title: A harvest failure approach to assess the threat from an invasive species.
abstract: We present the idea of using potential infringements on annual allowable harvest targets as an approach to estimate threats from invasive species to the forest products sector. The approach uses present-day harvest levels as a reference level to estimate when and where the impact of a nonnative forest pest could become economically damaging. We use a generic model that simulates spread and damage by nonnative invasive species, basic harvest and forest growth through time. The concept is illustrated with a case study of a new nonnative invasive pest, Sirex noctilio Fabricius on pine resources in eastern Canada. Impacts of invasion on wood supply, in particular, the point at which present-day harvest levels are not attainable, were identified for 77 non-overlapping geographical regions that delimit the primary wood supply areas around large mills and wood processing facilities in eastern Canada. The results identify the minimum area of a pest outbreak that could trigger harvest shortages (approximately 12.5-14 M ha of pine forests in Ontario and Quebec). Beyond this level, the amount of host resource available for harvesting in any given year declines rapidly. The failure to sustain broad-scale harvest targets may be an attractive and intuitive indicator for policy makers and regulators interested in developing control and "slow-the-spread" programs for non-native forest pests.
authors.affiliation: Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Great Lakes Forestry Centre, 1219 Queen Street East, Sault Ste. Marie, ON, Canada P6A 2E5. dyemshan@nrcan.gc.ca
authors.forename: Denys
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Yemshanov
authors.forename: Daniel W
authors.initials: DW
authors.lastname: McKenney
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: de Groot
authors.forename: Dennis
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Haugen
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Pedlar
authors.forename: Derek
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Sidders
authors.forename: Brent
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Joss
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002170:Canada; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D006927:Hymenoptera; D058865:Introduced Species; D010571:Pest Control; D028223:Pinus; D014197:Trees