title: A novel field-based approach to validate the use of network models for disease spread between dairy herds.
abstract: The introduction of a centralized system for recording cattle movements in the UK has provided a framework for network-based models for disease spread. However, there are many types of non-reportable contacts between farms which may play a role in disease spread. The lack of real pathogen data with which to test network models makes it difficult to assess whether reported data adequately captures the risk-potential network between farms and improves the accuracy of disease forecasts. A novel multi-disciplinary approach is described whereby network-based models, built upon reported cattle movements and non-reportable local contacts between study farms, are parameterized using field data on bovine Staphylococcus aureus strains. Reported cattle movements were found to play a role in strain spread between farms, but other contacts via farm visitors were also correlated with strain distribution, suggesting that parameterizing contact networks using cattle-tracing data alone may not adequately capture the disease dynamics.
authors.affiliation: Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK. l.garcia-alvarez@imperial.ac.uk
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: García Álvarez
authors.forename: C R
authors.initials: CR
authors.lastname: Webb
authors.forename: M A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Holmes
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001522:Behavior, Animal; D002417:Cattle; D016000:Cluster Analysis; D003612:Dairying; D004739:England; D005260:Female; D008124:Locomotion; D008414:Mastitis, Bovine / Q000635:transmission*; D008954:Models, Biological; D016571:Neural Networks, Computer; D018570:Risk Assessment; D013203:Staphylococcal Infections / Q000635:transmission / Q000662:veterinary*; D013211:Staphylococcus aureus / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires