title: Head and neck cancer in Australia between 1982 and 2005 show increasing incidence of potentially HPV-associated oropharyngeal cancers.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Although tobacco- and alcohol-associated head and neck cancers are declining in the developed world, potentially human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated oropharnygeal cancers are increasing.
  
  
  METHODS
  We analysed oropharyngeal and oral cavity cancer rates in Australia in 1982-2005. Cancers from the oropharynx (base of tongue, tonsil and other specific oropharyngeal sites) were classified as potentially HPV associated (n=8844); cancers in other oral cavity and oropharyngeal sites not previously associated with HPV were classified as comparison (n=28,379).
  
  
  RESULTS
  In 2000-2005, an average of 219, 159 and 110 cancers of the tonsil, base of tongue and other oropharyngeal sites were diagnosed annually, with incidences of 1.09 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.15), 0.79 (95% CI: 0.74, 0.84) and 0.55 (95% CI: 0.50, 0.59) per 100,000, respectively. An average of 1242 comparison cancers were diagnosed annually (6.17 (95% CI: 6.03, 6.31) per 100,000). In 1982-2005, there were significant annual increases in tonsil (1.39% (95% CI: 0.88, 1.92%)) and base of tongue cancers in males (3.02% (95% CI: 2.27, 3.78%)) and base of tongue cancer in females (3.45% (95% CI: 2.21, 4.70%)). There was a significant decrease in comparison cancers in men (-1.69% (95% CI: -1.96, -1.42%)), but not in females.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Potentially HPV-associated oropharyngeal cancer in Australia is increasing; the impact of HPV vaccination on these cancers should be monitored.
authors.affiliation: Centre for Women's Health, Gender and Society, University of Melbourne, 2/723 Swanston Street, Carlton 3053, Victoria, Australia. jhocking@unimelb.edu.au
authors.forename: J S
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Hocking
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Stein
authors.forename: E L
authors.initials: EL
authors.lastname: Conway
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Regan
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Grulich
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Law
authors.forename: J M L
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Brotherton
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001315:Australia; D002294:Carcinoma, Squamous Cell / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006258:Head and Neck Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009062:Mouth Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000821:virology; D009959:Oropharyngeal Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology*; D027383:Papillomaviridae; D030361:Papillomavirus Infections / Q000150:complications*; D013997:Time Factors