical pig herd (95% CI: 3.9, 4.5), while the relative infectiousness of a pig herd is estimated to be 8.0 times higher than a cattle herd (95% CI: 5.0, 13.6). The epidemic peak occurred around mid-May, after which the incidence started to decline and the effective reproduction numbers from late May were mostly less than unity, although a vaccination programme in late May could have masked symptoms in infected animals. The infected premises were geographically confined to limited areas in Miyazaki, but sporadic long-distance transmissions were seen within the prefecture. Given that multiple outbreaks in Far East Asian countries have occurred since early 2010, continued monitoring and surveillance is deemed essential.
Nishiura
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PRESTO, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Saitama, Japan. h.nishiura@uu.nl
Omori
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D000383:Agriculture; D000818:Animals; D002417:Cattle; D002418:Cattle Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000821:virology; D003140:Communicable Disease Control; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000662:veterinary; D005536:Foot-and-Mouth Disease / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D007564:Japan / Q000453:epidemiology; D016019:Survival Analysis; D013552:Swine; D013553:Swine Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000821:virology; D014765:Viral Vaccines
D014765:Viral Vaccines