title: Climate change risks for African agriculture.
abstract: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment of major risks for African agriculture and food security caused by climate change during coming decades is confirmed by a review of more recent climate change impact assessments (14 quantitative, six qualitative). Projected impacts relative to current production levels range from -100% to +168% in econometric, from -84% to +62% in process-based, and from -57% to +30% in statistical assessments. Despite large uncertainty, there are several robust conclusions from published literature for policy makers and research agendas: agriculture everywhere in Africa runs some risk to be negatively affected by climate change; existing cropping systems and infrastructure will have to change to meet future demand. With respect to growing population and the threat of negative climate change impacts, science will now have to show if and how agricultural production in Africa can be significantly improved.
authors.affiliation: Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. christoph.mueller@pik-potsdam.de
authors.forename: Christoph
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Müller
authors.forename: Wolfgang
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Cramer
authors.forename: William L
authors.initials: WL
authors.lastname: Hare
authors.forename: Hermann
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Lotze-Campen
mesh_terms: D000349:Africa; D000383:Agriculture / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D057231:Climate Change; D017752:Greenhouse Effect; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical