title: Predictive scoring in non-trauma emergency patients: a scoping review.
abstract: This study is an inclusive scoping review of the literature relating to outcome prediction in adult non-trauma emergency patients, in order to identify the number and range of risk scores developed for acutely ill adults and to identify the outcomes these scores predict. The data source used was Medline 1950-2009. To be eligible for inclusion, papers had to detail an assessment tool, wholly or predominantly clinical, applied at the point of patient presentation to unscheduled healthcare services with outcome measures up to 30 days after presentation. Papers detailing trauma, paediatrics, purely obstetric or psychiatric presentations, tools wholly applied in a critical care setting, tools requiring an algorithm not freely available, biomarkers or tests not routinely available in an Emergency Department (ED) setting were excluded. 192 papers were reviewed. Within 17 broad disease categories, 80 inclusion criteria were used, 119 tools were assessed (25 of which were non-disease specific), and 51 outcome measures were used (30 of which were disease-specific). The areas under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUROCs) varied from 0.44 to 0.984. The multiplicity of tools available presents a challenge in itself to the acute clinician. Many tools require a specific diagnosis, which is not immediately available, and the authors advocate ED development of tools for case-mix adjustment and clinical risk stratification.
authors.affiliation: Health Services Research, ScHARR, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK. kirstychallen@hotmail.com
authors.forename: Kirsty
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Challen
authors.forename: Steve W
authors.initials: SW
authors.lastname: Goodacre
mesh_terms: D004635:Emergency Medicine; D004636:Emergency Service, Hospital / Q000458:organization & administration; D006801:Humans; D017063:Outcome Assessment, Health Care; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*