Dynamic characteristic analysis of HIV mother to child transmission in China.
OBJECTIVE
To explore dynamic characteristics of the HIV mother to child transmission (MTCT) epidemic in China.


METHODS
A deterministic dynamic transmission model was used to determine the effect of key parameters on the likely long-term trends of the HIV MTCT epidemic in China. Matlab 7.0 was used to develop the model.


RESULTS
The number of the susceptibles (S), the transmission rate (β), and the screening proportion (α) of HIV positive pregnant women have the greatest impact on the HIV MTCT epidemic in China. The growth of the MTCT epidemic in China could not be controlled only by decreasing the MTCT transmission rate. The prevalence of HIV positive women should be reduced and more pregnant women should be tested for HIV.


CONCLUSIONS
Prevention of MTCT (PMTCT) should focus not only on the reduction of HIV transmission rates and incidences of HIV among women but also on the increase of HIV testing for pregnant women. The most cost-effective PMTCT means for China should be investigated in future studies.
National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China.
Jun-Jie
JJ
Wang
Kathleen Heather
KH
Reilly
Hua
H
Han
Zhi-Hang
ZH
Peng
Ning
N
Wang
D000293:Adolescent; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000401:mortality / Q000635:transmission*; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D018445:Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011247:Pregnancy; D011251:Pregnancy Complications, Infectious / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000821:virology*; D015995:Prevalence