Methodology of the sensitivity analysis used for modeling an infectious disease.
Mathematical models may be used to help clarify dynamics of several infectious diseases. Because of the complexity of some models and the high degree of uncertainty in estimating many parameters, the present study proposes a rigorous framework for sensitivity analyses of mathematical models using as example a model to assess varicella and herpes zoster incidence. Its main steps are to assess the uncertainty of the factors to be studied, to evaluate qualitatively and quantitatively the impacts of these factors on model results, and to conduct an univariate and multivariate sensitivity analysis. The application of this technique may have considerable utility in the analysis of a wide variety of complex biological and epidemiological models.
Hospices Civils de Lyon, Service de Biostatistique, F-69003 Lyon, France. claire okais@hotmail.fr
Claire
C
Okaïs
Sylvain
S
Roche
Marie-Laure
ML
Kürzinger
Benjamin
B
Riche
Hélène
H
Bricout
Tarik
T
Derrough
François
F
Simondon
René
R
Ecochard
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002644:Chickenpox / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission*; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D005260:Female; D006562:Herpes Zoster / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D055815:Young Adult