title: 2500 years of European climate variability and human susceptibility.
abstract: Climate variations influenced the agricultural productivity, health risk, and conflict level of preindustrial societies. Discrimination between environmental and anthropogenic impacts on past civilizations, however, remains difficult because of the paucity of high-resolution paleoclimatic evidence. We present tree ring-based reconstructions of central European summer precipitation and temperature variability over the past 2500 years. Recent warming is unprecedented, but modern hydroclimatic variations may have at times been exceeded in magnitude and duration. Wet and warm summers occurred during periods of Roman and medieval prosperity. Increased climate variability from ~250 to 600 C.E. coincided with the demise of the western Roman Empire and the turmoil of the Migration Period. Such historical data may provide a basis for counteracting the recent political and fiscal reluctance to mitigate projected climate change.
authors.affiliation: Swiss Federal Research Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland. buentgen@wsl.ch
authors.forename: Ulf
authors.initials: U
authors.lastname: Büntgen
authors.forename: Willy
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Tegel
authors.forename: Kurt
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Nicolussi
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: McCormick
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Frank
authors.forename: Valerie
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Trouet
authors.forename: Jed O
authors.initials: JO
authors.lastname: Kaplan
authors.forename: Franz
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Herzig
authors.forename: Karl-Uwe
authors.initials: KU
authors.lastname: Heussner
authors.forename: Heinz
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Wanner
authors.forename: Jürg
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Luterbacher
authors.forename: Jan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Esper
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture / Q000266:history; D002962:Civilization / Q000266:history*; D057231:Climate Change / Q000266:history*; D055907:Climatic Processes; D058872:Epidemics / Q000266:history; D005060:Europe; D049668:History, 15th Century; D049669:History, 16th Century; D049670:History, 17th Century; D049671:History, 18th Century; D049672:History, 19th Century; D049673:History, 20th Century; D049674:History, 21st Century; D049690:History, Ancient; D049691:History, Medieval; D006801:Humans; D029963:Quercus / Q000254:growth & development; D012621:Seasons; D013696:Temperature; D014197:Trees / Q000254:growth & development