title: Estimated incidence of cardiovascular complications related to type 2 diabetes in Mexico using the UKPDS outcome model and a population-based survey.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  To estimate the incidence of complications, life expectancy and diabetes related mortality in the Mexican diabetic population over the next two decades using data from a nation-wide, population based survey and the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) outcome model.
  
  
  METHODS
  The cohort included all patients with type 2 diabetes evaluated during the National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANut) 2006. ENSANut is a probabilistic multistage stratified survey whose aim was to measure the prevalence of chronic diseases. A total of 47,152 households were visited. Results are shown stratified by gender, time since diagnosis (> or ≤ to 10 years) and age at the time of diagnosis (> or ≤ 40 years).
  
  
  RESULTS
  The prevalence of diabetes in our cohort was 14.4%. The predicted 20 year-incidence for chronic complications per 1000 individuals are: ischemic heart disease 112, myocardial infarction 260, heart failure 113, stroke 101, and amputation 62. Furthermore, 539 per 1000 patients will have a diabetes-related premature death. The average life expectancy for the diabetic population is 10.9 years (95%CI 10.7-11.2); this decreases to 8.3 years after adjusting for quality of life (CI95% 8.1-8.5). Male sex and cases diagnosed after age 40 have the highest risk for developing at least one major complication during the next 20 years.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Based on the current clinical profile of Mexican patients with diabetes, the burden of disease related complications will be tremendous over the next two decades.
authors.affiliation: Oficina del Subsecretario de Salud, Secretaria de Salud, (Lieja 7, Colonia Juárez), México City (06600) México.
authors.forename: Nancy
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Reynoso-Noverón
authors.forename: Roopa
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Mehta
authors.forename: Paloma
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Almeda-Valdes
authors.forename: Rosalba
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Rojas-Martinez
authors.forename: Salvador
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Villalpando
authors.forename: Mauricio
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Hernández-Ávila
authors.forename: Carlos A
authors.initials: CA
authors.lastname: Aguilar-Salinas
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D048909:Diabetes Complications / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D005260:Female; D006306:Health Surveys; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008017:Life Expectancy; D008297:Male; D008800:Mexico / Q000453:epidemiology; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D015995:Prevalence; D019057:Quality-Adjusted Life Years; D012044:Regression Analysis; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D012737:Sex Factors; D013997:Time Factors