From outbreak detection to anticipation.
BACKGROUND
Bioterrorist threats and the emergence of new infectious pathogens force structures and means dedicated to outbreaks detection to evolve. Obtaining early information is becoming a major stake. Development of early warning system and new epidemiological tools open new perspectives in real time management of outbreaks.


METHODS
Through several examples, this overview presents a synthesis and reports the recent multidisciplinary evolutions, which occurred in the field of outbreak detection and information useful for outbreaks anticipation.


CONCLUSIONS
Outbreak detection is a multidisciplinary activity which relies on many protean epidemiologic sensors. Detection should not be perceived as a finality, but as a crucial step of a broader process in outbreak management (detection, alarm, alert, acceptability, implementation of countermeasures or not). That is why the evaluation of a monitoring system should not be limited to only its ability to detect an aberration. Today, progress in biology, modeling, remote sensing and environmental detection allow model development with anticipation aiming.
Département d'épidémiologie et de santé publique, institut de médecine tropicale, Marseille, France. gaetex1@gmail.com
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Texier
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Buisson
D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control; D006801:Humans; D011159:Population Surveillance / Q000379:methods