title: Modeling the relationship between precipitation and malaria incidence in children from a holoendemic area in Ghana.
abstract: Climatic factors influence the incidence of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. They modify the abundance of mosquito populations, the length of the extrinsic parasite cycle in the mosquito, the malarial dynamics, and the emergence of epidemics in areas of low endemicity. The objective of this study was to investigate temporal associations between weekly malaria incidence in 1,993 children < 15 years of age and weekly rainfall. A time series analysis was conducted by using cross-correlation function and autoregressive modeling. The regression model showed that the level of rainfall predicted the malaria incidence after a time lag of 9 weeks (mean = 60 days) and after a time lag between one and two weeks. The analyses provide evidence that high-resolution precipitation data can directly predict malaria incidence in a highly endemic area. Such models might enable the development of early warning systems and support intervention measures.
authors.affiliation: Bernhard-Nocht-Institute for Tropical Medicine, Hamburg, Germany; German Forces at Bernhard-Nocht-Institute for Tropical Medicine, Hamburg, Germany. krefis@bni-hamburg.de
authors.forename: Anne Caroline
authors.initials: AC
authors.lastname: Krefis
authors.forename: Norbert Georg
authors.initials: NG
authors.lastname: Schwarz
authors.forename: Andreas
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Krüger
authors.forename: Julius
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Fobil
authors.forename: Bernard
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Nkrumah
authors.forename: Samuel
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Acquah
authors.forename: Wibke
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Loag
authors.forename: Nimako
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Sarpong
authors.forename: Yaw
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Adu-Sarkodie
authors.forename: Ulrich
authors.initials: U
authors.lastname: Ranft
authors.forename: Jürgen
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: May
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000818:Animals; D000852:Anopheles / Q000469:parasitology; D002648:Child; D005869:Ghana / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008288:Malaria / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology; D016778:Malaria, Falciparum / Q000453:epidemiology; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D010963:Plasmodium falciparum; D011891:Rain; D012044:Regression Analysis; D013997:Time Factors