title: Projecting future drug expenditures: 2011.
abstract: PURPOSE. Drug expenditure trends in 2009 and 2010, projected drug expenditures for 2011, and factors likely to influence drug expenditures are discussed. SUMMARY. Various factors are likely to influence drug expenditures in 2011, including drugs in development, the diffusion of new drugs, generic drugs, health care reform, and biosimilars. Two distinct patterns of drug expenditures continue to exist. The dominant trend over the past several years is substantial moderation in expenditure growth for widely used drugs, primarily due to the ongoing introduction of generic medications for high-cost, frequently used medications and the influence of the economic downturn. The second pattern is substantial increases in expenditures for specialized medications, particularly in the outpatient setting. The influence of health care reform, the economy, and the emergence of biosimilars will be important trends to follow over the next several years, but they are unlikely to have substantial impact on drug expenditures in 2011. From 2008 to 2009, total U.S. drug expenditures increased by 5.2%, with total spending rising from $284.8 billion to $299.5 billion. Growth in drug expenditures in clinics grew by 5.1% from 2008 to 2009. Hospital drug expenditures increased at the moderate rate of 2.8% from 2008 to 2009; through the first nine months of 2010, hospital drug expenditures increased by only 0.8% compared with the same period in 2009. CONCLUSION. For 2011, we project a 3-5% increase in drug expenditures in outpatient settings, a 4-6% increase in expenditures for clinic-administered drugs, and a 1-3% increase in hospital drug expenditures.
authors.affiliation: Department of Pharmacy Practice, School of Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences.
authors.forename: Fred
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Doloresco
authors.forename: Cory
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Fominaya
authors.forename: Glen T
authors.initials: GT
authors.lastname: Schumock
authors.forename: Lee C
authors.initials: LC
authors.lastname: Vermeulen
authors.forename: Linda
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Matusiak
authors.forename: Robert J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Hunkler
authors.forename: Nilay D
authors.initials: ND
authors.lastname: Shah
authors.forename: James M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Hoffman
mesh_terms: D017277:Drug Approval; D016527:Drug Costs / Q000639:trends*; D005252:Fees, Pharmaceutical / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D004364:Pharmaceutical Preparations / Q000145:classification / Q000191:economics*; D014481:United States
chemical_list: D004364:Pharmaceutical Preparations