Forecasting the burden of advanced knee osteoarthritis over a 10-year period in a cohort of 60-64 year-old US adults.
OBJECTIVE
To forecast the burden of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis (OA) in the elderly US population over a 10-year horizon.


METHODS
Using a computer simulation model of the natural history and management of knee OA combined with population-based data from the 2008 US Census we projected the 10-year burden of knee OA among persons 60-64 years of age. Knee OA incidence and progression rates were derived from national cohorts and calibrated to published literature.


RESULTS
Using national data we estimated that 13% of 14,338,292 adults 60-64 years old have prevalent symptomatic, radiographic knee OA. Among persons surviving the next decade, 20% will have symptomatic advanced (Kellgren-Lawrence [K-L] grade 3) or end-stage (K-L 4) knee OA. Prevalence of advanced knee OA will range from 10% among non-obese to 35% among obese persons. Our estimates show that a more sensitive imaging tool, such as magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), may increase the number of OA cases diagnosed by up to 94% assuming that 50% of all 'pre-radiographic knee OA' (K-L 1) has some evidence of cartilage degeneration seen on MRI.


CONCLUSIONS
Projecting new and advanced cases of knee OA among persons aged 60-64 years over the next decade creates a benchmark that can be used to evaluate population-based benefits of future disease-modifying OA drugs that are currently undergoing testing at various stages.
Holt
H L
HL
Orthopedic and Arthritis Center for Outcomes Research, Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA 02115, USA.
Katz
J N
JN
Reichmann
W M
WM
Gerlovin
H
H
Wright
E A
EA
Hunter
D J
DJ
Jordan
J M
JM
Kessler
C L
CL
Losina
E
E
D015331:Cohort Studies; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D020370:Osteoarthritis, Knee / Q000453:epidemiology*; D015995:Prevalence; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology