title: A neighborhood susceptibility index for planning of local physical interventions in response to pandemic influenza outbreaks.
abstract: The global spread of a novel A (H1N1) influenza virus in 2009 has highlighted the possibility of a devastating pandemic similar to the 'Spanish flu' of 1917-1918. Responding to such pandemics requires careful planning for the early phases where there is no availability of pandemic vaccine. We set out to compute a Neighborhood Influenza Susceptibility Index (NISI) describing the vulnerability of local communities of different geo-socio-physical structure to a pandemic influenza outbreak. We used a spatially explicit geo-physical model of Linköping municipality (pop. 136,240) in Sweden, and employed an ontology-modeling tool to define simulation models and transmission settings. We found considerable differences in NISI between neighborhoods corresponding to primary care areas with regard to early progress of the outbreak, as well as in terms of the total accumulated share of infected residents counted after the outbreak. The NISI can be used in local preparations of physical response measures during pandemics.
authors.affiliation: Department of Medical and Health Sciences, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden;
authors.forename: Toomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Timpka
authors.forename: Henrik
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Eriksson
authors.forename: Magnus
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Strömgren
authors.forename: Olle
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Eriksson
authors.forename: Joakim
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Ekberg
authors.forename: Anders
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Grimvall
authors.forename: James
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Nyce
authors.forename: Elin
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Gursky
authors.forename: Einar
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Holm
mesh_terms: D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D006630:Hispanic or Latino; D006801:Humans; D053118:Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology; D058873:Pandemics; D011320:Primary Health Care