title: [Dental manpower prediction in Israel for 2017].
abstract: A recent study published by the authors indicated that according to the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics in 2008, Israel had 5800 active dentists, a figure well below the publication by the Ministry of Health. Based on this figure, using the manpower to population ratio method, the following results were obtained: The predicted number of dentist in 2017 would be 6090, based on, the estimated number of Israel: graduates, the estimated number of dentists who would arrive in Israel as immigrants or Israelis who studied abroad, based on an attrition rate of 3% and on the assumption that the number of dentists leaving the country is negligible. Table 2, based on manpower to population ratio, indicates that by 2017, Israel would have 1 dentist per 1400 population, a ratio which is still far above what many countries present, but high for Israel. This might reflect a dramatic change, from employment in public clinics, back to private practices. The results clearly indicate that a shortage of dentists is predicted in the near future and a major brainstorming is urgently required to evaluate these results.
authors.affiliation: Dept. of Community Dentistry, The Hebrew University, Hadassah Faculty of Dental Medicine, Jerusalem.
authors.forename: Y
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Vered
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Zini
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Mann
mesh_terms: D003813:Dentistry / Q000639:trends; D003815:Dentists / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D054242:Emigrants and Immigrants / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005544:Forecasting; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends; D006801:Humans; D007557:Israel; D000078329:Workforce