title: Modeling the future effects of a menthol ban on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in the United States.
abstract: We used a validated smoking simulation model and data from the 2003 Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey to project the impact that a US menthol ban would have on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. In a scenario in which 30% of menthol smokers quit and 30% of those who would have initiated as menthol smokers do not initiate, by 2050 the relative reduction in smoking prevalence would be 9.7% overall and 24.8% for Blacks; deaths averted would be 633,252 overall and 237,317 for Blacks.
authors.affiliation: Department of Economics, University of Baltimore, Baltimore, MD, USA. Dlevy@ubalt.edu
authors.forename: David T
authors.initials: DT
authors.lastname: Levy
authors.forename: Jennifer L
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: Pearson
authors.forename: Andrea C
authors.initials: AC
authors.lastname: Villanti
authors.forename: Kenneth
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Blackman
authors.forename: Donna M
authors.initials: DM
authors.lastname: Vallone
authors.forename: Raymond S
authors.initials: RS
authors.lastname: Niaura
authors.forename: David B
authors.initials: DB
authors.lastname: Abrams
mesh_terms: D044383:Black People / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D008610:Menthol; D015233:Models, Statistical; D015995:Prevalence; D012907:Smoking / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence* / Q000401:mortality; D016540:Smoking Cessation / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology; D001741:Black or African American
chemical_list: D008610:Menthol