title: Predicting response to leuprolide of women with premenstrual dysphoric disorder by daily mood rating dynamics.
abstract: Approximately 60-70 percent of women with premenstrual dysphoric disorder (PMDD) show symptomatic improvement in response to the GnRH agonist leuprolide acetate, which suppresses ovarian function. However, it has been very difficult to either predict or understand why some women respond, while others do not. We applied several complementary statistical methods to the dynamics of pre-treatment mood rating data to determine possible predictors of response for women with PMDD. We compared responders (n = 33) to nonresponders (n = 12) in clinical trials of leuprolide (three months in duration) as a treatment for PMDD, on the basis of pre-trial daily self-ratings of sadness, anxiety, and irritability. We analyzed both sequential irregularity (approximate entropy, ApEn) and a quantification of spikiness of these series, as well as a composite measure that equally weighted these two statistics. Both ApEn and Spikiness were significantly smaller for responders than nonresponders (P ≤ 0.005); the composite measure was smaller for responders compared with nonresponders (P ≤ 0.002) and discriminated between the subgroups with high sensitivity and specificity. In contrast, mean symptom levels were indistinct between the subgroups. Relatively regular and non-spiky pre-trial dynamics of mood ratings predict a positive response to leuprolide by women with PMDD with high probability, moreover based on typically less than 3 months of daily records. The statistical measures may have broad and direct applicability to behavioral studies for many psychiatric disorders, facilitating both accurate diagnosis and the prediction of response to treatment.
authors: stevepincus@alum.mit.edu
authors: Steven M
authors: SM
authors: Pincus
authors: Shaista
authors: S
authors: Alam
authors: David R
authors: DR
authors: Rubinow
authors: Chaya G
authors: CG
authors: Bhuvaneswar
authors: Peter J
authors: PJ
authors: Schmidt
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D019277:Entropy; D005260:Female; D005300:Fertility Agents, Female / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D006728:Hormones / Q000097:blood; D019584:Hot Flashes / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000209:etiology; D006801:Humans; D016729:Leuprolide / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D019964:Mood Disorders / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000209:etiology*; D017711:Nonlinear Dynamics; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011293:Premenstrual Syndrome / Q000097:blood / Q000150:complications* / Q000188:drug therapy*; D011569:Psychiatric Status Rating Scales; D018709:Statistics, Nonparametric; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D005300:Fertility Agents, Female; D006728:Hormones; D016729:Leuprolide