title: Establishment of numerical beach-litter hindcast/forecast models: an application to Goto Islands, Japan.
abstract: This study attempts to establish a system for hindcasting/forecasting the quantity of litter reaching a beach using an ocean circulation model, a two-way particle tracking model (PTM) to find litter sources, and an inverse method to compute litter outflows at each source. Twelve actual beach survey results, and satellite and forecasted wind data were also used. The quantity of beach litter was hindcasted/forecasted using a forward in-time PTM with the surface currents computed in the ocean circulation model driven by satellite-derived/forecasted wind data. Outflows obtained using the inverse method was given for each source in the model. The time series of the hindcasted/forecasted quantity of beach litter were found consistent with the quantity of beach litter determined from sequential webcam images of the actual beach. The accuracy of the model, however, is reduced drastically by intense winds such as typhoons which disturb drifting litter motion.
authors.affiliation: Center for Marine Environmental Studies, Ehime University, Matsuyama 790-8577, Japan. kako@dpc.ehime-u.ac.jp
authors.forename: Shin'ichiro
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Kako
authors.forename: Atsuhiko
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Isobe
authors.forename: Shinya
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Magome
authors.forename: Hirofumi
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Hinata
authors.forename: Satoquo
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Seino
authors.forename: Azusa
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Kojima
mesh_terms: D001493:Bathing Beaches / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D005544:Forecasting; D007564:Japan; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D014872:Water Movements; D014873:Water Pollutants / Q000032:analysis*; D014876:Water Pollution / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*
chemical_list: D014873:Water Pollutants