title: Prioritization of delayed vaccination for pandemic influenza.
abstract: Limited production capacity and delays in vaccine development are major obstacles to vaccination programs that are designed to mitigate a pandemic influenza. In order to evaluate and compare the impact of various vaccination strategies during a pandemic influenza, we developed an age/risk-structured model of influenza transmission, and parameterized it with epidemiological data from the 2009 H1N1 influenza A pandemic. Our model predicts that the impact of vaccination would be considerably diminished by delays in vaccination and staggered vaccine supply. Nonetheless, prioritizing limited H1N1 vaccine to individuals with a high risk of complications, followed by school-age children, and then preschool-age children, would minimize an overall attack rate as well as hospitalizations and deaths. This vaccination scheme would maximize the benefits of vaccination by protecting the high-risk people directly, and generating indirect protection by vaccinating children who are most likely to transmit the disease.
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA 15261, USA. eshim@pitt.edu
authors.forename: Eunha
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Shim
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D006292:Health Priorities; D006801:Humans; D053118:Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype / Q000276:immunology*; D007252:Influenza Vaccines / Q000008:administration & dosage* / Q000276:immunology; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000276:immunology* / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology; D008875:Middle Aged; D018448:Models, Immunological; D015233:Models, Statistical; D058873:Pandemics / Q000517:prevention & control*; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D007252:Influenza Vaccines