title: Progression from childhood overweight to adolescent obesity in a large contemporary cohort.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The overweight - as distinct from obese - child is a potential target for obesity prevention interventions, on the assumption that overweight often progresses to obesity. However, there is limited empirical evidence on the probability that overweight progresses to obesity in contemporary children. Aim. To quantify progression from overweight to obesity in a large contemporary cohort of children.
  
  
  METHODS
  Changes in weight status were studied longitudinally in 7-year-olds (n=5 175) participating in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), over a 6-year period. Obesity was defined as BMI z-score ≥1.64 and overweight defined as BMI z-score ≥1.04 but <1.64.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Adjusted odds ratio for progression to obesity at age 13 for overweight at age 7 was 18.1 (95% CI 12.8-25.6), and 34% of overweight children at age 7 became obese by age 13 years.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The present study could inform judgements as to the value of monitoring changes in weight status in overweight children, and the extent to which the overweight state might be a useful target of future obesity prevention interventions.
authors.affiliation: University of Glasgow, Glasgow, Scotland. jjr2y@clinmed.gla.ac.uk
authors.forename: John J
authors.initials: JJ
authors.lastname: Reilly
authors.forename: Maria
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Bonataki
authors.forename: Samantha D
authors.initials: SD
authors.lastname: Leary
authors.forename: Jonathan C
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Wells
authors.forename: George
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Davey-Smith
authors.forename: Pauline
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Emmett
authors.forename: Colin
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Steer
authors.forename: Andrew R
authors.initials: AR
authors.lastname: Ness
authors.forename: Andrea
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Sherriff
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000367:Age Factors; D000375:Aging; D015992:Body Mass Index; D016009:Chi-Square Distribution; D002648:Child; D018450:Disease Progression; D004739:England / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D009765:Obesity / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000503:physiopathology; D016017:Odds Ratio; D050177:Overweight / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000503:physiopathology; D011446:Prospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors