title: Are prodromes preictal events? A prospective PDA-based study.
abstract: Up to 29% of patients with epilepsy report "prodromal" sensations more than 30 minutes prior to seizures. We developed and implemented an objective methodology to prospectively assess the sensitivity and specificity of these subjective experiences using personal digital assistants (PDAs). The key property, in contrast to paper-based diaries, is the internal recording of the patient's entering time of prodromes and seizures. Of 500 patients with epilepsy interviewed, 31 claimed to sense prodromal symptoms at least 30 minutes before seizure onset. Eleven of them agreed to participate in a 4-week study to objectively measure their prospective prediction performance. In 9 patients returning data, the majority of prodrome entries were not followed by seizures or were identified only retrospectively. Statistical analysis revealed that no patient could outperform a nonspecific random predictor when predicting seizures based on the occurrence of prodromes, and that the group performance matched precisely the expected result for a by-chance prediction. These results question the predictive value of "prodromes" and the specificity of their occurrence in the preictal period.
authors.affiliation: Freiburg Center for Data Analysis and Modeling, Freiburg University, Freiburg, Germany.
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Maiwald
authors.forename: Julie
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Blumberg
authors.forename: Jens
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Timmer
authors.forename: Andreas
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Schulze-Bonhage
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D015982:Bias; D034201:Computers, Handheld / Q000600:supply & distribution; D005260:Female; D005858:Germany; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012640:Seizures / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000503:physiopathology*; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D055815:Young Adult