Extinction of refugia of hantavirus infection in a spatially heterogeneous environment.
We predict an abrupt observable transition, on the basis of numerical studies, of hantavirus infection in terrain characterized by spatially dependent environmental resources. The underlying framework of the analysis is that of Fisher equations with an internal degree of freedom, the state of infection. The unexpected prediction is of the sudden disappearance of refugia of infection in spite of the existence of supercritical (favorable) food resources, brought about by reduction of their spatial extent. Numerical results are presented and a theoretical explanation is provided on analytic grounds on the basis of the competition of diffusion of rodents carrying the hantavirus and nonlinearity present in the resource interactions.
Kumar
Niraj
N
Consortium of the Americas for Interdisciplinary Science, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, New Mexico 87131, USA.
Parmenter
R R
RR
Kenkre
V M
VM
D003198:Computer Simulation; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D004463:Ecology; D053476:Extinction, Biological; D006476:Orthohantavirus / Q000502:physiology*; D018778:Hantavirus Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology*; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D015995:Prevalence