title: Violence risk appraisal of male and female youth, adults, and individuals.
abstract: Data from youth (n = 1,127), adults (n = 1,595), and individuals (N = 2,722, combined youth and adults) were followed 3 to 12 years in records to develop items to predict abuse, violence, and homicide in these 3 relevant groups for risk appraisal or safety scales. Shao's bootstrapped logistic regression yielded 14 predictors for youth (AUC = .91), 11 for adults (AUC = .99), and 13 for individuals (AUC = .96). Three regression equations were cross-validated with in-bag and out-of-bag techniques. Pearson coefficients were computed with intelligence, achievement, adaptive behavior, and perception tests. Test-retest reliability was acceptable. Using case-control quasi-experimental design, this study extends probation-parole decision-making tests to infants and children as young as 3 years, with convergent and divergent validity and reliability with other tests. Sensitivity and specificity were high and minimized over- or under-identification challenges in identifying potentially violent persons in the general population.
authors.affiliation: drzagar@msn.com
authors.forename: Robert John
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Zagar
authors.forename: William M
authors.initials: WM
authors.lastname: Grove
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000374:Aggression; D019540:Area Under Curve; D002648:Child; D002649:Child Abuse; D005260:Female; D006708:Homicide; D006801:Humans; D007604:Juvenile Delinquency; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D014754:Violence