title: Can antiviral therapy for hepatitis C reduce the prevalence of HCV among injecting drug user populations? A modeling analysis of its prevention utility.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Hepatitis C virus antiviral treatment is effective for individual patients but few active injecting drug users are treated. We considered the utility of antiviral treatment for primary prevention of hepatitis C.
  
  
  METHODS
  A hepatitis C transmission model among injecting drug users was developed, incorporating treatment (62.5% average sustained viral response) with no retreatment after initial treatment failure, potential re-infection for those cured, equal genotype setting (genotype 1:genotype 2/3), and no immunity. In addition, we examined scenarios with varied treatment response rates, immunity, or retreatment of treatment failures.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In the baseline scenario, annually treating 10 infections per 1000 injecting drug users results in a relative decrease in hepatitis C prevalence over 10 years of 31%, 13%, or 7% for baseline (untreated endemic chronic infection) prevalences of 20%, 40%, or 60%, respectively. Sensitivity analyses show that including the potential for immunity has minimal effect on the predictions; prevalence reductions remain even if SVR is assumed to be 25% lower among active IDU than current evidence suggests; retreatment of treatment failures does not alter the short-term (<5 years) projections, but does increase treatment gains within 20 years; hepatitis C free life years gained from treating active injecting drug users are projected to be higher than from treating non-injecting drug users for prevalences below 60%.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Despite the possibility of re-infection, modest rates of hepatitis C treatment among active injecting drug users could effectively reduce transmission. Evaluating and extending strategies to treat hepatitis C among active injectors are warranted.
authors.affiliation: Department of Social Medicine, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK. Natasha.Martin@bristol.ac.uk
authors.forename: Natasha K
authors.initials: NK
authors.lastname: Martin
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Vickerman
authors.forename: Graham R
authors.initials: GR
authors.lastname: Foster
authors.forename: Sharon J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Hutchinson
authors.forename: David J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Goldberg
authors.forename: Matthew
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Hickman
mesh_terms: D000998:Antiviral Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D006526:Hepatitis C / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000635:transmission; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D015995:Prevalence; D015819:Substance Abuse, Intravenous / Q000150:complications*; D013997:Time Factors
chemical_list: D000998:Antiviral Agents