title: Validation of population-based disease simulation models: a review of concepts and methods.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Computer simulation models are used increasingly to support public health research and policy, but questions about their quality persist. The purpose of this article is to review the principles and methods for validation of population-based disease simulation models.
  
  
  METHODS
  We developed a comprehensive framework for validating population-based chronic disease simulation models and used this framework in a review of published model validation guidelines. Based on the review, we formulated a set of recommendations for gathering evidence of model credibility.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Evidence of model credibility derives from examining: 1) the process of model development, 2) the performance of a model, and 3) the quality of decisions based on the model. Many important issues in model validation are insufficiently addressed by current guidelines. These issues include a detailed evaluation of different data sources, graphical representation of models, computer programming, model calibration, between-model comparisons, sensitivity analysis, and predictive validity. The role of external data in model validation depends on the purpose of the model (e.g., decision analysis versus prediction). More research is needed on the methods of comparing the quality of decisions based on different models.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  As the role of simulation modeling in population health is increasing and models are becoming more complex, there is a need for further improvements in model validation methodology and common standards for evaluating model credibility.
authors.affiliation: School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada. jkopec@arthritisresearch.ca
authors.forename: Jacek A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Kopec
authors.forename: Philippe
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Finès
authors.forename: Douglas G
authors.initials: DG
authors.lastname: Manuel
authors.forename: David L
authors.initials: DL
authors.lastname: Buckeridge
authors.forename: William M
authors.initials: WM
authors.lastname: Flanagan
authors.forename: Jillian
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Oderkirk
authors.forename: Michal
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Abrahamowicz
authors.forename: Samuel
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Harper
authors.forename: Behnam
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Sharif
authors.forename: Anya
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Okhmatovskaia
authors.forename: Eric C
authors.initials: EC
authors.lastname: Sayre
authors.forename: M Mushfiqur
authors.initials: MM
authors.lastname: Rahman
authors.forename: Michael C
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: Wolfson
mesh_terms: D002908:Chronic Disease / Q000453:epidemiology*; D003198:Computer Simulation / Q000592:standards*; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011634:Public Health; D054928:Validation Studies as Topic