title: Estimating the global public health implications of electricity and coal consumption.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The growing health risks associated with greenhouse gas emissions highlight the need for new energy policies that emphasize efficiency and low-carbon energy intensity.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  We assessed the relationships among electricity use, coal consumption, and health outcomes.
  
  
  METHODS
  Using time-series data sets from 41 countries with varying development trajectories between 1965 and 2005, we developed an autoregressive model of life expectancy (LE) and infant mortality (IM) based on electricity consumption, coal consumption, and previous year's LE or IM. Prediction of health impacts from the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) integrated air pollution emissions health impact model for coal-fired power plants was compared with the time-series model results.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The time-series model predicted that increased electricity consumption was associated with reduced IM for countries that started with relatively high IM (> 100/1,000 live births) and low LE (< 57 years) in 1965, whereas LE was not significantly associated with electricity consumption regardless of IM and LE in 1965. Increasing coal consumption was associated with increased IM and reduced LE after accounting for electricity consumption. These results are consistent with results based on the GAINS model and previously published estimates of disease burdens attributable to energy-related environmental factors, including indoor and outdoor air pollution and water and sanitation.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Increased electricity consumption in countries with IM < 100/1,000 live births does not lead to greater health benefits, whereas coal consumption has significant detrimental health impacts.
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Molecular Toxicology, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA. jgohlke@uab.edu
authors.forename: Julia M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Gohlke
authors.forename: Reuben
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Thomas
authors.forename: Alistair
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Woodward
authors.forename: Diarmid
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Campbell-Lendrum
authors.forename: Annette
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Prüss-Üstün
authors.forename: Simon
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Hales
authors.forename: Christopher J
authors.initials: CJ
authors.lastname: Portier
mesh_terms: D000397:Air Pollution; D003031:Coal / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D011211:Electric Power Supplies / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D017752:Greenhouse Effect; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007226:Infant Mortality; D008017:Life Expectancy; D008954:Models, Biological; D011634:Public Health / Q000639:trends; D018570:Risk Assessment
chemical_list: D003031:Coal