title: Recent research (N = 9,305) underscores the importance of using age-stratified actuarial tables in sex offender risk assessments.
abstract: A useful understanding of the relationship between age, actuarial scores, and sexual recidivism can be obtained by comparing the entries in equivalent cells from "age-stratified" actuarial tables. This article reports the compilation of the first multisample age-stratified table of sexual recidivism rates, referred to as the "multisample age-stratified table of sexual recidivism rates (MATS-1)," from recent research on Static-99 and another actuarial known as the Automated Sexual Recidivism Scale. The MATS-1 validates the "age invariance effect" that the risk of sexual recidivism declines with advancing age and shows that age-restricted tables underestimate risk for younger offenders and overestimate risk for older offenders. Based on data from more than 9,000 sex offenders, our conclusion is that evaluators should report recidivism estimates from age-stratified tables when they are assessing sexual recidivism risk, particularly when evaluating the aging sex offender.
authors.affiliation: Washington State University at Vancouver, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada.
authors.forename: Richard
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Wollert
authors.forename: Elliot
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Cramer
authors.forename: Jacqueline
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Waggoner
authors.forename: Alex
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Skelton
authors.forename: James
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Vess
mesh_terms: D000206:Actuarial Analysis; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000704:Analysis of Variance; D002648:Child; D002650:Child Abuse, Sexual / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011329:Prisoners / Q000523:psychology*; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D012307:Risk Factors; D055502:Secondary Prevention; D012742:Sex Offenses / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires / Q000592:standards*; D055815:Young Adult