Modelling the impact of modifying lifestyle risk factors on dementia prevalence in Australian population aged 45 years and over, 2006-2051.
OBJECTIVE
To model impact of modifiable risk behaviour on dementia prevalence among the Australian population aged 45 years and over.


METHODS
A group-based computer model was constructed to estimate the impact of modifying risk behaviour on dementia prevalence.


RESULTS
Based on population ageing, the number of people aged 45 years and over living with dementia is expected to triple from 187 000 in 2006 to 650 000 by 2051. A drop in proportion ever smokers by 5% every 5 years would lower population with dementia by 2% in 2051. If obesity rate drops by 5%, dementia prevalence would be lower by 6%. A decline in physical inactivity rate by 5% would reduce dementia by 11%. Persistence of the growing trend in obesity and physical inactivity would result in a larger than expected dementia epidemic.


CONCLUSIONS
Improving the risk behaviours has potential to make a substantial reduction in the number of people with dementia.
Nepal
Binod
B
National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling, University of Canberra, ACT, Australia. binod.nepal@natsem.canberra.edu.au
Brown
Laurie
L
Ranmuthugala
Geetha
G
D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003704:Dementia / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D004032:Diet; D015444:Exercise; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008019:Life Style; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009765:Obesity / Q000150:complications / Q000453:epidemiology; D015995:Prevalence; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D040242:Risk Reduction Behavior; D057185:Sedentary Behavior; D012737:Sex Factors; D012907:Smoking / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000453:epidemiology; D016540:Smoking Cessation; D013997:Time Factors