Modeling pedestrian violation behavior at signalized crosswalks in China: a hazards-based duration approach.
OBJECTIVE
Pedestrian violation is a major cause of traffic accidents involving pedestrians. The research objectives were to investigate the relationship between waiting duration and pedestrian violation and to provide a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the effects of human factors and external environmental factors on street-crossing behavior.


METHODS
Pedestrians' street-crossing behavior was examined by modeling the waiting duration at signalized crosswalk. Pedestrian waiting duration was collected by video cameras and it was assigned as censored and uncensored data to distinguish between normal crossing and violating crossing. A nonparametric baseline duration model was introduced, and variables revealing personal characteristics, traffic conditions, and trip features were defined as covariates to describe the effects of internal and external factors.


RESULTS
Pedestrians' crossing behaviors represented positive duration dependence that the longer the waiting time elapsed the more likely pedestrians would end the wait soon. The violation inclination of most pedestrians increased with the increasing waiting duration, but about 10 percent of pedestrians were at high risk of violation to cross the street. About half of pedestrians would still obey the traffic rules even after waiting for 50 s by the street. Human factors and the external environment played an important role in street-crossing behavior, especially for factors that involved pedestrians' subjective willingness.


CONCLUSIONS
The street-crossing behavior of pedestrians was time dependent. Pedestrians behave differently under the effects of various factors. Pedestrian safety interventions that aim at reducing pedestrian injuries may need to consider these effects. The pedestrians' behavioral modifications, such as enhancing the safety awareness, might be the most efficient means to reducing the likelihood of pedestrian violation, though environmental modifications also worked well in improving pedestrian safety.
Institute of System Science, School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, China. hwguo.bjtu@gmail.com
Hongwei
H
Guo
Ziyou
Z
Gao
Xiaobao
X
Yang
Xiaobei
X
Jiang
D000063:Accidents, Traffic; D000328:Adult; D002681:China; D036262:Empirical Research; D004779:Environment Design; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008960:Models, Psychological; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012309:Risk-Taking; D013997:Time Factors; D014743:Videotape Recording; D016138:Walking / Q000523:psychology*; D055815:Young Adult