Current themes and recent advances in modelling species occurrences.
Recent years have seen a huge expansion in the range of methods and approaches that are being used to predict species occurrences. This expansion has been accompanied by many improvements in statistical methods, including more accurate ways of comparing models, better null models, methods to cope with autocorrelation, and greater awareness of the importance of scale and prevalence. However, the field still suffers from problems with incorporating temporal variation, overfitted models and poor out-of-sample prediction, confusion between explanation and prediction, simplistic assumptions, and a focus on pattern over process. The greatest advances in recent years have come from integrative studies that have linked species occurrence models with other themes and topics in ecology, such as island biogeography, climate change, disease geography, and invasive species.
Cumming
Graeme S
GS
Percy FitzPatrick Institute, DST/NRF Centre of Excellence, University of Cape Town Rondebosch, Cape Town 7701 South Africa. graeme.cumming@uct.ac.za