title: Interannual variability of human plague occurrence in the Western United States explained by tropical and North Pacific Ocean climate variability.
abstract: Plague is a vector-borne, highly virulent zoonotic disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis. It persists in nature through transmission between its hosts (wild rodents) and vectors (fleas). During epizootics, the disease expands and spills over to other host species such as humans living in or close to affected areas. Here, we investigate the effect of large-scale climate variability on the dynamics of human plague in the western United States using a 56-year time series of plague reports (1950-2005). We found that El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation in combination affect the dynamics of human plague over the western United States. The underlying mechanism could involve changes in precipitation and temperatures that impact both hosts and vectors. It is suggested that snow also may play a key role, possibly through its effects on summer soil moisture, which is known to be instrumental for flea survival and development and sustained growth of vegetation for rodents.
authors.affiliation: Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biology, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway. sasha@ucsd.edu
authors.forename: Tamara Ben
authors.initials: TB
authors.lastname: Ari
authors.forename: Alexander
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Gershunov
authors.forename: Rouyer
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Tristan
authors.forename: Bernard
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Cazelles
authors.forename: Kenneth
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Gage
authors.forename: Nils C
authors.initials: NC
authors.lastname: Stenseth
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002980:Climate; D004199:Disease Vectors; D006801:Humans; D010140:Pacific Ocean; D010930:Plague / Q000453:epidemiology*; D011891:Rain; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology
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