Forecasting the morbidity and mortality associated with prevalent cases of pre-cirrhotic chronic hepatitis C in the United States.
BACKGROUND
Without diagnosis and antiviral therapy, many patients with chronic hepatitis C infections will develop end-stage liver disease and die from complications.


OBJECTIVE
To evaluate the future impacts of preventive interventions and treatment advances, this paper forecasts a baseline estimate of the future morbidity and mortality of prevalent hepatitis C when left untreated.


METHODS
We simulated the future disease progression and death for all Americans with prevalent hepatitis C in 2005. To validate the model, we used past seroprevalence to forecast contemporary outcomes. We used the validated model to forecast future cases of end-stage liver disease, transplants, and deaths from 2010 to 2060, and we estimated credible intervals using Monte Carlo simulation.


RESULTS
When programmed with past data, our model predicted current levels of hepatitis C outcomes with accuracy between ±1% and 13%. Morbidity and mortality from hepatitis C will rise from 2010 to a peak between the years 2030 and 2035. We forecasted a peak of 38,600 incident cases of end-stage liver disease; 3200 referrals for transplant; and 36,100 deaths.


CONCLUSIONS
Because current rates of screening and treatment are low, future morbidity and mortality from hepatitis C are likely to increase substantially without public health interventions to increase treatment.
Rein
David B
DB
RTI International, Atlanta, GA, United States. drein@rti.org
Wittenborn
John S
JS
Weinbaum
Cindy M
CM
Sabin
Miriam
M
Smith
Bryce D
BD
Lesesne
Sarah B
SB
D000328:Adult; D058345:Asymptomatic Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D003198:Computer Simulation; D018450:Disease Progression; D058625:End Stage Liver Disease / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D019698:Hepatitis C, Chronic / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D006801:Humans; D016031:Liver Transplantation / Q000639:trends*; D008297:Male; D008390:Markov Chains; D008875:Middle Aged; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D009017:Morbidity / Q000639:trends; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology; D055815:Young Adult