title: Age, gender and disability predict future disability in older people: the Rotterdam Study.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  To develop a prediction model that predicts disability in community-dwelling older people. Insight in the predictors of disability is needed to target preventive strategies for people at increased risk.
  
  
  METHODS
  Data were obtained from the Rotterdam Study, including subjects of 55 years and over. Subjects who had complete data for sociodemographic factors, life style variables, health conditions, disability status at baseline and complete data for disability at follow-up were included in the analysis. Disability was expressed as a Disability Index (DI) measured with the Health Assessment Questionnaire.We used a multivariable polytomous logistic regression to derive a basic prediction model and an extended prediction model. Finally we developed readily applicable score charts for the calculation of outcome probabilities.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Of the 5027 subjects included, 49% had no disability, 18% had mild disability, 16% had severe disability and 18% had deceased at follow-up after six years. The strongest predictors were age and prior disability. The contribution of other predictors was relatively small. The discriminative ability of the basic model was high; the extended model did not enhance predictive ability.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  As prior disability status predicts future disability status, interventive strategies should be aimed at preventing disability in the first place.
authors.affiliation: Department of General Practice, Erasmus MC - University Medical Centre Rotterdam, P.O. Box 2040, 3000 CA Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
authors.forename: Umit
authors.initials: U
authors.lastname: Taş
authors.forename: Ewout W
authors.initials: EW
authors.lastname: Steyerberg
authors.forename: Sita M A
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Bierma-Zeinstra
authors.forename: Albert
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Hofman
authors.forename: Bart W
authors.initials: BW
authors.lastname: Koes
authors.forename: Arianne P
authors.initials: AP
authors.lastname: Verhagen
mesh_terms: D000203:Activities of Daily Living / Q000523:psychology*; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000375:Aging / Q000473:pathology* / Q000523:psychology*; D015331:Cohort Studies; D006233:Persons with Disabilities / Q000523:psychology* / Q000534:rehabilitation; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D005544:Forecasting; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009426:Netherlands / Q000453:epidemiology; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D012737:Sex Factors