title: Assessing the relationship between global warming and mortality: lag effects of temperature fluctuations by age and mortality categories.
abstract: Although interests in assessing the relationship between temperature and mortality have arisen due to climate change, relatively few data are available on lag structure of temperature-mortality relationship, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. This study identified the lag effects of mean temperature on mortality among age groups and death categories using polynomial distributed lag models in Brisbane, Australia, a subtropical city, 1996-2004. For a 1 °C increase above the threshold, the highest percent increase in mortality on the current day occurred among people over 85 years (7.2% (95% CI: 4.3%, 10.2%)). The effect estimates among cardiovascular deaths were higher than those among all-cause mortality. For a 1 °C decrease below the threshold, the percent increases in mortality at 21 lag days were 3.9% (95% CI: 1.9%, 6.0%) and 3.4% (95% CI: 0.9%, 6.0%) for people aged over 85 years and with cardiovascular diseases, respectively. These findings may have implications for developing intervention strategies to reduce and prevent temperature-related mortality.
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Kelvin Grove, QLD 4050, Brisbane, Australia. weiwei.yu@qut.edu.au
authors.forename: Weiwei
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Yu
authors.forename: Kerrie
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Mengersen
authors.forename: Wenbiao
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Hu
authors.forename: Yuming
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Guo
authors.forename: Xiaochuan
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Pan
authors.forename: Shilu
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Tong
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000032:analysis; D001315:Australia; D003080:Cold Temperature; D005260:Female; D057232:Global Warming; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality; D012621:Seasons; D013696:Temperature
chemical_list: D000393:Air Pollutants