title: Planning for the control of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in Los Angeles County and the United States.
abstract: Mathematical and computer models can provide guidance to public health officials by projecting the course of an epidemic and evaluating control measures. The authors built upon an existing collaboration between an academic research group and the Los Angeles County, California, Department of Public Health to plan for and respond to the first and subsequent years of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) circulation. The use of models allowed the authors to 1) project the timing and magnitude of the epidemic in Los Angeles County and the continental United States; 2) predict the effect of the influenza mass vaccination campaign that began in October 2009 on the spread of pandemic H1N1 in Los Angeles County and the continental United States; and 3) predict that a third wave of pandemic influenza in the winter or spring of 2010 was unlikely to occur. The close collaboration between modelers and public health officials during pandemic H1N1 spread in the fall of 2009 helped Los Angeles County officials develop a measured and appropriate response to the unfolding pandemic and establish reasonable goals for mitigation of pandemic H1N1.
authors.affiliation: Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, USA.
authors.forename: Dennis L
authors.initials: DL
authors.lastname: Chao
authors.forename: Laura
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Matrajt
authors.forename: Nicole E
authors.initials: NE
authors.lastname: Basta
authors.forename: Jonathan D
authors.initials: JD
authors.lastname: Sugimoto
authors.forename: Brandon
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Dean
authors.forename: Dee Ann
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Bagwell
authors.forename: Brit
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Oiulfstad
authors.forename: M Elizabeth
authors.initials: ME
authors.lastname: Halloran
authors.forename: Ira M
authors.initials: IM
authors.lastname: Longini
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D002648:Child; D006285:Health Planning; D006801:Humans; D053118:Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype; D007252:Influenza Vaccines / Q000600:supply & distribution / Q000627:therapeutic use; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000517:prevention & control*; D015141:Los Angeles / Q000453:epidemiology; D032541:Mass Vaccination / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D015233:Models, Statistical; D058873:Pandemics / Q000517:prevention & control*; D013269:Stochastic Processes; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology
chemical_list: D007252:Influenza Vaccines