title: Modelling the effects of the weather on admissions to UK trauma units: a cross-sectional study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To assess the relationship between daily trauma admissions and observed weather variables, using data from the Trauma Audit and Research Network of England and Wales and the UK Meteorological Office.
  
  
  METHODS
  A cross-sectional study.
  
  
  METHODS
  Twenty-one accident and emergency departments (ED) located across England.
  
  
  METHODS
  All patients arriving at one of the selected ED, with a subsequent death, inpatient stay of greater than 3 days, interhospital transfer or requiring critical care between 1 January 1996 and 31 December 2006.
  
  
  METHODS
  Daily counts of adult and paediatric trauma admissions.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Multivariate regression analysis indicated that there were strong seasonal trends in paediatric (χ(2) likelihood ratio test p<0.001), and adult (p=0.016) trauma admissions. For adults, each rise of 5°C in the maximum daily temperature and each additional 2 h of sunshine caused increases in trauma admissions of 1.8% and 1.9%. Effects in the paediatric group were considerably larger, with similar increases in temperature and hours of sunshine causing increases in trauma admissions of 10% and 6%. Each drop of 5°C in the minimum daily temperature, eg, due to a severe night time frost, caused adult trauma admissions to increase by 3.2%. Also the presence of snow increased adult trauma admissions by 7.9%.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This is the largest study of its kind to investigate and quantify the relationship between trauma admissions and the weather. The results show clear associations that have direct application for planning and resource management in UK ED.
authors.affiliation: Warwick Medical School, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK. nick.parsons@warwick.ac.uk
authors.forename: Nick
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Parsons
authors.forename: Michelle
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Odumenya
authors.forename: Antoinette
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Edwards
authors.forename: Fiona
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Lecky
authors.forename: Giles
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Pattison
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D004739:England / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012621:Seasons; D014193:Trauma Centers / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D014887:Weather; D014947:Wounds and Injuries / Q000453:epidemiology*; D055815:Young Adult