title: A study on industrial accident rate forecasting and program development of estimated zero accident time in Korea.
abstract: To begin a zero accident campaign for industry, the first thing is to estimate the industrial accident rate and the zero accident time systematically. This paper considers the social and technical change of the business environment after beginning the zero accident campaign through quantitative time series analysis methods. These methods include sum of squared errors (SSE), regression analysis method (RAM), exponential smoothing method (ESM), double exponential smoothing method (DESM), auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and the proposed analytic function method (AFM). The program is developed to estimate the accident rate, zero accident time and achievement probability of an efficient industrial environment. In this paper, MFC (Microsoft Foundation Class) software of Visual Studio 2008 was used to develop a zero accident program. The results of this paper will provide major information for industrial accident prevention and be an important part of stimulating the zero accident campaign within all industrial environments.
authors.affiliation: Department of Occupational Health & Safety Engineering & AEI, INJE University, Gimhae, Gyeongnam 621-749, South Korea. tgkim@inje.ac.kr
authors.forename: Tae-gu
authors.initials: TG
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.forename: Young-sig
authors.initials: YS
authors.lastname: Kang
authors.forename: Hyung-won
authors.initials: HW
authors.lastname: Lee
mesh_terms: D000056:Accident Prevention / Q000379:methods; D000062:Accidents, Occupational / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005544:Forecasting / Q000379:methods; D006293:Health Promotion; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011336:Probability; D016730:Program Development; D012044:Regression Analysis; D056910:Republic of Korea / Q000453:epidemiology