title: Time series analysis of incidence data of influenza in Japan.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Much effort has been expended on interpreting the mechanism of influenza epidemics, so as to better predict them. In addition to the obvious annual cycle of influenza epidemics, longer-term incidence patterns are present. These so-called interepidemic periods have long been a focus of epidemiology. However, there has been less investigation of the interepidemic period of influenza epidemics. In the present study, we used spectral analysis of influenza morbidity records to indentify the interepidemic period of influenza epidemics in Japan.
  
  
  METHODS
  We used time series data of the monthly incidence of influenza in Japan from January 1948 through December 1998. To evaluate the incidence data, we conducted maximum entropy method (MEM) spectral analysis, which is useful in investigating the periodicities of shorter time series, such as that of the incidence data used in the present study. We also conducted a segment time series analysis and obtained a 3-dimensional spectral array.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Based on the results of power spectral density (PSD) obtained from MEM spectral analysis, we identified 3 periodic modes as the interepidemic periods of the incidence data. Segment time series analysis revealed that the amount of amplitude of the interepidemic periods increased during the occurrence of influenza pandemics and decreased when vaccine programs were introduced.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The findings suggest that the temporal behavior of the interepidemic periods of influenza epidemics is correlated with the magnitude of cross-reactive immune responses.
authors.affiliation: Department of Hygiene, Sapporo Medical University School of Medicine, Chuo-ku, Sapporo, Japan. sumi@sapmed.ac.jp
authors.forename: Ayako
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Sumi
authors.forename: Ken-ichi
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Kamo
authors.forename: Norio
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Ohtomo
authors.forename: Keiji
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Mise
authors.forename: Nobumichi
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Kobayashi
mesh_terms: D058872:Epidemics; D006801:Humans; D017589:Immunization Programs; D015994:Incidence; D007252:Influenza Vaccines; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology*; D007564:Japan / Q000453:epidemiology; D010507:Periodicity; D011159:Population Surveillance / Q000379:methods*; D013997:Time Factors
chemical_list: D007252:Influenza Vaccines