title: A Bayesian subgroup analysis with a zero-enriched Polya Urn scheme.
abstract: We introduce a new approach to inference for subgroups in clinical trials. We use Bayesian model selection, and a threshold on posterior model probabilities to identify subgroup effects for reporting. For each covariate of interest, we define a separate class of models, and use the posterior probability associated with each model and the threshold to determine the existence of a subgroup effect. As usual in Bayesian clinical trial design we compute frequentist operating characteristics, and achieve the desired error probabilities by choosing an appropriate threshold(s) for the posterior probabilities.
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematical Science, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH 45221-0025, U.S.A. sivagas@ucmail.uc.edu
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Sivaganesan
authors.forename: Purushottam W
authors.initials: PW
authors.lastname: Laud
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Müller
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D002986:Clinical Trials as Topic / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical