Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st century.
Quantitative scenarios are coming of age as a tool for evaluating the impact of future socioeconomic development pathways on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyze global terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity scenarios using a range of measures including extinctions, changes in species abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts, as well as comparing model projections to observations. Scenarios consistently indicate that biodiversity will continue to decline over the 21st century. However, the range of projected changes is much broader than most studies suggest, partly because there are major opportunities to intervene through better policies, but also because of large uncertainties in projections.
Centro de Biologia Ambiental, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal. hpereira@fc.ul.pt
Henrique M
HM
Pereira
Paul W
PW
Leadley
Vânia
V
Proença
Rob
R
Alkemade
Jörn P W
JP
Scharlemann
Juan F
JF
Fernandez-Manjarrés
Miguel B
MB
Araújo
Patricia
P
Balvanera
Reinette
R
Biggs
William W L
WW
Cheung
Louise
L
Chini
H David
HD
Cooper
Eric L
EL
Gilman
Sylvie
S
Guénette
George C
GC
Hurtt
Henry P
HP
Huntington
Georgina M
GM
Mace
Thierry
T
Oberdorff
Carmen
C
Revenga
Patrícia
P
Rodrigues
Robert J
RJ
Scholes
Ussif Rashid
UR
Sumaila
Matt
M
Walpole
D000818:Animals; D059001:Aquatic Organisms; D044822:Biodiversity; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D017753:Ecosystem; D053476:Extinction, Biological; D005544:Forecasting; D008954:Models, Biological; D010944:Plants; D057766:Policy; D011157:Population Dynamics