title: Is everyday causation deterministic or probabilistic?
abstract: One view of causation is deterministic: A causes B means that whenever A occurs, B occurs. An alternative view is that causation is probabilistic: the assertion means that given A, the probability of B is greater than some criterion, such as the probability of B given not-A. Evidence about the induction of causal relations cannot readily decide between these alternative accounts, and so we examined how people refute causal assertions. In four experiments most participants judged that a single counterexample of A and not-B refuted assertions of the form, A causes B. And, as a deterministic theory based on mental models predicted, participants were more likely to request multiple refutations for assertions of the form, A enables B. Similarly, refutations of the form not-A and B were more frequent for enabling than causal assertions. Causation in daily life seems to be a deterministic concept.
authors.affiliation: University of Reading, Department of Psychology, Reading, RG6 6AL, UK. c.frosch@qub.ac.uk
authors.forename: Caren A
authors.initials: CA
authors.lastname: Frosch
authors.forename: P N
authors.initials: PN
authors.lastname: Johnson-Laird
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D019359:Knowledge; D008297:Male; D008960:Models, Psychological; D011336:Probability; D011582:Psychological Theory