title: Within a smoking-cessation program, what impact does genetic information on lung cancer need to have to demonstrate cost-effectiveness?
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Many smoking-cessation programs and pharmaceutical aids demonstrate substantial health gains for a relatively low allocation of resources. Genetic information represents a type of individualized or personal feedback regarding the risk of developing lung cancer, and hence the potential benefits from stopping smoking, may motivate the person to remain smoke-free. The purpose of this study was to explore what the impact of a genetic test needs to have within a typical smoking-cessation program aimed at heavy smokers in order to be cost-effective.
  
  
  METHODS
  Two strategies were modelled for a hypothetical cohort of heavy smokers aged 50 years; individuals either received or did not receive a genetic test within the course of a usual smoking-cessation intervention comprising nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) and counselling. A Markov model was constructed using evidence from published randomized controlled trials and meta-analyses for estimates on 12-month quit rates and long-term relapse rates. Epidemiological data were used for estimates on lung cancer risk stratified by time since quitting and smoking patterns. Extensive sensitivity analyses were used to explore parameter uncertainty.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The discounted incremental cost per QALY was AU$34,687 (95% CI $12,483, $87,734) over 35 years. At a willingness-to-pay of AU$20,000 per QALY gained, the genetic testing strategy needs to produce a 12-month quit rate of at least 12.4% or a relapse rate 12% lower than NRT and counselling alone for it to be equally cost-effective. The likelihood that adding a genetic test to the usual smoking-cessation intervention is cost-effective was 20.6% however cost-effectiveness ratios were favourable in certain situations (e.g., applied to men only, a 60 year old cohort).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The findings were sensitive to small changes in critical variables such as the 12-month quit rates and relapse rates. As such, the cost-effectiveness of the genetic testing smoking cessation program is uncertain. Further clinical research on smoking-cessation quit and relapse rates following genetic testing is needed to inform its cost-effectiveness.
authors.affiliation: Queensland Institute of Medical Research, Genetics and Population Health Division, PO Royal Brisbane Hospital, Herston Q4029, Australia. Louisa.Gordon@qimr.edu.au.
authors.forename: Louisa G
authors.initials: LG
authors.lastname: Gordon
authors.forename: Nicholas G
authors.initials: NG
authors.lastname: Hirst
authors.forename: Robert P
authors.initials: RP
authors.lastname: Young
authors.forename: Paul M
authors.initials: PM
authors.lastname: Brown