title: Comparison of interval and Monte Carlo simulation for the prediction of postprandial glucose under uncertainty in type 1 diabetes mellitus.
abstract: In this paper, the problem of tackling uncertainty in the prediction of postprandial blood glucose is analyzed. Two simulation approaches, Monte Carlo and interval models, are studied and compared. Interval simulation is carried out using modal interval analysis. Simulation of a glucoregulatory model with uncertainty in insulin sensitivities, glucose absorption and food intake is carried out using both methods. Interval simulation is superior in predicting all severe and mild hyper- and hypoglycemia episodes. Furthermore, much less computational time is required for interval simulation than for Monte Carlo simulation.
authors.affiliation: Institut d'Informatica i Aplicacions, University of Girona, Campus de Montilivi, Edifici P4, 17071 Girona, Spain. calm@ima.udg.edu
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Calm
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: García-Jaramillo
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Bondia
authors.forename: M A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Sainz
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Vehí
mesh_terms: D001786:Blood Glucose / Q000032:analysis*; D003922:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1 / Q000097:blood*; D006801:Humans; D007328:Insulin / Q000008:administration & dosage / Q000378:metabolism / Q000493:pharmacokinetics; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D019518:Postprandial Period; D035501:Uncertainty
chemical_list: D001786:Blood Glucose; D007328:Insulin