title: Predictors of placement for children who initially remained in their homes after an investigation for abuse or neglect.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To examine the frequency and predictors of out-of-home placement in a 30-month follow-up for a nationally representative sample of children investigated for a report of maltreatment who remained in their homes following the index child welfare report.
  
  
  METHODS
  Data came from the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-being (NSCAW), a 3-year longitudinal study of 5,501 youth 0-14 years old referred to child welfare agencies for potential maltreatment between 10/1999 and 12/2000. These analyses focused on the children who had not been placed out-of-home at the baseline interview and examined child, family and case characteristics as predictors of subsequent out-of-home placement. Weighted logistic regression models were used to determine which baseline characteristics were related to out-of-home placement in the follow-up.
  
  
  RESULTS
  For the total study sample, predictors of placement in the 30-month follow-up period included elevated Conflict Tactics Scale scores, prior history of child welfare involvement, high family risk scores and caseworkers' assessment of likelihood of re-report without receipt of services. Higher family income was protective. For children without any prior child welfare history (incident cases), younger children, low family income and a high family risk score were strongly related to subsequent placement but receipt of services and case workers' assessments were not.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Family risk variables are strongly related to out-of-home placement in a 30-month follow-up, but receipt of child welfare services is not related to further placements. Considering family risk factors and income, 25% of the children who lived in poor families, with high family risk scores, were subsequently placed out-of-home, even among children in families who received child welfare services. Given that relevant evidence-based interventions are available for these families, more widespread tests of their use should be explored to understand whether their use could make a substantial difference in the lives of vulnerable children.
authors.affiliation: Department of Pediatrics and Stanford Health Policy, 117 Encina Commons, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
authors.forename: Sarah McCue
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Horwitz
authors.forename: Michael S
authors.initials: MS
authors.lastname: Hurlburt
authors.forename: Steven D
authors.initials: SD
authors.lastname: Cohen
authors.forename: Jinjin
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Landsverk
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D017028:Caregivers / Q000523:psychology; D002648:Child; D002649:Child Abuse; D002669:Child Welfare; D002675:Child, Preschool; D005260:Female; D005581:Foster Home Care; D006801:Humans; D007182:Income; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D007407:Interviews as Topic; D016015:Logistic Models; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D010287:Parent-Child Relations; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D012947:Social Work / Q000379:methods*; D014481:United States