Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st century.
Quantitative scenarios are coming of age as a tool for evaluating the impact of future socioeconomic development pathways on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyze global terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity scenarios using a range of measures including extinctions, changes in species abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts, as well as comparing model projections to observations. Scenarios consistently indicate that biodiversity will continue to decline over the 21st century. However, the range of projected changes is much broader than most studies suggest, partly because there are major opportunities to intervene through better policies, but also because of large uncertainties in projections.
Pereira
Henrique M
HM
Centro de Biologia Ambiental, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal. hpereira@fc.ul.pt
Leadley
Paul W
PW
Proença
Vânia
V
Alkemade
Rob
R
Scharlemann
Jörn P W
JP
Fernandez-Manjarrés
Juan F
JF
Araújo
Miguel B
MB
Balvanera
Patricia
P
Biggs
Reinette
R
Cheung
William W L
WW
Chini
Louise
L
Cooper
H David
HD
Gilman
Eric L
EL
Guénette
Sylvie
S
Hurtt
George C
GC
Huntington
Henry P
HP
Mace
Georgina M
GM
Oberdorff
Thierry
T
Revenga
Carmen
C
Rodrigues
Patrícia
P
Scholes
Robert J
RJ
Sumaila
Ussif Rashid
UR
Walpole
Matt
M
D000818:Animals; D059001:Aquatic Organisms; D044822:Biodiversity; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D017753:Ecosystem; D053476:Extinction, Biological; D005544:Forecasting; D008954:Models, Biological; D010944:Plants; D057766:Policy; D011157:Population Dynamics