title: Climate not to blame for African civil wars.
abstract: Vocal actors within policy and practice contend that environmental variability and shocks, such as drought and prolonged heat waves, drive civil wars in Africa. Recently, a widely publicized scientific article appears to substantiate this claim. This paper investigates the empirical foundation for the claimed relationship in detail. Using a host of different model specifications and alternative measures of drought, heat, and civil war, the paper concludes that climate variability is a poor predictor of armed conflict. Instead, African civil wars can be explained by generic structural and contextual conditions: prevalent ethno-political exclusion, poor national economy, and the collapse of the Cold War system.
authors.affiliation: Centre for the Study of Civil War, Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), 0134 Oslo, Norway. halvardb@prio.no
authors.forename: Halvard
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Buhaug
references.citation: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2006 Mar 7;103(10):3510-7
references.pmid: 16473945
references.citation: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2007 Dec 4;104(49):19214-9
references.pmid: 18048343
references.citation: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2009 Sep 15;106(37):15555-9
references.pmid: 19805213
references.citation: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2009 Dec 8;106(49):20670-4
references.pmid: 19934048