title: A methodology for modeling regional terrorism risk.
abstract: Over the past decade, terrorism risk has become a prominent consideration in protecting the well-being of individuals and organizations. More recently, there has been interest in not only quantifying terrorism risk, but also placing it in the context of an all-hazards environment in which consideration is given to accidents and natural hazards, as well as intentional acts. This article discusses the development of a regional terrorism risk assessment model designed for this purpose. The approach taken is to model terrorism risk as a dependent variable, expressed in expected annual monetary terms, as a function of attributes of population concentration and critical infrastructure. This allows for an assessment of regional terrorism risk in and of itself, as well as in relation to man-made accident and natural hazard risks, so that mitigation resources can be allocated in an effective manner. The adopted methodology incorporates elements of two terrorism risk modeling approaches (event-based models and risk indicators), producing results that can be utilized at various jurisdictional levels. The validity, strengths, and limitations of the model are discussed in the context of a case study application within the United States.
authors.affiliation: Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events,University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA. samrat.chatterjee@usc.edu
authors.forename: Samrat
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Chatterjee
authors.forename: Mark D
authors.initials: MD
authors.lastname: Abkowitz
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D003657:Decision Making; D004189:Disaster Planning; D006801:Humans; D017146:Models, Organizational; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012306:Risk; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012308:Risk Management; D012449:Safety; D013714:Tennessee; D023481:Terrorism / Q000191:economics*; D014481:United States