title: Explaining the high number of infected people by dengue in Rio de Janeiro in 2008 using a susceptible-infective-recovered model.
abstract: An epidemiological model for dengue propagation using cellular automata is constructed. Dependence on temperature and rainfall index are taken into account. Numerical results fit pretty well with the registered cases of dengue for the city of Rio de Janeiro for the period from 2006 to 2008. In particular, our approach explains very well an abnormally high number of cases registered in 2008. A phase transition from endemic to epidemic regimes is discussed.
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Física, UNESP-Universidade Estadual Paulista, Av. 24A, 1515, 13506-900, Rio Claro, SP, Brazil.
authors.forename: Tiago
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Botari
authors.forename: S G
authors.initials: SG
authors.lastname: Alves
authors.forename: Edson D
authors.initials: ED
authors.lastname: Leonel
mesh_terms: D001938:Brazil / Q000453:epidemiology; D003715:Dengue / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000503:physiopathology / Q000635:transmission*; D004198:Disease Susceptibility; D019353:Endemic Diseases; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011891:Rain; D020127:Recovery of Function; D013696:Temperature