title: Climate change and future temperature-related mortality in 15 Canadian cities.
abstract: The environmental changes caused by climate change represent a significant challenge to human societies. One part of this challenge will be greater heat-related mortality. Populations in the northern hemisphere will experience temperature increases exceeding the global average, but whether this will increase or decrease total temperature-related mortality burdens is debated. Here, we use distributed lag modeling to characterize temperature-mortality relationships in 15 Canadian cities. Further, we examine historical trends in temperature variation across Canada. We then develop city-specific general linear models to estimate change in high- and low-temperature-related mortality using dynamically downscaled climate projections for four future periods centred on 2040, 2060 and 2080. We find that the minimum mortality temperature is frequently located at approximately the 75th percentile of the city's temperature distribution, and that Canadians currently experience greater and longer lasting risk from cold-related than heat-related mortality. Additionally, we find no evidence that temperature variation is increasing in Canada. However, the projected increased temperatures are sufficient to change the relative levels of heat- and cold-related mortality in some cities. While most temperature-related mortality will continue to be cold-related, our models predict that higher temperatures will increase the burden of annual temperature-related mortality in Hamilton, London, Montreal and Regina, but result in slight to moderate decreases in the burden of mortality in the other 11 cities investigated.
authors: Population Studies Division, Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, HECSB, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada.
authors: Sara Lauretta
authors: SL
authors: Martin
authors: Sabit
authors: S
authors: Cakmak
authors: Christopher Alan
authors: CA
authors: Hebbern
authors: Mary-Luyza
authors: ML
authors: Avramescu
authors: Neil
authors: N
authors: Tremblay
references: Int J Health Geogr. 2008 May 22;7:23
references: 18498630
references: Arch Environ Occup Health. 2007 Winter;62(4):169-76
references: 18458019
references: Environ Health Perspect. 2003 Nov;111(14):1712-8
references: 14594620
references: Int J Biometeorol. 2003 Sep;48(1):37-44
references: 12750971
references: Soc Sci Med. 1998 Feb;46(3):331-44
references: 9460815
references: BMJ. 2000 Sep 16;321(7262):670-3
references: 10987770
references: Int J Biometeorol. 2009 Jan;53(1):31-51
references: 19052780
references: Eur Respir J. 2009 Feb;33(2):245-51
references: 18799511
references: Am J Epidemiol. 1993 Feb 1;137(3):331-41
references: 8452141
references: Int J Biometeorol. 2006 Nov;51(2):145-53
references: 16847688
references: Environ Health Perspect. 2001 May;109(5):463-70
references: 11401757
references: Lancet. 1997 May 10;349(9062):1341-6
references: 9149695
references: Epidemiology. 2011 Jan;22(1):68-73
references: 21150355
references: Am J Epidemiol. 2006 Jul 1;164(1):77-84
references: 16624968
references: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2004 Aug 24;101(34):12422-7
references: 15314227
references: Environ Res. 2003 Jan;91(1):1-7
references: 12550082
references: Environ Res. 2003 May;92(1):8-13
references: 12706750
references: Environ Res. 2010 Aug;110(6):604-11
references: 20519131
references: Nature. 2009 Apr 30;458(7242):1104-5
references: 19407776
references: South Med J. 2004 Nov;97(11):1093-9
references: 15586600
references: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2008 Feb 12;105(6):1786-93
references: 18258748
references: Nature. 2008 Apr 3;452(7187):531-2
references: 18385715
references: Environ Health Perspect. 2002 Sep;110(9):859-63
references: 12204818
references: Lancet. 2006 Mar 11;367(9513):859-69
references: 16530580
references: Epidemiology. 2009 Jul;20(4):575-83
references: 19295435
references: Epidemiology. 2000 May;11(3):320-6
references: 10784251
references: N Engl J Med. 2005 Oct 6;353(14):1433-6
references: 16207843
references: J Epidemiol Community Health. 2003 Oct;57(10):784-9
references: 14573581
references: Annu Rev Public Health. 2008;29:41-55
references: 18031221
references: Age Ageing. 1978 Nov;7(4):210-24
references: 727071
references: Nature. 2004 Jan 22;427(6972):332-6
references: 14716318
references: Epidemiology. 2001 Nov;12(6):662-7
references: 11679794
references: Int J Epidemiol. 1997 Jun;26(3):551-61
references: 9222780
references: Am J Epidemiol. 2002 Jan 1;155(1):80-7
references: 11772788
references: Int J Biometeorol. 2005 Jan;49(3):179-83
references: 15290433
references: Am J Public Health. 2007 Nov;97(11):2028-34
references: 17901433
references: Epidemiol Rev. 2002;24(2):190-202
references: 12762092
references: Epidemiology. 2006 Jan;17(1):75-9
references: 16357598
references: Environ Health Perspect. 1997 Jan;105(1):84-93
references: 9074886
references: Lancet. 2009 May 16;373(9676):1693-733
references: 19447250
references: Science. 2004 Aug 13;305(5686):994-7
references: 15310900
references: Int J Epidemiol. 1993 Feb;22(1):1-8
references: 8449629
references: Nature. 2002 Apr 18;416(6882):723-6
references: 11961551
references: Environ Res. 2010 Aug;110(6):633-8
references: 20576259
references: Int J Circumpolar Health. 2005 Dec;64(5):451-8
references: 16440607
references: Epidemiology. 2006 Nov;17(6):632-8
references: 17003686
references: Occup Environ Med. 2007 Dec;64(12):827-33
references: 17600037
references: C R Biol. 2008 Feb;331(2):171-8
references: 18241810
references: Int J Biometeorol. 2000 Nov;44(4):190-7
references: 11131291
references: Epidemiology. 2006 Nov;17(6):624-31
references: 17028505
references: Int J Biometeorol. 1995 Mar;38(3):141-7
references: 7744529
references: Int J Biometeorol. 2002 Dec;47(1):6-12
references: 12461605