title: Survival function and protein malnutrition in burns patients at a rural hospital in Africa.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The aim of this study was to estimate the incidence of acute malnutrition and to identify predictors of case fatality among burn patients in the poorest South African province, Eastern Cape.
  
  
  METHODS
  This longitudinal follow-up study was conducted among consecutive burn patients admitted to Nelson Mandela Academic Hospital, Mthatha, South Africa, between 2006 and 2008. Patients were monitored and treated daily from admission to discharge. Outcomes were acute protein malnutrition and mortality. Patients' demography, total body surface area (TBSA) of the burn, cause of the burn, weight, height, location of the burn, hemoglobin, serum albumin, wound infection, and antibiotics after culture and sensitivity results were the potential predictors of in-hospital mortality. A Cox's proportional hazards model for the time to death was then used to identify independent predictors of mortality after adjusting for confounding factors. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were generated for each arm of exposure status.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In all, 67 patients (35 males, 59 children) were studied. The mean (range) age was 8±12 years (1 month to 59 years). The cumulative incidence of acute malnutrition was 62.0% (n=42): 46.3% (n=31) at admission and 15.7% (n=11) after 7 days of hospitalization. Incidence of mortality was 16.4% (n=11 with in-hospital acute malnutrition). The only significant and independent predictors of mortality were total body surface area (TBSA) burn>40% [hazard ratio (HR) 10.5, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.7-63; P<0.01] and affected anterior trunk (HR 4.4, 95% CI 1.3-14.7; P=0.018).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Urgent prevention strategies of burns and evidence-based practice with early nutritional supplementation are needed to reduce high rates of malnutrition and mortality.
authors.affiliation: Department of Surgery, Walter Sisulu University, Mthatha, Eastern Cape, South Africa.
authors.forename: H J
authors.initials: HJ
authors.lastname: Kingu
authors.forename: Benjamin
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Longo-Mbenza
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Dhaffala
authors.forename: E L
authors.initials: EL
authors.lastname: Mazwai
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D002056:Burns / Q000150:complications*; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006780:Hospitals, Rural; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011502:Protein-Energy Malnutrition / Q000209:etiology* / Q000401:mortality*; D013019:South Africa; D015996:Survival Rate; D055815:Young Adult