[Disease numbers in pneumology - a projection to 2060].
BACKGROUND
The demographic change leads to a change in the age-composition of the population. We have calculated a status quo projection of the absolute numbers for five diagnoses of the lung (COPD, CAP, lung cancer, bronchial asthma and tuberculosis) for Germany up to 2060.


METHODS
Based on the 12 (th) coordinated population prediction of the Federal Statistics Office, we transferred age- and sex-specific incidence and prevalence rates, respectively, to the expected population. All described developments are based solely on demographic changes.


RESULTS
The absolute numbers of bronchial asthma and tuberculosis will experience a minor decrease. We expect at first increasing and later decreasing case numbers for COPD and lung cancer. A major increase of the case numbers for CAP will be probable. By reason of a decreasing population, the rates (burden of disease for the population) will increase considerably.


CONCLUSIONS
The demographic change is mainly caused by increasing life expectancy, constantly low birth rates, and the entry of the baby-boom generation into the age of higher disease risks. A discussion about prioritisation of health care is needed because of the rising burdens for the health system, including diseases of the lung.
Pritzkuleit
R
R
Institut für Krebsepidemiologie an der Universität zu Lübeck. Ron.Pritzkuleit@uk-sh.de
Beske
F
F
Katalinic
A
A
D001249:Asthma / Q000453:epidemiology; D017281:Cost of Illness; D003710:Demography; D005260:Female; D005858:Germany / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008175:Lung Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology*; D008297:Male; D011156:Population Density; D029424:Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive / Q000453:epidemiology*; D014376:Tuberculosis / Q000453:epidemiology*