title: A score proposal to evaluate surgical risk in patients submitted to myocardial revascularization surgery.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Scores to predict surgical risk in patients submitted to myocardial revascularization surgery are broadly used.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To develop a score capable to predict mortality in patients submitted to myocardial revascularization surgery.
  
  
  METHODS
  From January 1996 to December 2007, data were collected from 2809 patients submitted to myocardial revascularization surgery at PUC-RS São Lucas Hospital. In 2/3 of the sample (n = 1875), the score was developed, after uni and mutivariated analyses. In the remaining 1/3 (n = 934) the score was validated. The final score was developed with the total sample, using the same variables (n = 2809). The accuracy of the model was tested using the area under the ROC curve.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The mean age was 61.3 ± 10.1 years and 34% were women. The risk factors identified as independent predictors of surgical mortality and used for score development (parentheses) were: age > 60 years (2), female (2), extracardiac vasculopathy (2), heart failure functional class III and IV (3), ejection fraction<45% (2), atrial fibrillation (2), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (3), aortic stenosis (3), creatinine 1.5-2.4 (2), creatinine > 2.5 or dialysis (4), emergency/urgency surgery (16). The area obtained under the ROC curve was 0.86 (CI 0.81-0.9).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The score developed, using clinical variables easy to obtain (age, sex, extracardiac vasculopathy, functional class, ejection fraction, atrial fibrillation, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, aortic stenosis, creatinine and emergency/urgency surgery) showed capability to predict mortality in patients submitted to myocardial revascularization surgery in our Hospital.
authors.affiliation: Unidade de Tratamento Intensivo Cardiovascular, Pós-Operatório de Cirurgia Cardíaca, Hospital São Lucas da PUC-RS, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. michel_cadore@hotmail.com
authors.forename: Michel Pereira
authors.initials: MP
authors.lastname: Cadore
authors.forename: João Carlos Vieira da Costa
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Guaragna
authors.forename: Justino Fermin Amonte
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Anacker
authors.forename: Luciano Cabral
authors.initials: LC
authors.lastname: Albuquerque
authors.forename: Luiz Carlos
authors.initials: LC
authors.lastname: Bodanese
authors.forename: Jacqueline da Costa Escobar
authors.initials: Jda C
authors.lastname: Piccoli
authors.forename: João Batista
authors.initials: JB
authors.lastname: Petraco
authors.forename: Marco Antônio
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Goldani
mesh_terms: D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008954:Models, Biological; D009204:Myocardial Revascularization / Q000401:mortality*; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D012307:Risk Factors