title: Predicted incidence of oral cavity, oropharyngeal, laryngeal, and hypopharyngeal cancer in Spain and implications for cancer control.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Head and neck cancers are the sixth most common cancers in men, accounting for approximately 6% of all incident cancers. The highest incidence rates for oral cavity and oropharyngeal cancers were registered in Pakistan, India, France, Slovakia and Brazil. This paper presents predictions of incidence rates of the most common cancers in the head and neck in Spain.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  This paper presents predictions of incidence rates of the most common cancers in the head and neck regions for the period 2003-2017, grouped in periods of five years (2003-2007, 2008-2012, 2013-2017), based on incidence data from five Population-Based Cancer Registries in Spain.
  
  
  METHODS
  Cancer registries published in Cancer Incidence in Five Continents vols. VII-IX with a minimum of 15 years of continuous data were selected. The selected topographies were: oral cavity, oropharynx, larynx and hypopharynx. Predictions were made using the Nordpred program, utilizing the age-period-cohort model.
  
  
  RESULTS
  For the period between 2013 and 2017, 4542 cases of head and neck cancers were predicted for men and 810 for women, with a proportion of 5.6 men to one woman. Cancers of the oral cavity, larynx and hypopharynx in men presented an increasing number of cases due to demographic changes, but the risk will be reduced by 2% for oral cavity cancer, 28% for laryngeal cancer, 3% for hypopharyngeal cancer and 4% for grouped locations. Oropharyngeal cancer in men has a predicted increase of 47% due to risk. Predictions for the female gender suggest an increment in all locations, with an increased risk of 24% for the oral cavity, 37% for the larynx, and 67% for grouped locations.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Predictions show a reduction in gender difference in the incidence of head and neck cancers. There was a reduction in incidence rates for men and an increase for women, evidencing changes in exposure to tobacco and alcohol.
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Microbiología, Medicina Preventiva y Salud Pública, Universidad de Zaragoza, Spain.
authors.forename: Dyego Leandro Bezerra
authors.initials: DL
authors.lastname: de Souza
authors.forename: María Milagros Bxernal
authors.initials: MM
authors.lastname: Pérez
authors.forename: Maria Paula
authors.initials: MP
authors.lastname: Curado
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007012:Hypopharyngeal Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology*; D015994:Incidence; D007822:Laryngeal Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009062:Mouth Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology*; D009959:Oropharyngeal Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology*; D013030:Spain / Q000453:epidemiology; D055815:Young Adult