title: Risk factors for developing tuberculosis: a 12-year follow-up of contacts of tuberculosis cases.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Many risk factors for the development of tuberculosis (TB) have been reported but have not been simultaneously assessed.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To determine the risk of developing TB associated with each risk factor, after adjusting for all others.
  
  
  METHODS
  We performed a population-based, retrospective cohort study of the contacts of TB cases recorded in British Columbia, Canada. Known risk factors for the development of TB were assessed over a 12-year period; Cox regression was used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) of TB, adjusting for the other factors.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Among 33 146 TB contacts, 228 developed TB during the study period (TB rate 668 per 100,000 population, 95%CI 604-783). The main risk factors for TB development were malnutrition (HR 37.5), no treatment of latent TB infection (HR 25) or <6 months of treatment (HR 5.38), age 0-10 years (HR 7.87), being a household contact (HR 8.47) and having a tuberculin skin test induration of >or=5 mm (HR >or=4.99). Bacille Calmette-Guérin vaccination significantly reduced the risk of TB development (HR 0.32, 95%CI 0.20-0.50).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Among contacts of TB cases, we have identified the few factors that carry a very high risk for developing TB. These factors identify populations at highest risk and permit more effective TB control.
authors.affiliation: Division of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada. morano@queensu.ca
authors.forename: O
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Morán-Mendoza
authors.forename: S A
authors.initials: SA
authors.lastname: Marion
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Elwood
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Patrick
authors.forename: J M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: FitzGerald
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001500:BCG Vaccine / Q000008:administration & dosage*; D001955:British Columbia / Q000453:epidemiology; D002648:Child; D016358:Contact Tracing; D005191:Family Characteristics; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D008297:Male; D044342:Malnutrition / Q000453:epidemiology; D008875:Middle Aged; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D014374:Tuberculin Test; D014376:Tuberculosis / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D001500:BCG Vaccine