Road traffic fatalities in Qatar, Jordan and the UAE: estimates using regression analysis and the relationship with economic growth.
Smeed's equation is a widely used model for prediction of traffic fatalities but has been inadequate for use in developing countries. We applied regression analysis to time-series data on vehicles, exponential models for fatality prediction, producing an average absolute error of 20.9% for Qatar, 10.9% for population and traffic fatalities in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Jordan and Qatar. The data were fitted to Jordan and 5.5% for the UAE. We found a strong linear relationship between gross domestic product and fatality rate.
Bener
A
A
Department of Public Health, Weill Cornell Medical College of Qatar, Doha, Qatar. abener@hmc.org.qa
Hussain
S J
SJ
Al-Malki
M a
Ma
Shotar
M M
MM
Al-Said
M F
MF
Jadaan
K S
KS
D000063:Accidents, Traffic / Q000401:mortality* / Q000639:trends; D001336:Automobiles / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D015982:Bias; D002423:Cause of Death; D003906:Developing Countries / Q000191:economics*; D057217:Economic Development / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D007597:Jordan / Q000453:epidemiology; D016018:Least-Squares Analysis; D016014:Linear Models; D011158:Population Growth; D011159:Population Surveillance; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011780:Qatar / Q000453:epidemiology; D012044:Regression Analysis; D014479:United Arab Emirates / Q000453:epidemiology