Contact network structure explains the changing epidemiology of pertussis.
The epidemiology of whooping cough (pertussis) remains enigmatic. A leading cause of infant mortality globally, its resurgence in several developed nations--despite the availability and use of vaccines for many decades--has caused alarm. We combined data from a singular natural experiment and a detailed contact network study to show that age-specific contact patterns alone can explain shifts in prevalence and age-stratified incidence in the vaccine era. The practical implications of our results are notable: Ignoring age-structured contacts is likely to result in misinterpretation of epidemiological data and potentially costly policy missteps.
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA. rohani@umich.edu
Pejman
P
Rohani
Xue
X
Zhong
Aaron A
AA
King
D000293:Adolescent; D017677:Age Distribution; D000367:Age Factors; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D005060:Europe / Q000453:epidemiology; D006291:Health Policy; D006801:Humans; D017589:Immunization Programs; D007117:Immunization, Secondary; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D007398:Interpersonal Relations; D015233:Models, Statistical; D010567:Pertussis Vaccine; D015995:Prevalence; D013548:Sweden / Q000453:epidemiology; D022282:Vaccines, Acellular; D014917:Whooping Cough / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission; D055815:Young Adult
D010567:Pertussis Vaccine; D022282:Vaccines, Acellular