title: Markovian chains and the role of history in succession.
abstract: Marhovian chains are probabilistic matrix models used to simulate the dynamics of systems in which each transition depends upon the present state of the system, but is independent of the pathway that brought the system to its present state. Their application to ecological succession has not been especially fruitful. Appropriate Markovian models could be used to test successional hypotheses analogous to the Marhovian assumptions. However, serious mathematical and empirical difficulties thwart the development of adequate models, primarily because of the importance of historical and spatial factors in succession.
authors.affiliation: José Facelli is at the Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Mary Flagler Cary Arboretum, New York Botanical Garden, and the Dept of Biological Sciences, Rutgers University, PO Box 1059, Piscataway, NJ 08855, USA.
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Facelli
authors.forename: S T
authors.initials: ST
authors.lastname: Pickett