title: Is the F(ST) a good predictor of extinction?
abstract: The organization of neutral genetic variation has long been used as a diagnostic tool to infer demographic properties of populations, and recently it has been shown that this information can also be used to estimate the magnitude of genetic deterioration in small or fragmented populations. A further step of this research is to assess whether neutral genetic indicators can serve to predict and compare the viabilities of endangered species. I use modeling to explore how ecological metapopulation settings are related to neutral genetic indicators (such as the fixation index [F(ST)]), changes in genetic load, and metapopulation viability. The analysis indicates that genetic indicators are generally strongly and consistently correlated with the genetic load, population size and structure, and time of extinction but identifies two potential limitations for their use in viability assessments. First, the regime of environmental perturbations is not accurately reflected by neutral indicators, so that their predictive power may be reduced in variable environments. Second, many species are threatened by recent human-induced changes of their habitat configuration. In most cases, genetic indicators may not have reached their equilibrium value in the altered habitat, which limits their ability to compare species with heterogeneous histories and life-history traits.
authors.affiliation: Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle (MNHN), Département Ecologie et Gestion de la Biodiversité, Unité Mixte de Recherche 7204 Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique-MNHN-Université Pierre et Marie Curie Conservation des Espèces, Restauration et Suivi des Populations, 55 rue Buffon, 75005 Paris, France. arobert@mnhn.fr
authors.forename: Alexandre
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Robert
mesh_terms: D017753:Ecosystem; D053476:Extinction, Biological; D056084:Genetic Fitness; D040741:Genetic Load; D014644:Genetic Variation; D008957:Models, Genetic; D011156:Population Density; D011157:Population Dynamics