title: Emergent dynamics of the climate-economy system in the Anthropocene.
abstract: Global CO(2) emissions are understood to be the largest contributor to anthropogenic climate change, and have, to date, been highly correlated with economic output. However, there is likely to be a negative feedback between climate change and human wealth: economic growth is typically associated with an increase in CO(2) emissions and global warming, but the resulting climate change may lead to damages that suppress economic growth. This climate-economy feedback is assumed to be weak in standard climate change assessments. When the feedback is incorporated in a transparently simple model it reveals possible emergent behaviour in the coupled climate-economy system. Formulae are derived for the critical rates of growth of global CO(2) emissions that cause damped or long-term boom-bust oscillations in human wealth, thereby preventing a soft landing of the climate-economy system. On the basis of this model, historical rates of economic growth and decarbonization appear to put the climate-economy system in a potentially damaging oscillatory regime.
authors.affiliation: College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, North Park Road, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK. o.kellie-smith@exeter.ac.uk
authors.forename: Owen
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Kellie-Smith
authors.forename: Peter M
authors.initials: PM
authors.lastname: Cox