Rethinking adaptation for a 4°C world.
With weakening prospects of prompt mitigation, it is increasingly likely that the world will experience 4°C and more of global warming. In such a world, adaptation decisions that have long lead times or that have implications playing out over many decades become more uncertain and complex. Adapting to global warming of 4°C cannot be seen as a mere extrapolation of adaptation to 2°C; it will be a more substantial, continuous and transformative process. However, a variety of psychological, social and institutional barriers to adaptation are exacerbated by uncertainty and long timeframes, with the danger of immobilizing decision-makers. In this paper, we show how complexity and uncertainty can be reduced by a systematic approach to categorizing the interactions between decision lifetime, the type of uncertainty in the relevant drivers of change and the nature of adaptation response options. We synthesize a number of issues previously raised in the literature to link the categories of interactions to a variety of risk-management strategies and tactics. Such application could help to break down some barriers to adaptation and both simplify and better target adaptation decision-making. The approach needs to be tested and adopted rapidly.
CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship, PO Box 284, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia. mark.staffordsmith@csiro.au
Mark
M
Stafford Smith
Lisa
L
Horrocks
Alex
A
Harvey
Clive
C
Hamilton
D000220:Adaptation, Biological; D000223:Adaptation, Psychological; D000818:Animals; D057231:Climate Change; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D018534:Earth, Planet; D004463:Ecology; D057232:Global Warming; D006801:Humans; D008131:London; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012308:Risk Management; D013696:Temperature; D014881:Water Supply