title: Antihypertensive medication versus health promotion for improving metabolic syndrome in preventing cardiovascular events: a success rate-oriented simulation study.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  In practice, it is difficult to compare the effectiveness of traditional antihypertensive treatment with that of health promotion in reducing incidence rate of cardiovascular disease (IRCVD, events/year). This simulation study compared the effectiveness of two approaches to reducing IRCVD in a sample population: a traditional approach, in which high-risk patients are treated with conventional antihypertensive medications, and a population-based approach, in which subjects participate in a health promotion program.
  
  
  METHODS
  We constructed a simulation model for a sample population of middle-aged Japanese men whose systolic blood pressure (SBP) levels are normally distributed (130 ± 20 mm Hg). The principal assumption was that IRCVD increases exponentially according to SBP. The population IRCVD was calculated as the product of the distribution of SBP multiplied by IRCVD at each SBP. The cumulative IRCVD was calculated by the definite integral from the lowest to the highest SBP of IRCVD at each SBP level. The success rates were calculated according to SBP and metabolic risk profiles in the two approaches, respectively.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The reduction in IRCVD was twice as large for antihypertensive medications as it was for health promotion in several situations. For example, if adherence to antihypertensive treatment occurred at a realistic level, the decrease in IRCVD was estimated at 9.99 × 10(-4). In contrast, even if the health program was promoted optimistically, the decrease in IRCVD was estimated at 4.69 × 10(-4).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The success rate-oriented simulation suggests that prescribing antihypertensive medications is superior to promoting the health promotion program in reducing IRCVD in virtual middle-aged Japanese men.
authors.affiliation: Community Health Science Center, Saitama Medical University, Saitama, Japan. yo1-ohno@bk2.so-net.ne.jp
authors.forename: Yoichi
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Ohno
authors.forename: Satomi
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Shibazaki
authors.forename: Ryuichiro
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Araki
authors.forename: Takashi
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Miyazaki
authors.forename: Mayuko
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Hanyu
authors.forename: Makiko
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Satoh
authors.forename: Tsuneo
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Takenaka
authors.forename: Hirokazu
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Okada
authors.forename: Hiromichi
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Suzuki
mesh_terms: D000959:Antihypertensive Agents / Q000494:pharmacology / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D006293:Health Promotion; D006801:Humans; D006973:Hypertension / Q000150:complications / Q000188:drug therapy*; D024821:Metabolic Syndrome / Q000150:complications* / Q000188:drug therapy; D012307:Risk Factors; D016896:Treatment Outcome
chemical_list: D000959:Antihypertensive Agents