title: Richards growth model and viability indicators for populations subject to interventions.
abstract: In this work we study the problem of modeling identification of a population employing a discrete dynamic model based on the Richards growth model. The population is subjected to interventions due to consumption, such as hunting or farming animals. The model identification allows us to estimate the probability or the average time for a population number to reach a certain level. The parameter inference for these models are obtained with the use of the likelihood profile technique as developed in this paper. The identification method here developed can be applied to evaluate the productivity of animal husbandry or to evaluate the risk of extinction of autochthon populations. It is applied to data of the Brazilian beef cattle herd population, and the the population number to reach a certain goal level is investigated.
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Estatística, Matemática Aplicada e Computação, Instituto de Geociências e Ciências Exatas, Universidade Estadual Paulista Julio de Mesquita Filho, Rio Claro, SP, Brasil.
authors.forename: Selene
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Loibel
authors.forename: Marinho G
authors.initials: MG
authors.lastname: Andrade
authors.forename: João B R
authors.initials: JB
authors.lastname: do Val
authors.forename: Alfredo R
authors.initials: AR
authors.lastname: de Freitas
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001938:Brazil; D002417:Cattle; D003198:Computer Simulation; D008954:Models, Biological; D011158:Population Growth; D011336:Probability