title: European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2011.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Mortality figures become available after some years.
  
  
  METHODS
  Using the World Health Organization mortality and population data, we estimated numbers of deaths in 2011 from all cancers and selected sites for the European Union (EU) and six major countries, by fitting a joinpoint model to 5-year age-specific numbers of deaths. Age-standardized rates were computed using EUROSTAT population estimates.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The predicted number of cancer deaths in the EU in 2011 was 1,281,436, with standardized rates of 143/100,000 men and 85/100,000 women. Poland had the highest rates, with smaller falls over recent periods. Declines in mortality for major sites including stomach, colorectum, breast, uterus, prostate and leukemias, plus male lung cancer, will continue until 2011, and a trend reversal or a leveling off is predicted where upward trends were previously observed. Female lung cancer rates are increasing in all major EU countries except the UK, where it is the first cause of cancer death, as now in Poland. The increasing pancreatic cancer trends in women observed up to 2004 have likely leveled off.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Despite falls in rates, absolute numbers of cancer deaths are stable in Europe. The gap between Western and former nonmarket economy countries will likely persist.
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche 'Mario Negri', Milan; Department of Occupational Health, Section of Medical Statistics, University of Milan, Milan; Department of Medical Statistics, Biometry and Bioinformatics, National Tumor Institute, Milan, Italy.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Malvezzi
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche 'Mario Negri', Milan.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Arfé
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche 'Mario Negri', Milan; Department of Occupational Health, Section of Medical Statistics, University of Milan, Milan.
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Bertuccio
authors.affiliation: Cancer Epidemiology Unit and Vaud and Neuchâtel Cancer Registries, Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois and University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Levi
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche 'Mario Negri', Milan; Department of Occupational Health, Section of Medical Statistics, University of Milan, Milan. Electronic address: carlo.lavecchia@marionegri.it.
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: La Vecchia
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche 'Mario Negri', Milan.
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Negri
mesh_terms: D003627:Data Interpretation, Statistical; D005060:Europe / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D009369:Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality*; D014944:World Health Organization