title: The impact of weather conditions on Culex pipiens and Culex restuans (Diptera: Culicidae) abundance: a case study in Peel Region.
abstract: Mosquito populations are sensitive to long-term variations in climate and short-term variations in weather. Mosquito abundance is a key determinant of outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases, such as West Nile virus (WNV). In this work, the short-term impact of weather conditions (temperature and precipitation) on Culex pipiens L.-Culex restuans Theobald mosquito abundance in Peel Region, Ontario, Canada, was investigated using the 2002-2009 mosquito data collected from the WNV surveillance program managed by Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care and a gamma-generalized linear model. There was a clear association between weather conditions (temperature and precipitation) and mosquito abundance, which allowed the definition of threshold criteria for temperature and precipitation conditions for mosquito population growth. A predictive statistical model for mosquito population based on weather conditions was calibrated using real weather and mosquito surveillance data, and validated using a subset of surveillance data. Results showed that WNV vector abundance on any one day could be predicted with reasonable accuracy from relationships with mean degree-days >9 degrees C over the 11 preceding days, and precipitation 35 d previously. This finding provides optimism for the development of weather-generated forecasting for WNV risk that could be used in decision support systems for interventions such as mosquito control.
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems/Centre for Disease Modelling (LAMPS/CDM), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada.
authors.forename: Jiafeng
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Nick H
authors.initials: NH
authors.lastname: Ogden
authors.forename: Huaiping
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Zhu
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D003465:Culex / Q000502:physiology*; D008954:Models, Biological; D009864:Ontario; D011156:Population Density; D013997:Time Factors; D014887:Weather