Constructing prognostic model incorporating the 2004 WHO/ISUP classification for patients with non-muscle-invasive urothelial tumours of the urinary bladder.
OBJECTIVE
To construct a prognostic model for recurrence-free survival (RFS), progression-free survival (PFS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) for patients who have undergone transurethral resection of non-muscle-invasive (pTa/pT1) urinary bladder urothelial tumours.


METHODS
1366 patients who had undergone transurethral resection of primary non-muscle-invasive urothelial tumours (pTa, 891 patients; pT1, 475 patients) confined to the bladder were retrospectively studied. Tumours were classified according to the 2004 WHO/International Society of Urologic Pathology grading system. Kaplan-Meier and stepwise Cox regression models were applied, and 200 bootstrap resamples were used to generate survival estimates and 95% CIs. A nomogram was developed that incorporated significant variables predicting survival.


RESULTS
RFS, PFS and CSS probabilities for non-muscle-invasive bladder urothelial tumours were calculated. Incorporating salient prognostic factors (tumour grade, pT stage, patient age, status of intravesical instillation), the model satisfactorily predicted PFS (concordance index=0.79) and CSS (concordance index=0.87).


CONCLUSIONS
Robust nomograms were created to predict PFS and CSS. These data provide an overall perspective of disease outcomes which may aid in developing individualised follow-up programmes.
Pan
Chin-Chen
CC
Department of Pathology, Taipei Veterans General Hospital & National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan. ccpan@vghtpe.gov.tw
Chang
Yen-Hwa
YH
Chen
Kuang-Kuo
KK
Yu
Hui-Jung
HJ
Sun
Chih-Hao
CH
Ho
Donald M T
DM
D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002291:Carcinoma, Papillary / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000473:pathology / Q000628:therapy; D003131:Combined Modality Therapy; D018450:Disease Progression; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009361:Neoplasm Invasiveness; D009367:Neoplasm Staging; D049451:Nomograms; D012008:Recurrence; D016896:Treatment Outcome; D001749:Urinary Bladder Neoplasms / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000473:pathology / Q000628:therapy