title: Increasing age- and sex-specific rates of hip fracture in Mexico: a survey of the Mexican Institute of Social Security.
abstract: This study, characterising the incidence of hip fracture in Mexico, showed that age- and sex-specific rates increased between 2000 and 2006. The demographic changes estimated for Mexico indicate that the annual number of hip fractures will rise from 29,732 in 2005 to 155,874 in 2050. If the age-specific incidence of hip fracture continues, the number of hip fractures would increase by a further 46%.
  
  
  BACKGROUND
  The aim of the present study was to determine time trends, if any, in hip fracture rates for Mexico and to forecast the number of hip fractures expected in Mexico over the coming years up to 2050.
  
  
  METHODS
  All hip fracture cases registered during the years 2000-2006 were collected at all the second and tertiary-care hospitals across the country from one of the largest health systems in Mexico, The Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (IMSS).
  
  
  RESULTS
  Between the years 2000 and 2006, the age-specific incidence of hip fracture increased significantly both for men and women by 1% per year (p = 0.016 and p < 0.001, respectively). In 2005, there were there were 29,732 hip fractures estimated in Mexico, 68% of which were found in women. Assuming no change in the age- and sex-specific incidence of hip fracture, the number of hip fractures was expected to increase markedly with time to 155,874 in 2050. Assuming that the age-specific incidence continues, the number of hip fractures in men and women would increase by a further 46% to 226,886 in 2050.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Demographic changes estimated for Mexico indicate that the annual number of hip fractures will rise from 29,732 in 2005 to 155,874 expected in 2050. If the age-specific incidence of hip fracture continues to rise, the number of hip fractures would increase by a further 46%.
authors.affiliation: WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield, S10 2RX, UK.
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Johansson
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Clark
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Carlos
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Oden
authors.forename: E V
authors.initials: EV
authors.lastname: McCloskey
authors.forename: J A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Kanis
mesh_terms: D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006306:Health Surveys; D006620:Hip Fractures / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008800:Mexico / Q000453:epidemiology; D008875:Middle Aged; D058866:Osteoporotic Fractures / Q000453:epidemiology*; D017678:Sex Distribution