title: Prioritizing emerging zoonoses in the Netherlands.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  To support the development of early warning and surveillance systems of emerging zoonoses, we present a general method to prioritize pathogens using a quantitative, stochastic multi-criteria model, parameterized for the Netherlands.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A risk score was based on seven criteria, reflecting assessments of the epidemiology and impact of these pathogens on society. Criteria were weighed, based on the preferences of a panel of judges with a background in infectious disease control.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Pathogens with the highest risk for the Netherlands included pathogens in the livestock reservoir with a high actual human disease burden (e.g. Campylobacter spp., Toxoplasma gondii, Coxiella burnetii) or a low current but higher historic burden (e.g. Mycobacterium bovis), rare zoonotic pathogens in domestic animals with severe disease manifestations in humans (e.g. BSE prion, Capnocytophaga canimorsus) as well as arthropod-borne and wildlife associated pathogens which may pose a severe risk in future (e.g. Japanese encephalitis virus and West-Nile virus). These agents are key targets for development of early warning and surveillance.
authors.affiliation: National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands. arie.havelaar@rivm.nl
authors.forename: Arie H
authors.initials: AH
authors.lastname: Havelaar
authors.forename: Floor
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: van Rosse
authors.forename: Catalin
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Bucura
authors.forename: Milou A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Toetenel
authors.forename: Juanita A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Haagsma
authors.forename: Dorota
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Kurowicka
authors.forename: J Hans A P
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Heesterbeek
authors.forename: Niko
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Speybroeck
authors.forename: Merel F M
authors.initials: MF
authors.lastname: Langelaar
authors.forename: Johanna W B
authors.initials: JW
authors.lastname: van der Giessen
authors.forename: Roger M
authors.initials: RM
authors.lastname: Cooke
authors.forename: Marieta A H
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Braks
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D000818:Animals; D021821:Communicable Diseases, Emerging / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D004197:Disease Reservoirs / Q000382:microbiology / Q000469:parasitology / Q000821:virology; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D009426:Netherlands / Q000453:epidemiology; D015047:Zoonoses / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*