title: Foot-and-mouth disease in Tanzania from 2001 to 2006.
abstract: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in Tanzania, with outbreaks occurring almost each year in different parts of the country. There is now a strong political desire to control animal diseases as part of national poverty alleviation strategies. However, FMD control requires improving the current knowledge on the disease dynamics and factors related to FMD occurrence so control measures can be implemented more efficiently. The objectives of this study were to describe the FMD dynamics in Tanzania from 2001 to 2006 and investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of transmission. Extraction maps, the space-time K-function and space-time permutation models based on scan statistics were calculated for each year to evaluate the spatial distribution, the spatiotemporal interaction and the spatiotemporal clustering of FMD-affected villages. From 2001 to 2006, 878 FMD outbreaks were reported in 605 different villages of 5815 populated places included in the database. The spatial distribution of FMD outbreaks was concentrated along the Tanzania-Kenya, Tanzania-Zambia borders, and the Kagera basin bordering Uganda, Rwanda and Tanzania. The spatiotemporal interaction among FMD-affected villages was statistically significant (P≤0.01) and 12 local spatiotemporal clusters were detected; however, the extent and intensity varied across the study period. Dividing the country in zones according to their epidemiological status will allow improving the control of FMD and delimiting potential FMD-free areas.
authors.affiliation: Department of Animal Health, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp, Belgium. albert.picado@lshtm.ac.uk
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Picado
authors.forename: N
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Speybroeck
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Kivaria
authors.forename: R M
authors.initials: RM
authors.lastname: Mosha
authors.forename: R D
authors.initials: RD
authors.lastname: Sumaye
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Casal
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Berkvens
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002417:Cattle; D016000:Cluster Analysis; D016208:Databases, Factual; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000662:veterinary*; D005536:Foot-and-Mouth Disease / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission*; D015994:Incidence; D013636:Tanzania / Q000453:epidemiology; D013997:Time Factors