title: An investigation into the performance of methods for adjusting for sampling uncertainty in DNA likelihood ratio calculations.
abstract: There is a variety of methods for assessing sampling uncertainty in likelihood ratio calculations in DNA casework. Sampling uncertainty arises because all DNA statistical methods rely on a database of collected profiles. Such databases can be regarded as a sample from the population of interest. The act of taking a sample incurs sampling uncertainty. In some circumstances it may be desirable to provide some estimate of this uncertainty. We have addressed this topic in two previous publications [1,2]. In this paper we reconsider the performance of the methods using 15 locus Identifiler™ profiles, rather than the 6 locus data used in [1]. We also examine the differences in performance observed when using a uniform prior versus a 1/k prior in the Bayesian highest posterior density (HPD) method of Curran et al. [1].
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics, University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, New Zealand. j.curran@auckland.ac.nz
authors.forename: James M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Curran
authors.forename: John S
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Buckleton
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D004247:DNA / Q000235:genetics*; D006801:Humans; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D035501:Uncertainty
chemical_list: D004247:DNA