title: A predictive model to allocate frequent service users of community-based mental health services to different packages of care.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To develop predictive models to allocate patients into frequent and low service users groups within the Italian Community-based Mental Health Services (CMHSs). To allocate frequent users to different packages of care, identifying the costs of these packages.
  
  
  METHODS
  Socio-demographic and clinical data and GAF scores at baseline were collected for 1250 users attending five CMHSs. All psychiatric contacts made by these patients during six months were recorded. A logistic regression identified frequent service users predictive variables. Multinomial logistic regression identified variables able to predict the most appropriate package of care. A cost function was utilised to estimate costs.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Frequent service users were 49%, using nearly 90% of all contacts. The model classified correctly 80% of users in the frequent and low users groups. Three packages of care were identified: Basic Community Treatment (4,133 Euro per six months); Intensive Community Treatment (6,180 Euro) and Rehabilitative Community Treatment (11,984 Euro) for 83%, 6% and 11% of frequent service users respectively. The model was found to be accurate for 85% of users.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  It is possible to develop predictive models to identify frequent service users and to assign them to pre-defined packages of care, and to use these models to inform the funding of psychiatric care.
authors.affiliation: Department of Medicine and Public Health, Section of Psychiatry and Clinical Psychology, University of Verona, Verona, Italy. laura.grigoletti@univr.it
authors.forename: Laura
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Grigoletti
authors.forename: Francesco
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Amaddeo
authors.forename: Aldrigo
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Grassi
authors.forename: Massimo
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Boldrini
authors.forename: Marco
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Chiappelli
authors.forename: Mauro
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Percudani
authors.forename: Francesco
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Catapano
authors.forename: Andrea
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Fiorillo
authors.forename: Francesco
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Perris
authors.forename: Maurizio
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Bacigalupi
authors.forename: Paolo
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Albanese
authors.forename: Simona
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Simonetti
authors.forename: Paola
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: De Agostini
authors.forename: Michele
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Tansella
mesh_terms: D003156:Community Mental Health Services / Q000600:supply & distribution*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007558:Italy; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical