title: Using geographic information system-based ecologic niche models to forecast the risk of hantavirus infection in Shandong Province, China.
abstract: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is an important public health problem in Shandong Province, China. In this study, we combined ecologic niche modeling with geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing techniques to identify the risk factors and affected areas of hantavirus infections in rodent hosts. Land cover and elevation were found to be closely associated with the presence of hantavirus-infected rodent hosts. The averaged area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.864, implying good performance. The predicted risk maps based on the model were validated both by the hantavirus-infected rodents' distribution and HFRS human case localities with a good fit. These findings have the applications for targeting control and prevention efforts.
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, People's Republic of China. weilanisme@gmail.com
authors.forename: Lan
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Wei
authors.forename: Quan
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Qian
authors.forename: Zhi-Qiang
authors.initials: ZQ
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Gregory E
authors.initials: GE
authors.lastname: Glass
authors.forename: Shao-Xia
authors.initials: SX
authors.lastname: Song
authors.forename: Wen-Yi
authors.initials: WY
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.forename: Xiu-Jun
authors.initials: XJ
authors.lastname: Li
authors.forename: Hong
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.forename: Xian-Jun
authors.initials: XJ
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Li-Qun
authors.initials: LQ
authors.lastname: Fang
authors.forename: Wu-Chun
authors.initials: WC
authors.lastname: Cao
mesh_terms: D000220:Adaptation, Biological; D000818:Animals; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D004197:Disease Reservoirs / Q000662:veterinary; D017753:Ecosystem; D006476:Orthohantavirus / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D006480:Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D012307:Risk Factors; D012377:Rodentia / Q000821:virology*