title: A steady-state, population-based model to estimate the direct and indirect effects of pneumococcal vaccines.
abstract: This paper estimated the clinical impact of routine vaccination of infants with a new 10-valent pneumococcal nontypeable Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV) compared with the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-7) and no vaccination in Canada using a new steady-state, population-based model. A deterministic, compartmental model was developed to simulate the effect of vaccination for a 1-year time period for a steady-state population, allowing for the incorporation of herd and replacement effects across all age groups. Annual clinical outcomes in the steady-state year for a population of 32.9 million were calculated for all three vaccination strategies. The no vaccination strategy was included for the purpose of validating the model. The model estimated that PHiD-CV prevented more cases of disease and more deaths than PCV-7 and no vaccination, with the largest incremental impact on acute otitis media (AOM). Compared with PCV-7, vaccination with PHiD-CV was estimated to prevent an additional 10 cases of invasive disease, 416 cases of pneumonia, 155,757 cases of AOM, 8943 myringotomy procedures, and 6 deaths nationwide. For the comparison between PCV-7 and no vaccination, the model estimated a 36.8% reduction in invasive disease; this result was similar to other models and a recent observational study in Canada, providing preliminary validation of the model.
authors.affiliation: RTI Health Solutions, PO Box 12194, 3040 Cornwallis Road, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, USA. stalbird@rti.org
authors.forename: Sandra E
authors.initials: SE
authors.lastname: Talbird
authors.forename: Afisi S
authors.initials: AS
authors.lastname: Ismaila
authors.forename: Thomas N
authors.initials: TN
authors.lastname: Taylor
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002170:Canada / Q000453:epidemiology; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D005260:Female; D000069443:Heptavalent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011008:Pneumococcal Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control*; D022242:Pneumococcal Vaccines / Q000008:administration & dosage / Q000276:immunology*; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D000069443:Heptavalent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine; C547294:PHiD-CV vaccine; D022242:Pneumococcal Vaccines