title: When may road fatalities start to decrease?
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The comparative analysis of macroscopic trends in road safety has been a popular research topic. The objective of this research is to propose a simple and, at the same time, reliable multiple regime model framework for international road safety comparisons, allowing for the identification of slope changes of personal risk curves and respective breakpoints.
  
  
  METHODS
  The trends of road traffic fatalities in several EU countries have been examined through the temporal evolution of elementary socioeconomic indicators, namely motorized vehicle fleet and population, at the country level.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Piece-wise linear regression models have been fitted, using a methodology that allows the simultaneous estimation of all slopes and breakpoints. The number and location of breakpoints, as well as the slope of the connecting trends, vary among countries, thus indicating different road safety evolution patterns.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Macroscopic analysis of road accident trends may be proved beneficial for the identification of best examples and the implementation of appropriate programmes and measures, which will lead to important benefits for the society and the economy through the reduction of road fatalities and injuries. Best performing countries and the related programmes and measures adopted may concern several safety improvements at the processes of the road, the vehicle and the insurance industries.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Lessons from the analysis of the past road safety patterns of developed countries provide some insight into the underlying process that relates motorization levels with personal risk and can prove to be beneficial for predicting the road safety evolution of developing countries that may have not yet reached the same breakpoints. Furthermore, the presented framework may serve as a basis to build more elaborate models, including more reliable exposure indicators (such as vehicle-km driven).
authors.affiliation: Department of Transportation Planning and Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, 5 Iroon Polytechniou Street, 15773 Zografou, Athens, Greece. geyannis@central.ntua.gr
authors.forename: George
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Yannis
authors.forename: Constantinos
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Antoniou
authors.forename: Eleonora
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Papadimitriou
authors.forename: Dimitris
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Katsochis
mesh_terms: D000063:Accidents, Traffic / Q000401:mortality / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D001336:Automobiles / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005062:European Union; D006801:Humans; D038622:Internationality; D016014:Linear Models; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends; D011634:Public Health / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012449:Safety / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors