title: The impact of declining smoking on radon-related lung cancer in the United States.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  We examined the effect of current patterns of smoking rates on future radon-related lung cancer.
  
  
  METHODS
  We combined the model developed by the National Academy of Science's Committee on Health Risks of Exposure to Radon (the BEIR VI committee) for radon risk assessment with a forecasting model of US adult smoking prevalence to estimate proportional decline in radon-related deaths during the present century with and without mitigation of high-radon houses.
  
  
  RESULTS
  By 2025, the reduction in radon mortality from smoking reduction (15 percentage points) will surpass the maximum expected reduction from remediation (12 percentage points).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Although still a genuine source of public health concern, radon-induced lung cancer is likely to decline substantially, driven by reductions in smoking rates. Smoking decline will reduce radon deaths more that remediation of high-radon houses, a fact that policymakers should consider as they contemplate the future of cancer control.
authors.affiliation: Department of Health Management and Policy, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, 1415 Washington Heights, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2029, USA. dmendez@umich.edu
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Méndez
authors.forename: Omar
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Alshanqeety
authors.forename: Kenneth E
authors.initials: KE
authors.lastname: Warner
authors.forename: Paula M
authors.initials: PM
authors.lastname: Lantz
authors.forename: Paul N
authors.initials: PN
authors.lastname: Courant
mesh_terms: D006801:Humans; D008175:Lung Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D009381:Neoplasms, Radiation-Induced / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology; D015995:Prevalence; D011886:Radon; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012907:Smoking / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000453:epidemiology*
chemical_list: D011886:Radon