title: Twenty-year alcohol-consumption and drinking-problem trajectories of older men and women.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The aim of this study was to describe older adults' 20-year alcohol-consumption and drinking-problem trajectories, identify baseline predictors of them, and determine whether older men and women differ on late-life drinking trajectory characteristics and predictors.
  
  
  METHODS
  Two-group simultaneous latent growth modeling was used to describe the characteristics and baseline predictors of older community-residing men's (n = 399) and women's (n = 320) 20-year drinking trajectories. Chi-square difference tests of increment in fit of latent growth models with and without gender invariance constraints were used to determine gender differences in drinking trajectory characteristics and predictors.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Unconditional quadratic growth models best described older individuals' within-individual, 20-year drinking trajectories, with alcohol consumption following an average pattern of delayed decline, and drinking problems an average pattern of decline followed by leveling off. On average, older men declined in alcohol consumption somewhat later than did older women. The best baseline predictors of more rapid decline in alcohol consumption and drinking problems were drinking variables indicative of heavier, more problematic alcohol use at late middle age.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The course of alcohol consumption and drinking problems from late middle age onward is one of net decline, but this decline is neither swift nor invariable. Gender differences in the timing of decline in drinking suggest that ongoing monitoring of alcohol consumption may be especially important for older men. Further research is needed to identify factors known at late middle age that prospectively explain long-term change in late-life use of alcohol.
authors.affiliation: Center for Health Care Evaluation, Veterans Affairs Palo Alto Health Care System, and Stanford University Medical Center, 795 Willow Road, Menlo Park, CA 94025, USA. penny.brennan@va.gov
authors.forename: Penny L
authors.initials: PL
authors.lastname: Brennan
authors.forename: Kathleen K
authors.initials: KK
authors.lastname: Schutte
authors.forename: Bernice S
authors.initials: BS
authors.lastname: Moos
authors.forename: Rudolf H
authors.initials: RH
authors.lastname: Moos
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000428:Alcohol Drinking / Q000523:psychology* / Q000639:trends*; D000437:Alcoholism / Q000378:metabolism / Q000523:psychology*; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006306:Health Surveys; D006801:Humans; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011569:Psychiatric Status Rating Scales; D012307:Risk Factors; D012309:Risk-Taking; D012737:Sex Factors; D012931:Social Environment; D013997:Time Factors