Phylodynamics and human-mediated dispersal of a zoonotic virus.
Understanding the role of humans in the dispersal of predominantly animal pathogens is essential for their control. We used newly developed Bayesian phylogeographic methods to unravel the dynamics and determinants of the spread of dog rabies virus (RABV) in North Africa. Each of the countries studied exhibited largely disconnected spatial dynamics with major geopolitical boundaries acting as barriers to gene flow. Road distances proved to be better predictors of the movement of dog RABV than accessibility or raw geographical distance, with occasional long distance and rapid spread within each of these countries. Using simulations that bridge phylodynamics and spatial epidemiology, we demonstrate that the contemporary viral distribution extends beyond that expected for RABV transmission in African dog populations. These results are strongly supportive of human-mediated dispersal, and demonstrate how an integrated phylogeographic approach will turn viral genetic data into a powerful asset for characterizing, predicting, and potentially controlling the spatial spread of pathogens.
Institut Pasteur, Unit Lyssavirus Dynamics and Host Adaptation, WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Rabies, Paris, France.
Chiraz
C
Talbi
Philippe
P
Lemey
Marc A
MA
Suchard
Elbia
E
Abdelatif
Mehdi
M
Elharrak
Jalal
J
Nourlil
Nourlil
N
Jalal
Abdellah
A
Faouzi
Juan E
JE
Echevarría
Sonia
S
Vazquez Morón
Andrew
A
Rambaut
Nicholas
N
Campiz
Andrew J
AJ
Tatem
Edward C
EC
Holmes
Hervé
H
Bourhy
D000462:Algeria / Q000453:epidemiology; D000818:Animals; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003710:Demography; D004285:Dogs; D019143:Evolution, Molecular; D051456:Gene Flow / Q000235:genetics / Q000502:physiology; D005843:Geography; D006801:Humans; D009018:Morocco / Q000453:epidemiology; D010802:Phylogeny; D011820:Rabies virus / Q000235:genetics* / Q000502:physiology; D014416:Tunisia / Q000453:epidemiology; D015047:Zoonoses / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission* / Q000821:virology*