title: Validation of the "Metroticket" predictor in a cohort of patients transplanted for predominantly HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The "Metroticket" prognostic model for survival post liver transplant for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) was developed from a European cohort of patients with predominantly alcoholic liver disease and hepatitis C-related HCC. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of the Metroticket in an independent cohort of patients with predominantly HBV-related HCC, in an Asia-Pacific transplant programme.
  
  
  METHODS
  All patients listed for HCC at the New Zealand Liver Transplant Unit (NZLTU) between January 1998 and November 2009 were included. For each patient, the predicted 3 and 5 year post-transplant survival score was calculated using the Metroticket model (http://www.hcc-oltmetroticket.org/calculator/index.php). The observed and predicted survivals were compared.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Ninety-five patients with HCC were listed, 82 were transplanted (40 with HBV) and 13 delisted for progression. Predicted survival calculated by the Metroticket model based on pre-transplant radiological data (n = 82) was 76.3% and 69.7% at 3 and 5 years, respectively, while the observed survival was 83% (49/59) and 74% (35/47), respectively. Of the 40 patients with HBV, observed survivals were 84% (26/31) and 80% (20/25) at 3 and 5 years, compared with 80% (23/28) and 69.6% (16/23), respectively, for the 42 patients without HBV. On intent to treat analysis, survival after listing was 73.8% (95% CI 62.7-82.1) at 3 years and 69.1% (53.7-78.2%) at 5 years. AFP level was associated with vascular invasion.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The Metroticket calculator incorporating pre-transplant radiological Staging was an accurate predictor of post-transplant survival in a cohort of predominantly HBV-related HCC.
authors.affiliation: New Zealand Liver Transplant Unit, Auckland City Hospital, Auckland 1023, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Ashok
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Raj
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: McCall
authors.forename: Edward
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Gane
mesh_terms: D006528:Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging* / Q000473:pathology / Q000601:surgery*; D005260:Female; D006509:Hepatitis B / Q000150:complications; D006801:Humans; D008113:Liver Neoplasms / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging* / Q000473:pathology / Q000601:surgery*; D016031:Liver Transplantation; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009367:Neoplasm Staging; D009520:New Zealand; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D011859:Radiography; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D016019:Survival Analysis