Benefits and risks of live attenuated influenza vaccine in young children.
OBJECTIVE
To examine the benefit-risk profile of live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) across a range of clinical scenarios in which we varied assumptions regarding both the percentage of children who would receive LAIV in lieu of trivalent inactivated influenza virus (TIV) and the extent of off-label use.


METHODS
Model of expected benefits and risks of immunization of young children against influenza.


METHODS
We estimated expected numbers of cases of influenza illness (FLU), medically significant wheezing (MSW), and hospitalization in a single influenza season under alternative assumptions regarding use of LAIV in lieu of TIV, based on projections from a large phase III trial.


RESULTS
Assuming no use of LAIV in nonindicated children (aged <24 months and those with history of recurrent wheezing or asthma), and 50% use in lieu of TIV among children in the indicated population, there would be 2099 fewer FLU cases per 100,000 children aged 12 to 59 months, and no change in MSW or hospitalization. If LAIV also were used in lieu of TIV among 20% of children aged 12 to 23 months and 20% of children aged 24 to 59 months with a history of recurrent wheezing or asthma, there would be a further reduction of 397 FLU cases and 12 hospitalizations per 100,000 children aged 12 to 59 months, but 51 additional MSW cases.


CONCLUSIONS
Our study suggests that even if LAIV were sometimes used inadvertently in clinical practice in young children for whom it is not indicated, the overall balance of expected benefits and risks would remain favorable.
Policy Analysis, Inc, Brookline, MA 02445, USA. goster@pai2.com
Gerry
G
Oster
Derek
D
Weycker
John
J
Edelsberg
Kristin L
KL
Nichol
Jerome O
JO
Klein
Robert B
RB
Belshe
D000368:Aged; D000914:Antibodies, Viral / Q000276:immunology; D001249:Asthma / Q000150:complications; D002675:Child, Preschool; D017326:Clinical Trials, Phase III as Topic; D000075202:Contraindications; D006801:Humans; D017589:Immunization Programs; D007223:Infant; D007252:Influenza Vaccines / Q000009:adverse effects*; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000517:prevention & control*; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D014613:Vaccines, Attenuated / Q000008:administration & dosage / Q000009:adverse effects*
D000914:Antibodies, Viral; D007252:Influenza Vaccines; D014613:Vaccines, Attenuated