title: Serum soluble CD163 predicts risk of type 2 diabetes in the general population.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Activation of adipose tissue macrophages with concomitant low-grade inflammation is believed to play a central role in the development of type 2 diabetes. We tested whether a new macrophage-derived biomarker, soluble CD163 (sCD163), identifies at-risk individuals before overt disease has developed.
  
  
  METHODS
  A prospective cohort study of 8849 study participants from the general population, the Copenhagen City Heart Study, was followed for 18 years for incidence of type 2 diabetes. Risk of disease was calculated according to age- and sex-adjusted percentile categories of serum sCD163 concentrations: 0%-33%, 34%-66%, 67%-90%, 91%-95%, and 96%-100%.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A total of 568 participants developed type 2 diabetes. The cumulative incidence increased with increasing baseline sCD163 (trend P < 0.001), and sCD163 was strongly associated with known risk factors such as physical inactivity, body mass index, C-reactive protein, and triglycerides (all P < 0.001). Multifactorially adjusted hazard ratios for type 2 diabetes were 1.4 (95% CI, 1.0-1.9), 2.4 (1.8-3.2), 3.8 (2.6-5.5), and 5.2 (3.6-7.6) for categories 34%-66%, 67%-90%, 91%-95%, and 96%-100%, respectively, vs the 0%-33% category. In overweight men 50-70 and >70 years of age, serum sCD163 concentrations in the top 5% group predicted an absolute 10-year risk of type 2 diabetes of 29% and 36% vs 7% and 8% in the lowest percentile group. Equivalent values in women were 19% and 24% vs 4% and 5%.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Increased concentrations of sCD163 predict increased risk of type 2 diabetes in the general population and may be useful for identification of high-risk overweight individuals.
authors.affiliation: Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Aarhus University Hospital, Århus Sygehus, Denmark. holgmoel@rm.dk
authors.forename: Holger J
authors.initials: HJ
authors.lastname: Møller
authors.forename: Ruth
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Frikke-Schmidt
authors.forename: Søren K
authors.initials: SK
authors.lastname: Moestrup
authors.forename: Børge G
authors.initials: BG
authors.lastname: Nordestgaard
authors.forename: Anne
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Tybjærg-Hansen
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D015703:Antigens, CD / Q000097:blood*; D015214:Antigens, Differentiation, Myelomonocytic / Q000097:blood*; D015415:Biomarkers / Q000097:blood; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000097:blood / Q000175:diagnosis*; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008264:Macrophages / Q000378:metabolism; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D011956:Receptors, Cell Surface / Q000097:blood*; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012995:Solubility; D013997:Time Factors; D000098902:CD163 Antigen
chemical_list: D015703:Antigens, CD; D015214:Antigens, Differentiation, Myelomonocytic; D015415:Biomarkers; D000098902:CD163 Antigen; D011956:Receptors, Cell Surface