title: Predictive validity of a questionnaire to identify older adults at risk for hospitalization.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To test the predictive validity of the Probability of Repeated Hospital Admissions questionnaire among older adults.
  
  
  METHODS
  A population-based cohort study with a 6-month follow-up was implemented with 515 non-institutionalized older people (>60 years) cared for by the Family Health Strategy in the city of Progresso, Southern Brazil, in 2005. Participants answered eight objective questions that were entered in a logistic regression model to estimate the risk of future hospital admission, by risk strata. Survival analysis and the receiver operating characteristics curve were utilized to assess instrument validity.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Among participants, 56.1% were women and 10.1% were hospitalized. The high-risk group had a 6.5 times greater frequency of hospitalization in comparison to the low-risk category.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The instrument is effective in assessing the risk of hospitalization among older adults attended by the Family Health Program of the National Unified Health Care System.
authors.affiliation: Programa de Pós-Graduação em Medicina e Ciências da Saúde, Faculdade de Medicina, Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, RS, Brasil.
authors.forename: Michel Machado
authors.initials: MM
authors.lastname: Dutra
authors.forename: Emilio Hideyuki
authors.initials: EH
authors.lastname: Moriguchi
authors.forename: Melissa Agostini
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Lampert
authors.forename: Carlos Eduardo
authors.initials: CE
authors.lastname: Poli-de-Figueiredo
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001938:Brazil; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D005260:Female; D006760:Hospitalization / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009313:National Health Programs / Q000592:standards; D012307:Risk Factors; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires / Q000592:standards*