title: Economic benefits of achieving realistic smoking cessation targets in Australia.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  We estimated the economic impact of reductions in the prevalence of tobacco smoking on health, production, and leisure in the 2008 Australian population.
  
  
  METHODS
  We selected a prevalence target of 15%. Cohort lifetime health benefits were modeled as fewer incident cases of tobacco-related diseases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years. We estimated production gains by comparing surveyed participation and absenteeism rates of adult smokers and ex-smokers valued according to the human capital and friction cost approaches. We estimated household production and leisure gains from time use surveys and valued these gains with the appropriate proxy.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In the 2008 Australian population, an absolute reduction in smoking prevalence of 8% would result in 158,000 fewer incident cases of disease, 5000 fewer deaths, 2.2 million fewer lost working days, and 3000 fewer early retirements and would reduce health sector costs by AUD 491 million. The gain in workforce production was AUD 415 million (friction cost) or AUD 863 million (human capital), along with gains of 373,000 days of household production and 23,000 days of leisure time.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Lowering smoking prevalence rates can lead to substantial economic savings and health benefits.
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Health, Medicine, Nursing and Behavioural Sciences, Deakin University, 221 Burwood Hwy, Burwood, Victoria 3125, Australia. anne.magnus@deakin.edu.au
authors.forename: Anne
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Magnus
authors.forename: Dominique
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Cadilhac
authors.forename: Lauren
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Sheppard
authors.forename: Toby
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Cumming
authors.forename: Dora
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Pearce
authors.forename: Rob
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Carter
mesh_terms: D000041:Absenteeism; D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D004526:Efficiency; D005260:Female; D006291:Health Policy / Q000191:economics*; D006296:Health Services / Q000191:economics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D007899:Leisure Activities / Q000191:economics; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D018803:Models, Economic; D009026:Mortality; D015995:Prevalence; D016540:Smoking Cessation / Q000191:economics*; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D055815:Young Adult