title: Stochastic dynamics of cholera epidemics.
abstract: We describe the predictions of an analytically tractable stochastic model for cholera epidemics following a single initial outbreak. The exact model relies on a set of assumptions that may restrict the generality of the approach and yet provides a realm of powerful tools and results. Without resorting to the depletion of susceptible individuals, as usually assumed in deterministic susceptible-infected-recovered models, we show that a simple stochastic equation for the number of ill individuals provides a mechanism for the decay of the epidemics occurring on the typical time scale of seasonality. The model is shown to provide a reasonably accurate description of the empirical data of the 2000/2001 cholera epidemic which took place in the Kwa Zulu-Natal Province, South Africa, with possibly notable epidemiological implications.
authors.affiliation: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, E-Quad, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544, USA.
authors.forename: Sandro
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Azaele
authors.forename: Amos
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Maritan
authors.forename: Enrico
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Bertuzzo
authors.forename: Ignacio
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Rodriguez-Iturbe
authors.forename: Andrea
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Rinaldo
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D002138:Calibration; D002771:Cholera / Q000453:epidemiology*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D058872:Epidemics; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011634:Public Health; D013019:South Africa; D013269:Stochastic Processes; D013997:Time Factors; D014734:Vibrio cholerae / Q000378:metabolism