title: An estimate of the magnitude and trend of HIV/AIDS epidemic using data from the routine VCT services as an alternative data source to ANC sentinel surveillance in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Since early 1980s when AIDS was first recognized, there has been uncertainty about the future trend and the ultimate dimensions of the pandemic. This uncertainty persists because of difficulties in measuring HIV incidence and prevalence with a substantial degree of precision in a given population. One of the many factors for the lack of precision is the problem of obtaining representative data sources that can be extrapolated to the general population. National and regional HIV estimates for Ethiopia are derived from ANC based HIV surveillance data. Alternative data sources have not been exhaustively explored as potential tools to monitor the trend of HIV/ AIDS epidemic in the country.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To estimate the magnitude and trend of HIV/AIDS epidemic using data from the routine VCT services as an alternative data source to ANC sentinel surveillance data.
  
  
  METHODS
  The study used secondary data sources from all government, private and NGO VCT centers, of the period of 2003-2005 in Addis Ababa. For the purpose of making comparative analysis of the VCT based estimations and projections, records of all five sentinel sites in Addis Ababa for the period 1983-2003 were reviewed.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Both ANC and VCT data sources showed similar and regular trends from the beginning of the HIV epidemic till the year 1995 where the ANC showed a relatively higher prevalence rates than VCT data, with a maximum difference in HIV prevalence of 1.06% in 1993. However, a higher HIV prevalence was noted for the VCT than the ANC data source for the period of 1996-2002, with a maximum difference of 1.4% in 1998, the year when both the ANC and VCT modeled HIV prevalence reached the highest peak in Addis Ababa. On the contrary, the ANC based prevalence was higher than the VCT data for the period 2004-2010, with a maximum difference of 2.2%.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This study suggests that VCT based HIV prevalence data closely approximates the ANC based data. Therefore VCT data source can be valuable to complement the ANC data in monitoring the HIV epidemic and trend.
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics, Jimma University.
authors.forename: Yehenew
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Getachew
authors.forename: Butte
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Gotu
authors.forename: Fikre
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Enquselassie
mesh_terms: D015492:AIDS Serodiagnosis; D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D003376:Counseling; D003625:Data Collection / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D058872:Epidemics; D005002:Ethiopia / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D015528:HIV Seroprevalence; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008017:Life Expectancy; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality; D011247:Pregnancy; D011251:Pregnancy Complications, Infectious / Q000453:epidemiology; D011295:Prenatal Care; D018571:Sentinel Surveillance