title: Estimating the impact of expanded access to antiretroviral therapy on maternal, paternal and double orphans in sub-Saharan Africa, 2009-2020.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  HIV/AIDS has orphaned 11.6 million children in sub-Saharan Africa. Expanded antiretroviral therapy (ART) use may reduce AIDS orphanhood by decreasing adult mortality and population-level HIV transmission.
  
  
  METHODS
  We modeled two scenarios to measure the impact of adult ART use on the incidence of orphanhood in 10 sub-Saharan African countries, from 2009 to 2020. Demographic model data inputs were obtained from cohort studies, UNAIDS, UN Population Division, WHO and the US Census Bureau.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Compared to current rates of ART uptake, universal ART access averted 4.37 million more AIDS orphans by year 2020, including 3.15 million maternal, 1.89 million paternal and 0.75 million double orphans. The number of AIDS orphans averted was highest in South Africa (901.71 thousand) and Nigeria (839.01 thousand), and lowest in Zimbabwe (86.96 thousand) and Côte d'Ivoire (109.12 thousand).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Universal ART use may significantly reduce orphanhood in sub-Saharan Africa.
authors.affiliation: British Columbia Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS, St, Paul's Hospital, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. aanema@cfenet.ubc.ca.
authors.forename: Aranka
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Anema
authors.forename: Christopher G
authors.initials: CG
authors.lastname: Au-Yeung
authors.forename: Michel
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Joffres
authors.forename: Angela
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Kaida
authors.forename: Krisztina
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Vasarhelyi
authors.forename: Steve
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Kanters
authors.forename: Julio Sg
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Montaner
authors.forename: Robert S
authors.initials: RS
authors.lastname: Hogg