title: A climatic stability approach to prioritizing global conservation investments.
abstract: Climate change is impacting species and ecosystems globally. Many existing templates to identify the most important areas to conserve terrestrial biodiversity at the global scale neglect the future impacts of climate change. Unstable climatic conditions are predicted to undermine conservation investments in the future. This paper presents an approach to developing a resource allocation algorithm for conservation investment that incorporates the ecological stability of ecoregions under climate change. We discover that allocating funds in this way changes the optimal schedule of global investments both spatially and temporally. This allocation reduces the biodiversity loss of terrestrial endemic species from protected areas due to climate change by 22% for the period of 2002-2052, when compared to allocations that do not consider climate change. To maximize the resilience of global biodiversity to climate change we recommend that funding be increased in ecoregions located in the tropics and/or mid-elevation habitats, where climatic conditions are predicted to remain relatively stable. Accounting for the ecological stability of ecoregions provides a realistic approach to incorporating climate change into global conservation planning, with potential to save more species from extinction in the long term.
authors.affiliation: Ecology Centre, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia. t.iwamura@uq.edu.au
authors.forename: Takuya
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Iwamura
authors.forename: Kerrie A
authors.initials: KA
authors.lastname: Wilson
authors.forename: Oscar
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Venter
authors.forename: Hugh P
authors.initials: HP
authors.lastname: Possingham
mesh_terms: D000222:Adaptation, Physiological; D000465:Algorithms; D000818:Animals; D044822:Biodiversity; D002980:Climate; D057231:Climate Change; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000379:methods*; D017753:Ecosystem; D005843:Geography; D006801:Humans