title: Estimation of fatalities due to road traffic crashes in Karachi, Pakistan, using capture-recapture method.
abstract: The objective of the study was to estimate the magnitude of road traffic fatalities occurring in Karachi, Pakistan. A 2-source capture-recapture model was applied to obtain a reliable estimate of the magnitude of the problem. A conservative adjusted estimate of fatalities generated, using data from 2 sources matched by at least name, gender, age, and location. In 2008, police reported 616 fatalities whereas hospitals recorded 1092 fatalities due to road traffic crashes. The capture- recapture analysis estimated at least 1375 fatalities. Police data show 55% deficit from the estimated figure and 43.6% deficit from the observed one, whereas hospital data show 20.6% deficit from the estimation. Road traffic crashes and resulting fatalities and injuries are a much more substantial health problem than is evident from official statistics. The capture-recapture analysis can be used as a tool to provide affordable and reliable estimates in developing countries where routine official statistics suffer from underreporting.
authors.affiliation: Jinnah Postgraduate Medical Centre, Karachi, Pakistan. mulateef@gmail.com
authors.forename: Muhammad Usman
authors.initials: MU
authors.lastname: Lateef
mesh_terms: D000063:Accidents, Traffic / Q000401:mortality*; D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D005260:Female; D006761:Hospitals / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D010154:Pakistan / Q000453:epidemiology; D016495:Police / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D011996:Records; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D014947:Wounds and Injuries / Q000401:mortality*; D055815:Young Adult