title: Predictive risk modelling in health: options for New Zealand and Australia.
abstract: Predictive risk models (PRMs) are case-finding tools that enable health care systems to identify patients at risk of expensive and potentially avoidable events such as emergency hospitalisation. Examples include the PARR (Patients-at-Risk-of-Rehospitalisation) tool and Combined Predictive Model used by the National Health Service in England. When such models are coupled with an appropriate preventive intervention designed to avert the adverse event, they represent a useful strategy for improving the cost-effectiveness of preventive health care. This article reviews the current knowledge about PRMs and explores some of the issues surrounding the potential introduction of a PRM to a public health system. We make a particular case for New Zealand, but also consider issues that are relevant to Australia.
authors.affiliation: University of Auckland, School of Population Health, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Laura E
authors.initials: LE
authors.lastname: Panattoni
authors.forename: Rhema
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Vaithianathan
authors.forename: Toni
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Ashton
authors.forename: Geraint H
authors.initials: GH
authors.lastname: Lewis
mesh_terms: D001315:Australia; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009520:New Zealand; D011322:Primary Prevention / Q000191:economics; D011634:Public Health; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods