title: A model for the A(H1N1) epidemic in Mexico, including social isolation.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  We present a model for the 2009 influenza epidemic in Mexico to describe the observed pattern of the epidemic from March through the end of August (before the onset of the expected winter epidemic) in terms of the reproduction number and social isolation measures.
  
  
  METHODS
  The model uses a system of ordinary differential equations. Computer simulations are performed to optimize trajectories as a function of parameters.
  
  
  RESULTS
  We report on the theoretical consequences of social isolation using published estimates of the basic reproduction number. The comparison with actual data provides a reasonable good fit.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The pattern of the epidemic outbreak in Mexico is characterized by two peaks resulting from the application of very drastic social isolation measures and other prophylactic measures that lasted for about two weeks. Our model is capable of reproducing the observed pattern.
authors.affiliation: Programa de Matemáticas Aplicadas y Computación, Instituto Mexicano del Petróleo, México, DF, México. jx.velasco@gmail.com
authors.forename: Jorge X
authors.initials: JX
authors.lastname: Velasco-Hernández
authors.forename: Maria Conceicao A
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: Leite
mesh_terms: D003198:Computer Simulation; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D004198:Disease Susceptibility; D006801:Humans; D007113:Immunity, Innate; D053118:Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000821:virology; D008800:Mexico / Q000453:epidemiology; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D010356:Patient Isolation / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence; D011790:Quarantine / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence; D012621:Seasons; D013997:Time Factors; D014195:Travel