title: Burden of disease attributed to anthropogenic air pollution in the United Arab Emirates: estimates based on observed air quality data.
abstract: This study quantifies the national burden of disease attributed to particulate matter (PM) and ozone (O(3)) in ambient air in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a rapidly growing nation in which economic development and climatic conditions pose important challenges for air quality management. Estimates of population exposure to these air pollutants are based on observed air quality data from fixed-site monitoring stations. We divide the UAE into small grid cells and use spatial-statistical methods to estimate the ambient pollutant concentrations in each cell based on the observed data. Premature deaths attributed to PM and O(3) are computed for each grid cell and then aggregated across grid cells and over a year to estimate the total number of excess deaths attributable to ambient air pollution. Our best estimate is that approximately 545 (95% CI: 132-1224) excess deaths in the UAE in the year 2007 are attributable to PM in ambient air. These excess deaths represent approximately 7% (95% CI: 2-17%) of the total deaths that year. We attribute approximately 62 premature deaths (95% CI: 17-127) to ground-level O(3) for the year 2007. Uncertainty in the natural background level of PM, due to the frequent dust storms occurring in the region, has significant impacts on the attributed mortality estimates. Despite the uncertainties associated with the integrated assessment framework, we conclude that anthropogenic ambient air pollution, in particular PM, causes a considerable public health impact in the UAE in terms of premature deaths. We discuss important uncertainties and scientific hypotheses to be investigated in future work that might help reduce the uncertainties in the burden of disease estimates.
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-7431, USA.
authors.forename: Ying
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Li
authors.forename: Jacqueline MacDonald
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Gibson
authors.forename: Prahlad
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Jat
authors.forename: Gavino
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Puggioni
authors.forename: Mejs
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Hasan
authors.forename: J Jason
authors.initials: JJ
authors.lastname: West
authors.forename: William
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Vizuete
authors.forename: Kenneth
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Sexton
authors.forename: Marc
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Serre
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000032:analysis*; D000397:Air Pollution / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000401:mortality*; D002675:Child, Preschool; D004781:Environmental Exposure / Q000032:analysis* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008875:Middle Aged; D019370:Observation; D010126:Ozone / Q000032:analysis; D052638:Particulate Matter / Q000032:analysis; D012140:Respiratory Tract Diseases / Q000401:mortality*; D018570:Risk Assessment; D014479:United Arab Emirates / Q000453:epidemiology
chemical_list: D000393:Air Pollutants; D052638:Particulate Matter; D010126:Ozone