title: Efficient simulation of the spatial transmission dynamics of influenza.
abstract: Early data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic (H1N1pdm) suggest that previous studies over-estimated the within-country rate of spatial spread of pandemic influenza. As large spatially resolved data sets are constructed, the need for efficient simulation code with which to investigate the spatial patterns of the pandemic becomes clear. Here, we present a significant improvement to the efficiency of an individual-based stochastic disease simulation framework commonly used in multiple previous studies. We quantify the efficiency of the revised algorithm and present an alternative parameterization of the model in terms of the basic reproductive number. We apply the model to the population of Taiwan and demonstrate how the location of the initial seed can influence spatial incidence profiles and the overall spread of the epidemic. Differences in incidence are driven by the relative connectivity of alternate seed locations. The ability to perform efficient simulation allows us to run a batch of simulations and take account of their average in real time. The averaged data are stable and can be used to differentiate spreading patterns that are not readily seen by only conducting a few runs.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Information Science, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
authors.forename: Meng-Tsung
authors.initials: MT
authors.lastname: Tsai
authors.forename: Tsurng-Chen
authors.initials: TC
authors.lastname: Chern
authors.forename: Jen-Hsiang
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Chuang
authors.forename: Chih-Wen
authors.initials: CW
authors.lastname: Hsueh
authors.forename: Hsu-Sung
authors.initials: HS
authors.lastname: Kuo
authors.forename: Churn-Jung
authors.initials: CJ
authors.lastname: Liau
authors.forename: Steven
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Riley
authors.forename: Bing-Jie
authors.initials: BJ
authors.lastname: Shen
authors.forename: Chih-Hao
authors.initials: CH
authors.lastname: Shen
authors.forename: Da-Wei
authors.initials: DW
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Tsan-Sheng
authors.initials: TS
authors.lastname: Hsu
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000465:Algorithms; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003198:Computer Simulation; D005843:Geography; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D053118:Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission*; D008875:Middle Aged; D058873:Pandemics; D013624:Taiwan / Q000453:epidemiology; D013997:Time Factors; D055815:Young Adult