title: Fracture risk score and absolute risk of fracture.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To report the 5- and 10-year absolute risk of fracture associated with the previously reported fracture risk (FRISK) score.
  
  
  METHODS
  All participants gave written, informed consent, and the Barwon Health Human Research Ethics Committee approved the study. An age-stratified population-based sample of women aged 60 years and older (n = 600) was recruited during 1994-1996. FRISK scores of 0-10 incorporating bone mineral density (BMD) at two sites (hip and spine), falls scores in the previous 12 months of 1-4, weight, and number of fractures as an adult were calculated. Fractures of the hip, spine, humerus, and wrist were ascertained during a median follow-up period of 9.6 years (interquartile range, 6.6-10.5). The cumulative probability of fracture at 5 and 10 years after baseline measurements was calculated by using actuarial methods. The utility of this model was compared with other FRISK algorithms, including the World Health Organization FRISK assessment tool FRAX designed for United Kingdom and that designed for the United States and the Garvan nomogram (Australia).
  
  
  RESULTS
  This study supplies the 5- and 10-year absolute risk of fracture associated with all levels of the FRISK score. While there are modest differences in absolute risk of fracture seen for different numbers of prior fractures, the more marked differences occur across the different categories of falls scores and different categories of BMD. The receiver operating characteristic curves showed no significant difference in area under the curve for all four absolute risk of fracture algorithms.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Absolute risk of fracture can be determined by using readily obtainable clinical information that may aid treatment decisions.
authors.affiliation: Department of Clinical and Biomedical Sciences-Barwon Health, Epidemiology and Biostatistics Unit, University of Melbourne, PO Box 281, Geelong, VIC 3220, Australia. margh@BarwonHealth.org.au
authors.forename: Margaret J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Henry
authors.forename: Julie A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Pasco
authors.forename: Elizabeth N
authors.initials: EN
authors.lastname: Merriman
authors.forename: Yu
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.forename: Kerrie M
authors.initials: KM
authors.lastname: Sanders
authors.forename: Mark A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Kotowicz
authors.forename: Geoffrey C
authors.initials: GC
authors.lastname: Nicholson
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000465:Algorithms; D019540:Area Under Curve; D015519:Bone Density; D005260:Female; D050723:Fractures, Bone / Q000209:etiology*; D006801:Humans; D016014:Linear Models; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008875:Middle Aged; D015663:Osteoporosis, Postmenopausal / Q000150:complications*; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012372:ROC Curve; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012307:Risk Factors; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity