title: The diagnostic performance of scoring systems to identify symptomatic colorectal cancer compared to current referral guidance.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To determine the discrimination characteristics of a new algorithm and two existing symptom scoring systems for identification of patients with suspected colorectal cancer.
  
  
  METHODS
  Derivation of algorithm by a case-control study and assessment of discrimination characteristics using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. Three colorectal cancer scoring systems were investigated. The Bristol-Birmingham (BB) equation, which we derived from a large primary care dataset; the CAPER score, previously derived from a primary care case-control study and a symptom score derived from National Institute of Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidance for urgent referral of symptomatic patients. Their discrimination characteristics were investigated in two datasets: the BB derivation dataset and the CAPER score derivation dataset. The main analyses were ROC curves and the areas under them for all three algorithms in both datasets. Setting Electronic primary care databases. Main outcome measures Diagnosis of colorectal cancer.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In the BB dataset, areas under the curve were: BB equation 0.83 (95% CI 0.82 to 0.84); CAPER 0.79 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.80); the NICE guidelines 0.65 (95% CI 0.64 to 0.66). In the CAPER dataset, areas under the curve were: BB 0.92 (95% CI 0.91 to 0.94); CAPER 0.91 (95% CI 0.89 to 0.93); NICE guidelines 0.75 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.79). In subjects under 50 the discrimination characteristics of NICE referral guidelines were no better than chance.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Both multivariable symptom scoring systems performed significantly better than NICE referral guidelines.
authors.affiliation: Department of Public Health and Epidemiology, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK. t.p.marshall@bham.ac.uk
authors.forename: Tom
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Marshall
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Lancashire
authors.forename: Debbie
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Sharp
authors.forename: Tim J
authors.initials: TJ
authors.lastname: Peters
authors.forename: K K
authors.initials: KK
authors.lastname: Cheng
authors.forename: William
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Hamilton
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000465:Algorithms; D015179:Colorectal Neoplasms / Q000175:diagnosis*; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D017410:Practice Guidelines as Topic; D012017:Referral and Consultation; D017678:Sex Distribution