title: Assessing the consequences of an incursion of a vector-borne disease I. Identifying feasible incursion scenarios for bluetongue in Scotland.
abstract: Following the arrival of bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) in southeast England in September 2007, the Scottish Government commissioned research to assess the economic consequences of a BTV-8 incursion to Scotland. Here we present the first component of the assessment, which entailed identifying feasible incursion scenarios for the virus. Our analyses focused on three routes of introduction: wind-borne dispersal of infected vectors, import of infected animals and northwards spread of BTV from affected areas in GB. These analyses were further refined by considering the spatial and temporal variation in the probability of onward transmission from an initial incursion.
authors.affiliation: Institute for Animal Health, Pirbright Laboratory, Ash Road, Pirbright, Surrey GU24 0NF, UK. Electronic address: simon.gubbins@bbsrc.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Simon
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Gubbins
authors.affiliation: Institute for Animal Health, Pirbright Laboratory, Ash Road, Pirbright, Surrey GU24 0NF, UK.
authors.forename: Camille
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Szmaragd
authors.affiliation: The Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK.
authors.forename: Laura
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Burgin
authors.affiliation: Institute for Animal Health, Pirbright Laboratory, Ash Road, Pirbright, Surrey GU24 0NF, UK.
authors.forename: Anthony
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Wilson
authors.affiliation: Epidemiology Group, Centre for Infectious Diseases, School of Biological Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Ashworth Laboratories, Kings Buildings, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JT, UK.
authors.forename: Victoriya
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Volkova
authors.affiliation: The Met Office, currently based at Institute for Animal Health, Pirbright Laboratory, Ash Road, Pirbright, Surrey GU24 0NF, UK.
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Gloster
authors.affiliation: Epidemiology Research Unit, Animal Health Group, SAC Research, Kings Buildings, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JT, UK.
authors.forename: George J
authors.initials: GJ
authors.lastname: Gunn
mesh_terms: D000822:Animal Husbandry; D000818:Animals; D001819:Bluetongue / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission; D001820:Bluetongue virus; D002417:Cattle; D002418:Cattle Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology; D002519:Ceratopogonidae / Q000821:virology; D058872:Epidemics / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000662:veterinary; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000821:virology; D012606:Scotland / Q000453:epidemiology; D012756:Sheep / Q000821:virology; D006113:United Kingdom / Q000453:epidemiology; D014919:Wind