title: Utility of a simplified predictive model to predict rebleeding in patients with high-risk stigmata ulcers.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To evaluate a simplified Predictive Model (sPM) to predict rebleeding in patients with high-risk stigmata ulcers.
  
  
  METHODS
  Retrospectively, patients seen from March 2002 to September 2007 with peptic ulcers Forrest Ia, Ib, IIa and/or IIb were included. A sPM based on modified Blatchford Score Risk System (mBRS) was used.
  
  
  RESULTS
  One hundred and seven patients were included. The positive and negative predictive values for rebleeding with mBRS ≤1 were 15% [95% confidence interval (CI): 4-42] and 72% (95% CI: 61-80), respectively; for sPM ≤1 these values were 16% (95% CI: 8-29) and 65.3% (95% CI: 52-76), respectively. The odds ratio for rebleeding in patients with sPM ≤1 was 0.77 (95% CI: 0.6-0.97, P=0.03) and odds ratio for mBRS ≤1 was 0.84 (95% CI: 0.64-1.1, P=0.3).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In patients with high-risk stigmata ulcers with sPM and mBRS ≤1 the risk of rebleeding is low and their early discharge could be considered.
authors.affiliation: Department of Endoscopy, Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Mexico City, México. felixtelleza@gmail.com
authors.forename: Félix I
authors.initials: FI
authors.lastname: Téllez-Ávila
authors.forename: Norberto C
authors.initials: NC
authors.lastname: Chávez-Tapia
authors.forename: Gustavo
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: López-Arce
authors.forename: Sandra M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Garcìa-Osogobio
authors.forename: Ada M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Franco-Guzmán
authors.forename: Roberto
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Ruiz-Cordero
authors.forename: Roberto
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Alfaro-Lara
authors.forename: Francisco
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Valdovinos
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D005260:Female; D006471:Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage / Q000175:diagnosis*; D016558:Hemostasis, Endoscopic; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010438:Peptic Ulcer Hemorrhage / Q000175:diagnosis*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012008:Recurrence; D019233:Retreatment; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment