title: Mapping brucellosis risk in communities in the Republic of Armenia.
abstract: We describe the geographical patterns and identified factors associated with serological evidence of brucellosis in ruminants in Armenian communities during 2006 and 2007. The data comprised the two first complete years of the current national test-and-slaughter control programme for cattle, sheep and goats. Overall, 29% and 21% of the 858 communities involved in this study reported brucellosis in their respective cattle and small ruminant populations. The national brucellosis control data showed a widespread and uneven distribution of brucellosis throughout the Republic of Armenia for both cattle and small ruminants. The geographical areas of greater risk of communities having seropositive animals were different for cattle and small ruminant populations but most of the associated factors were similar. Several areas where the likelihood of disease occurrence was predicted poorly by the statistical models were also identified. These latter findings are indicative of either less than perfect testing and reporting procedures or unexplained epidemiological factors operating in those particular areas. The analyses provided valuable insights into understanding the brucellosis epidemiology at the community level which operates in small ruminant and cattle populations, and identified priority areas for implementing targeted risk-based surveillance and disease control interventions.
authors.affiliation: CIRAD, UMR CIRAD-INRA 1309, Site de Duclos Prise d'Eau, Petit-Bourg, Guadeloupe, French West Indies, France.
authors.forename: Thibaud
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Porphyre
authors.forename: Ronald
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Jackson
authors.forename: Carola
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Sauter-Louis
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Ward
authors.forename: Grigor
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Baghyan
authors.forename: Edik
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Stepanyan
mesh_terms: D000462:Algeria / Q000453:epidemiology; D000818:Animals; D001136:Armenia / Q000453:epidemiology; D016010:Binomial Distribution; D002006:Brucellosis / Q000097:blood / Q000453:epidemiology*; D002417:Cattle; D016001:Confidence Intervals; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D005843:Geography; D006041:Goats; D016015:Logistic Models; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D016017:Odds Ratio; D012372:ROC Curve; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D012307:Risk Factors; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D012756:Sheep