title: A symbolic investigation of superspreaders.
abstract: Superspreaders are an important phenomenon in the spread of infectious disease, accounting for a higher than average number of new infections in the population. We use mathematical models to compare the impact of supershedders and supercontacters on population dynamics. The stochastic, individual based models are investigated by conversion to deterministic, population level Mean Field Equations, using process algebra. The mean emergent population dynamics of the models are shown to be equivalent with and without superspreaders; however, simulations confirm expectations of differences in variability, having implications for individual epidemics.
authors.affiliation: Department of Computing Science and Mathematics, University of Stirling, UK. cmc@cs.stir.ac.uk
authors.forename: Chris
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: McCaig
authors.forename: Mike
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Begon
authors.forename: Rachel
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Norman
authors.forename: Carron
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Shankland
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D001519:Behavior; D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D018562:Disease Transmission, Infectious; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D011157:Population Dynamics; D013269:Stochastic Processes