title: Risk index proposal to predict atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common complication following cardiac surgery and is associated with an increased patient morbidity and mortality. The objective of this study was to develop a risk index proposal to predict AF after cardiac surgery.
  
  
  METHODS
  A prospective observational study in that 452 patients were selected to assess the incidence and risk factors associated with postoperative AF. Only patients following cardiac surgery were selected. Continuous cardiac monitor and daily electrocardiogram were assessed. The most associated in a multivariable logistic model were selected for the risk index.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The average incidence of AF was 22.1%. The most associated factors with AF were: patients older than 75 years of age, mitral valve disease, no use of a beta blocker, withdrawal of a beta-blocker and a positive fluid balance. The absence risk factor determined 4.6% chance to postoperative AF, and for one, two and three or more risk factors, the chance was 16.6%, 25.9% and 46.3%, respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In a multivariable logistic model was possible to develop a risk index proposal to predict postoperative AF with a major risk of 46.3% in the presence of three or more risk factors.
authors.affiliation: Unidade Pós-Operatória, FUC. roger.gs@terra.com.br
authors.forename: Rogério Gomes da
authors.initials: RG
authors.lastname: Silva
authors.forename: Gustavo Glotz de
authors.initials: GG
authors.lastname: Lima
authors.forename: Nelma
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Guerra
authors.forename: André Vicente
authors.initials: AV
authors.lastname: Bigolin
authors.forename: Lucas Celia
authors.initials: LC
authors.lastname: Petersen
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D001281:Atrial Fibrillation / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology*; D006348:Cardiac Surgical Procedures / Q000009:adverse effects*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors