title: Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe.
abstract: Quantitative estimates of the economic damages of climate change usually are based on aggregate relationships linking average temperature change to loss in gross domestic product (GDP). However, there is a clear need for further detail in the regional and sectoral dimensions of impact assessments to design and prioritize adaptation strategies. New developments in regional climate modeling and physical-impact modeling in Europe allow a better exploration of those dimensions. This article quantifies the potential consequences of climate change in Europe in four market impact categories (agriculture, river floods, coastal areas, and tourism) and one nonmarket impact (human health). The methodology integrates a set of coherent, high-resolution climate change projections and physical models into an economic modeling framework. We find that if the climate of the 2080s were to occur today, the annual loss in household welfare in the European Union (EU) resulting from the four market impacts would range between 0.2-1%. If the welfare loss is assumed to be constant over time, climate change may halve the EU's annual welfare growth. Scenarios with warmer temperatures and a higher rise in sea level result in more severe economic damage. However, the results show that there are large variations across European regions. Southern Europe, the British Isles, and Central Europe North appear most sensitive to climate change. Northern Europe, on the other hand, is the only region with net economic benefits, driven mainly by the positive effects on agriculture. Coastal systems, agriculture, and river flooding are the most important of the four market impacts assessed.
authors.affiliation: Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Joint Research Center, 41092 Seville, Spain. juan-carlos.ciscar@ec.europa.eu
authors.forename: Juan-Carlos
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Ciscar
authors.forename: Ana
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Iglesias
authors.forename: Luc
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Feyen
authors.forename: László
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Szabó
authors.forename: Denise
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Van Regemorter
authors.forename: Bas
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Amelung
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Nicholls
authors.forename: Paul
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Watkiss
authors.forename: Ole B
authors.initials: OB
authors.lastname: Christensen
authors.forename: Rutger
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Dankers
authors.forename: Luis
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Garrote
authors.forename: Clare M
authors.initials: CM
authors.lastname: Goodess
authors.forename: Alistair
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Hunt
authors.forename: Alvaro
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Moreno
authors.forename: Julie
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Richards
authors.forename: Antonio
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Soria
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture / Q000191:economics*; D057231:Climate Change / Q000191:economics*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004777:Environment; D005060:Europe; D055868:Floods / Q000191:economics*; D018803:Models, Economic; D018570:Risk Assessment; D014195:Travel / Q000191:economics*