title: Prediction models for incident type 2 diabetes mellitus in the older population: KORA S4/F4 cohort study.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The aim was to derive Type 2 diabetes prediction models for the older population and to check to what degree addition of 2-h glucose measurements (oral glucose tolerance test) and biomarkers improves the predictive power of risk scores which are based on non-biochemical as well as conventional clinical parameters.
  
  
  METHODS
  Oral glucose tolerance tests were carried out in a population-based sample of 1353 subjects, aged 55-74 years (62% response) in Augsburg (Southern Germany) from 1999 to 2001. The cohort was reinvestigated in 2006-2008. Of those individuals without diabetes at baseline, 887 (74%) participated in the follow-up. Ninety-three (10.5%) validated diabetes cases occurred during the follow-up. In logistic regression analyses for model 1, variables were selected from personal characteristics and additional variables were selected from routinely measurable blood parameters (model 2) and from 2-h glucose, adiponectin, insulin and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) (model 3).
  
  
  RESULTS
  Age, sex, BMI, parental diabetes, smoking and hypertension were selected for model 1. Model 2 additionally included fasting glucose, HbA(1c) and uric acid. The same variables plus 2-h glucose were selected for model 3. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve significantly increased from 0.763 (model 1) to 0.844 (model 2) and 0.886 (model 3) (P<0.01). Biomarkers such as adiponectin and insulin did not improve the predictive abilities of models 2 and 3. Cross-validation and bootstrap-corrected model performance indicated high internal validity.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This longitudinal study in an older population provides models to predict the future risk of Type 2 diabetes. The OGTT, but not biomarkers, improved discrimination of incident diabetes.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Biometrics and Epidemiology, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at Heinrich Heine University, Düsseldorf. rathmann@ddz.uni-duesseldorf.de
authors.forename: W
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Rathmann
authors.forename: B
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Kowall
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Heier
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Herder
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Holle
authors.forename: B
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Thorand
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Strassburger
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Peters
authors.forename: H-E
authors.initials: HE
authors.lastname: Wichmann
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Giani
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Meisinger
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000097:blood / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005260:Female; D005858:Germany / Q000453:epidemiology; D005951:Glucose Tolerance Test; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007333:Insulin Resistance; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008954:Models, Biological; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012307:Risk Factors