Redefining decision: implications for managing risk and uncertainty.
The standard risk analysis paradigm is one of choice among alternative actions, each with a defined list of possible outcomes which can be compared on a probability-weighted cost basis. The practice of extending this model into circumstances in which the possible outcomes are ill-defined (but potentially disastrous), their relative probabilities are defined only subjectively, and the parties concerned have conflicting objectives, is dangerously flawed. An alternative paradigm is proposed which models consequential decisions as a process of building commitment to a course of action, including commitment to manage its (unknown) consequences. An important criterion here is unmanageability: the extent to which a particular course of action may rapidly generate severe, indeterminately adverse consequences, not manageable with existing resources and technology. This approach appears able to provide new and better decision tools in disaster-vulnerable areas such as response to climatic change and regulation of potentially catastrophic technology.
Institute for Development Policy and Management University of Manchester Crawford House Precinct Centre Oxford Rd. Manchester M13 9QS UK.
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PJ
Smith