Information search in decisions from experience. Do our patterns of sampling foreshadow our decisions?
Do different patterns of sampling influence the decisions people make, even when the information the decisions are based on is equivalent? Do more and less switching between options correlate with different kinds of decision policies? In past research, the correspondence between search and decision patterns has been difficult to ascertain because the information obtained has often been confounded with its consequences in an exploration-exploitation trade-off. We used a sampling task in which information is explored prior to being exploited. We found that search patterns did reveal decision policies. Individuals who transitioned more frequently between options were more likely to choose options that win most of the time in round-wise comparisons and were more likely to underweight rare, risky events. Less switching between options was associated with choosing options that win in the long run on the basis of summary comparisons--decisions consistent with expected-value maximization and linear weighting of outcomes.
Department of Psychology, University of Basel, Missionsstrasse 60/64, 4055 Basel, Switzerland. thomas.hills@unibas.ch
Thomas T
TT
Hills
Ralph
R
Hertwig
D002755:Choice Behavior; D003657:Decision Making; D005106:Exploratory Behavior; D005717:Games, Experimental; D006801:Humans; D057226:Information Seeking Behavior; D012201:Reward