title: Consistent phenological shifts in the making of a biodiversity hotspot: the Cape flora.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The best documented survival responses of organisms to past climate change on short (glacial-interglacial) timescales are distributional shifts. Despite ample evidence on such timescales for local adaptations of populations at specific sites, the long-term impacts of such changes on evolutionary significant units in response to past climatic change have been little documented. Here we use phylogenies to reconstruct changes in distribution and flowering ecology of the Cape flora--South Africa's biodiversity hotspot--through a period of past (Neogene and Quaternary) changes in the seasonality of rainfall over a timescale of several million years.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Forty-three distributional and phenological shifts consistent with past climatic change occur across the flora, and a comparable number of clades underwent adaptive changes in their flowering phenology (9 clades; half of the clades investigated) as underwent distributional shifts (12 clades; two thirds of the clades investigated). Of extant Cape angiosperm species, 14-41% have been contributed by lineages that show distributional shifts consistent with past climate change, yet a similar proportion (14-55%) arose from lineages that shifted flowering phenology.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Adaptive changes in ecology at the scale we uncover in the Cape and consistent with past climatic change have not been documented for other floras. Shifts in climate tolerance appear to have been more important in this flora than is currently appreciated, and lineages that underwent such shifts went on to contribute a high proportion of the flora's extant species diversity. That shifts in phenology, on an evolutionary timescale and on such a scale, have not yet been detected for other floras is likely a result of the method used; shifts in flowering phenology cannot be detected in the fossil record.
authors.affiliation: School of Biological Sciences, Lyle Tower, University of Reading, Whiteknights, Reading RG6 6BX, UK. ben.warren@cirad.fr
authors.forename: Ben H
authors.initials: BH
authors.lastname: Warren
authors.forename: Freek T
authors.initials: FT
authors.lastname: Bakker
authors.forename: Dirk U
authors.initials: DU
authors.lastname: Bellstedt
authors.forename: Benny
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Bytebier
authors.forename: Regine
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Classen-Bockhoff
authors.forename: Léanne L
authors.initials: LL
authors.lastname: Dreyer
authors.forename: Dawn
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Edwards
authors.forename: Félix
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Forest
authors.forename: Chloé
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Galley
authors.forename: Christopher R
authors.initials: CR
authors.lastname: Hardy
authors.forename: H Peter
authors.initials: HP
authors.lastname: Linder
authors.forename: A Muthama
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Muasya
authors.forename: Klaus
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Mummenhoff
authors.forename: Kenneth C
authors.initials: KC
authors.lastname: Oberlander
authors.forename: Marcus
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Quint
authors.forename: James E
authors.initials: JE
authors.lastname: Richardson
authors.forename: Vincent
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Savolainen
authors.forename: Brian D
authors.initials: BD
authors.lastname: Schrire
authors.forename: Timotheüs
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: van der Niet
authors.forename: G Anthony
authors.initials: GA
authors.lastname: Verboom
authors.forename: Christopher
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Yesson
authors.forename: Julie A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Hawkins
mesh_terms: D044822:Biodiversity; D005075:Biological Evolution; D057231:Climate Change; D004463:Ecology / Q000379:methods; D019684:Magnoliopsida / Q000145:classification / Q000235:genetics; D010802:Phylogeny; D013019:South Africa