title: Baseline event rate, the Concorde fallacy, and the topography of cardiac risk.
abstract: Cardiac risk stratification is the attempt to delineate who is at risk of cardiac event and who is not. Increasingly, the medical literature is filled with novel methods and markers of baseline risk assessment. This body of literature has been criticized broadly for making claims beyond what is statistically justified. In this hypothesis, we will explore an alterative explanation for the limitations of baseline risk assessment. I will contend that current risk models commit a logical error called the Concorde fallacy. The role of risk topography will be suggested as a novel method to rescue cardiac risk models.
authors.affiliation: Department of Medicine, Northwestern University, 333 E Ontario 901B, Chicago, IL 60611, USA. v-prasad@md.northwestern.edu
authors.forename: Vinay
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Prasad
mesh_terms: D003625:Data Collection / Q000379:methods*; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009203:Myocardial Infarction / Q000453:epidemiology*; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*