title: Assessment of EuroSCORE in patients undergoing aortic valve replacement.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The logistic EuroSCORE (European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation) is a risk stratification system used to predict the operative risk in patients undergoing surgical aortic valve replacement (AVR). The aim of this study is to investigate how accurate this system is, and how it compares to the observed risk.
  
  
  RESULTS
  From January 1, 2004 through December 31, 2009, 1389 patients underwent AVR ± coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) (865 primary isolated AVR and 524 AVR + CABG) at the New Royal Infirmary Edinburgh. The logistic EuroSCORE was calculated for each patient and summed up for expected in-hospital mortality. Expected and observed mortalities were compared. On the whole, the in-hospital mortality was 3% and was overestimated by the logistic EuroSCORE that predicted 7.2% mortality (p = 0.05). This discrepancy was even more pronounced in high-risk patients, where the in-hospital mortality was 8%, while the logistic EuroSCORE predicted 19.5% (p = 0.03).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The logistic EuroSCORE overestimates the risks for AVR. Therefore, it should not be used to deny high-risk patients a surgical AVR.
authors.affiliation: Edinburgh University, Edinburgh Royal Infirmary, Edinburgh, United Kingdom. s0676762@sms.ed.ac.uk
authors.forename: Nathan C
authors.initials: NC
authors.lastname: Skipper
authors.forename: Julian
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Matingal
authors.forename: Vipin
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Zamvar
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D001021:Aortic Valve / Q000601:surgery*; D001024:Aortic Valve Stenosis / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery*; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D019918:Heart Valve Prosthesis Implantation / Q000379:methods*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D011379:Prognosis; D012372:ROC Curve; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012606:Scotland / Q000453:epidemiology; D015996:Survival Rate / Q000639:trends