title: Actual and predicted survival time of patients with spinal metastases of lung cancer: evaluation of the robustness of the Tokuhashi score.
abstract: METHODS
  In a retrospective analysis we evaluated the achieved and the predicted survival times according to the Tokuhashi score for patients with spinal metastases of lung cancer (lc).
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  Our aim was to investigate the robustness of the Tokuhashi Score for this group of patients.
  
  
  BACKGROUND
  The decision on operative versus conservative treatment for cancer patients with vertebral metastases depend on their predicted lifespan. Although the score of Tokuhashi is commonly used for prognostic predictions, it's reliability for specific tumor types (e.g., lc), has not been validated.
  
  
  METHODS
  Seventy-six patients who had undergone spinal surgery for lc metastases between 1999 and 2004 were verified according to the Tokuhashi score and predicted versus achieved survival times were compared.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The median overall survival (OS) after surgery for all patients was 108 (3-1767) days (102 [5-1767] days for patients with NSCLC [n = 49; 64.5%] and 108 [3-473] days for patients with SCLC [n = 24; 31.6%]). Survival times differed depending on the time period of procedure performance (OS 81 [3-435] days for patients operated between 1999 and 2001 [n = 38], 135 [8-1767] days for patients who received surgery between 2002 and 2004 [n = 38]). Actual and predicted survival were similar in 51 of 76 cases (67.1%), while there was no correlation in 25 of 76 (32.9%) cases. Results were comparable for all histologic subgroups.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Although the survival time of patients with vertebral metastases from lc has increased over the last 10 years, the overall outcome is still poor. For the prediction of an individual prognosis in the group of lc patients the score of Tokuhashi seems to be a suboptimal tool. We conclude that therapeutic decisions for such patients should be made based on interdisciplinary platforms, especially in the light of improved systemic treatment options.
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurosurgery, Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Germany. chessler@uke.uni-hamburg.de
authors.forename: Christian
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Hessler
authors.forename: Eik
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Vettorazzi
authors.forename: Juergen
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Madert
authors.forename: Carsten
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Bokemeyer
authors.forename: Jens
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Panse
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008175:Lung Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality* / Q000473:pathology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D013125:Spinal Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality* / Q000473:pathology / Q000556:secondary*; D015996:Survival Rate / Q000639:trends