title: Dynamic risk assessment in sexual offenders using STABLE-2000 and the STABLE-2007: an investigation of predictive and incremental validity.
abstract: The predictive accuracy of STABLE-2000 and STABLE-2007 was examined within a prospective research design in a German-speaking sample of 263 adult male prison-released sexual offenders followed up for an average of 6.4 years. The STABLE-2007 was significantly related to all outcomes (AUC = 0.67-0.71), whereas the STABLE-2000 demonstrated only weak predictive accuracy for sexual reoffense (AUC = 0.62). Supporting the results of the construction sample, the STABLE-2007 incrementally added to the predictive accuracy of the STATIC-99 for violent and general reoffense (conviction and incarceration). Moreover, the STABLE-2007 total scores and the nominal risk/need categories made significant incremental contributions over the SORAG for predicting sexual reoffense.
authors.affiliation: Federal Evaluation Centre for Violent and Sexual Offenders, Gerichtsgasse 6, Vienna, Austria. reinhard.eher@justiz.gv.at
authors.forename: Reinhard
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Eher
authors.forename: Anna
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Matthes
authors.forename: Frank
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Schilling
authors.forename: Tanja
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Haubner-Maclean
authors.forename: Martin
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Rettenberger
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001317:Austria; D002648:Child; D002650:Child Abuse, Sexual / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D057237:Criminals / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D011594:Psychometrics; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012107:Research Design; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012742:Sex Offenses / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires