title: Predicting 30-day mortality of aortic valve replacement by the AVR score.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The objective of this study is to develop a simple risk score to predict 30-day mortality of aortic valve replacement (AVR).
  
  
  METHODS
  In a development set of 673 consecutive patients who underwent AVR between 1990 and 1993, four independent predictors for 30-day mortality were identified: body mass index (BMI) ≥30, BMI <20, previous coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and recent myocardial infarction. Based on these predictors, a 30-day mortality risk score-the AVR score-was developed. The AVR score was validated on a validation set of 673 consecutive patients who underwent AVR almost two decennia later in the same hospital.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Thirty-day mortality in the development set was ≤2% in the absence of any predictor (class I, low risk), 2-5% in the solitary presence of BMI ≥30 (class II, mild risk), 5-15% in the solitary presence of previous CABG or recent myocardial infarction (class III, moderate risk), and >15% in the solitary presence of BMI <20, or any combination of BMI ≥30, previous CABG or recent myocardial infarction (class IV, high risk). The AVR score correctly predicted 30-day mortality in the validation set: observed 30-day mortality in the validation set was 2.3% in 487 class I patients, 4.4% in 137 class II patients, 13.3% in 30 class III patients and 15.8% in 19 class IV patients.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The AVR score is a simple risk score validated to predict 30-day mortality of AVR.
authors.affiliation: Department of Cardiology, St. Antonius Hospital, P.O. Box 2500, 3435 CM, Nieuwegein, the Netherlands, b.swinkels@antoniusziekenhuis.nl.
authors.forename: B M
authors.initials: BM
authors.lastname: Swinkels
authors.forename: F E E
authors.initials: FE
authors.lastname: Vermeulen
authors.forename: J C
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Kelder
authors.forename: W J
authors.initials: WJ
authors.lastname: van Boven
authors.forename: H W M
authors.initials: HW
authors.lastname: Plokker
authors.forename: J M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Ten Berg