Diagnosing acute coronary syndrome in primary care: comparison of the physicians' risk estimation and a clinical decision rule.
BACKGROUND
Diagnosing acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in a primary care setting poses a diagnostic dilemma for physicians.


OBJECTIVE
We directly compared the diagnostic accuracy of a clinical decision rule (CDR) based on history taking and physical examination in suspected ACS with the risk estimates of the attending GP.


METHODS
In a prospective multicenter study, patients suspected of ACS were included by the GP. GPs were asked to estimate the probability (0%-100%) of the presence of ACS. GPs collected patient data, but they were not aware of the CDR and did not score the patient accordingly.


RESULTS
Two hundred and ninety-eight patients were included (52% female, mean age 66 years, 22% ACS). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was 0.75 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.68-0.82] for the GP risk estimate and 0.66 (95% CI 0.58-0.73) for the CDR. There was an agreement between the risk estimation of the GP and a CDR in 51% and the prevalence of ACS in predefined low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups was similar for the GP and CDR estimates. In the low-risk group, according to the GP, four patients (8.2%) suffered an ACS. These four patients were all identified by the decision rule as high risk.


CONCLUSIONS
The GP classified patients as ACS or no ACS more adequately than the CDR, judged by the AUC. However, the use of a CDR in patients that are considered at low risk for ACS by the GP could reduce the amount of missed myocardial infarctions.
Department of General practice and Epidemiology, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, 3508 GA Utrecht, The Netherlands. m.h.e.bruinsslot@umcutrecht.nl
M H E
MH
Bruins Slot
F H
FH
Rutten
G J M G
GJ
van der Heijden
G J
GJ
Geersing
J F C
JF
Glatz
A W
AW
Hoes
D054058:Acute Coronary Syndrome / Q000175:diagnosis*; D000368:Aged; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D058007:Physicians, Primary Care; D011320:Primary Health Care; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012372:ROC Curve; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*