title: Mapping the basic reproduction number (R₀) for vector-borne diseases: a case study on bluetongue virus.
abstract: Geographical maps indicating the value of the basic reproduction number, R₀, can be used to identify areas of higher risk for an outbreak after an introduction. We develop a methodology to create R₀ maps for vector-borne diseases, using bluetongue virus as a case study. This method provides a tool for gauging the extent of environmental effects on disease emergence. The method involves integrating vector-abundance data with statistical approaches to predict abundance from satellite imagery and with the biologically mechanistic modelling that underlies R₀. We illustrate the method with three applications for bluetongue virus in the Netherlands: 1) a simple R₀ map for the situation in September 2006, 2) species-specific R₀ maps based on satellite-data derived predictions, and 3) monthly R₀ maps throughout the year. These applications ought to be considered as a proof-of-principle and illustrations of the methods described, rather than as ready-to-use risk maps. Altogether, this is a first step towards an integrative method to predict risk of establishment of diseases based on mathematical modelling combined with a geographic information system that may comprise climatic variables, landscape features, land use, and other relevant factors determining the risk of establishment for bluetongue as well as of other emerging vector-borne diseases.
authors.affiliation: Theoretical Epidemiology, Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht, The Netherlands. n.a.hartemink@uu.nl
authors.forename: N A
authors.initials: NA
authors.lastname: Hartemink
authors.forename: B V
authors.initials: BV
authors.lastname: Purse
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Meiswinkel
authors.forename: H E
authors.initials: HE
authors.lastname: Brown
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: de Koeijer
authors.forename: A R W
authors.initials: AR
authors.lastname: Elbers
authors.forename: G-J
authors.initials: GJ
authors.lastname: Boender
authors.forename: D J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Rogers
authors.forename: J A P
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Heesterbeek
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001819:Bluetongue / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D001820:Bluetongue virus / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology*; D002417:Cattle; D002418:Cattle Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology; D002519:Ceratopogonidae / Q000821:virology*; D017753:Ecosystem; D005583:Fourier Analysis; D040362:Geographic Information Systems; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000821:virology*; D008377:Maps as Topic; D009426:Netherlands / Q000453:epidemiology; D012307:Risk Factors; D012621:Seasons; D012756:Sheep