title: Descriptive spatial analysis of the cholera epidemic 2008-2009 in Harare, Zimbabwe: a secondary data analysis.
abstract: This ecological study describes the cholera epidemic in Harare during 2008-2009 and identifies patterns that may explain transmission. Rates ratios of cholera cases by suburb were calculated by a univariate regression Poisson model and then, through an Empirical Bayes modelling, smoothed rate ratios were estimated and represented geographically. Mbare and southwest suburbs of Harare presented higher rate ratios. Suburbs attack rates ranged from 1.2 (95% Cl = 0.7-1.6) cases per 1000 people in Tynwald to 90.3 (95% Cl = 82.8-98.2) in Hopley. The identification of this spatial pattern in the spread, characterised by low risk in low density residential housing, and a higher risk in high density south west suburbs and Mbare, could be used to advocate for improving water and sanitation conditions and specific preparedness measures in the most affected areas.
authors.affiliation: Médecins Sans Frontières, Medical department (Brussels Operational Center), 94, rue Dupre, 1090 Brussels, Belgium.
authors.forename: Miguel Ángel
authors.initials: MÁ
authors.lastname: Luque Fernández
authors.forename: Peter R
authors.initials: PR
authors.lastname: Mason
authors.forename: Henry
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Gray
authors.forename: Ariane
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Bauernfeind
authors.forename: Jean François
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Fesselet
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Maes
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D002771:Cholera / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005260:Female; D040362:Geographic Information Systems; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D016012:Poisson Distribution; D011159:Population Surveillance; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012307:Risk Factors; D012499:Sanitation / Q000592:standards*; D013029:Space-Time Clustering; D055815:Young Adult; D015030:Zimbabwe / Q000453:epidemiology