title: Ecological study and risk mapping of visceral leishmaniasis in an endemic area of Iran based on a geographical information systems approach.
abstract: Between 1998 and 2001, a total of 1,062 human cases of visceral leishmaniasis were reported from the rural district of Meshkin-Shahr in the mountainous, north-western Iranian province of Ardabil. In the summer of 2008, a cross-sectional study of dogs was conducted in this endemic area by randomly selecting 384 animals from 21 villages and testing them serologically for leishmaniasis. Villages, in which more than 10% of investigated dogs showed anti- Leishmania titres ≥ 1/320, were considered to be high-risk environments. Regression analysis showed no statistically significant correlation between topographic conditions and the prevalence of positive cases. However, when the results were compared with past meteorological records, a statistically significant positive correlation (P = 0.007) was found between the number of infected dogs with anti-Leishmania titres ≥ 1/640 and the number of days in a year with temperatures below 0 °C. While humidity showed an inverse correlation (P = 0.009) with the anti-Leishmania titres, a positive correlation (P <0.001) was found in relation to the amount of rainfall. Mapping of the areas at risk for kala-azar in the Meshkin-Shahr district supports the impression that the low temperatures prevalent in the Ardebil province constitute an important factor influencing the distribution of leishmaniasis there.
authors.affiliation: Department of Pathobiology, Bandar Abbas Faculty of Medicine, Hormozgan University of Medical Sciences (HUMS), Iran. asmoghaddam@yahoo.com
authors.forename: Abdoreza
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Salahi-Moghaddam
authors.forename: Mehdi
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Mohebali
authors.forename: Ali
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Moshfae
authors.forename: Majid
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Habibi
authors.forename: Zabiholah
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Zarei
mesh_terms: D000704:Analysis of Variance; D000818:Animals; D002980:Climate; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D004285:Dogs; D017753:Ecosystem; D040362:Geographic Information Systems; D005843:Geography; D006801:Humans; D006813:Humidity; D007492:Iran / Q000453:epidemiology; D007898:Leishmaniasis, Visceral / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D012044:Regression Analysis; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D012307:Risk Factors; D012424:Rural Population; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D013696:Temperature