Stochastic dynamics of cholera epidemics.
We describe the predictions of an analytically tractable stochastic model for cholera epidemics following a single initial outbreak. The exact model relies on a set of assumptions that may restrict the generality of the approach and yet provides a realm of powerful tools and results. Without resorting to the depletion of susceptible individuals, as usually assumed in deterministic susceptible-infected-recovered models, we show that a simple stochastic equation for the number of ill individuals provides a mechanism for the decay of the epidemics occurring on the typical time scale of seasonality. The model is shown to provide a reasonably accurate description of the empirical data of the 2000/2001 cholera epidemic which took place in the Kwa Zulu-Natal Province, South Africa, with possibly notable epidemiological implications.
Azaele
Sandro
S
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, E-Quad, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544, USA.
Maritan
Amos
A
Bertuzzo
Enrico
E
Rodriguez-Iturbe
Ignacio
I
Rinaldo
Andrea
A
D000465:Algorithms; D002138:Calibration; D002771:Cholera / Q000453:epidemiology*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D058872:Epidemics; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011634:Public Health; D013019:South Africa; D013269:Stochastic Processes; D013997:Time Factors; D014734:Vibrio cholerae / Q000378:metabolism