title: [Malignancy predictive factors in pancreatic intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) is a premalignant lesion of the pancreas. Its natural history is not well known. We evaluated the characteristics and predictor factors of malignancy of IPMN.
  
  
  METHODS
  A retrospective analysis was performed in 88 patients diagnosed with IPMN between January 1997 and December 2008. The diagnosis was done by abdominal computed tomography (CT), pancreatic-magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and/or endoscopic ultrasound (EUS). Gender, age, symptoms, origin, location, CA 19.9 serum levels, size of tumours and nodules by imaging techniques, type of surgery, malignancy and survival were evaluated. Nine pre-surgical variables were selected, and univariate and multivariate analysis to identify independent prognostic factors of malignancy were performed.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The mean age was 64 years and 53% were men. 39% of tumours were incidental. 50% had their origin on the main pancreatic duct, 37% on collateral branchs and 13% were multifocal. 68% patients were operated: 42% had malignant neoplasms (32% carcinoma in situ and 68% invasive). Twelve patients died (1 benign, 1 in situ and 10 invasive). Univariate and multivariate analysis identified the symptoms and the tumour size (≥ 22 mm [median of our serie] and ≥ 30 mm [size accepted in literature]) as independent predictor factors of malignancy.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Many IPMN are incidental findings. The presence of symptoms and size of the tumour are independent prognostic factors of malignancy and they should be considered to decide therapeutic actions.
authors.affiliation: Servicio de Gastroenterología, Institut de Malalties Digestives i Metabòliques, IDIBAPS, CIBERehd, Barcelona, Spain.
authors.forename: Ana Celia
authors.initials: AC
authors.lastname: Adet Caldelari
authors.forename: Rosa
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Miquel
authors.forename: Josep Antoni
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Bombi
authors.forename: Angels
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Ginés
authors.forename: Gloria
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Fernández-Esparrach
authors.forename: Juan Ramón
authors.initials: JR
authors.lastname: Ayuso
authors.forename: Joan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Maurel
authors.forename: Faust
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Feu
authors.forename: Antoni
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Castells
authors.forename: Laureano
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Fernández-Cruz
authors.forename: Salvador
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Navarro
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D002278:Carcinoma in Situ / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000401:mortality / Q000473:pathology; D021441:Carcinoma, Pancreatic Ductal / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000401:mortality / Q000473:pathology* / Q000601:surgery; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D033162:Incidental Findings; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D009361:Neoplasm Invasiveness; D010180:Pancreatectomy; D010190:Pancreatic Neoplasms / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000401:mortality / Q000473:pathology* / Q000601:surgery; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D016019:Survival Analysis