title: Age-period-cohort models in cancer surveillance research: ready for prime time?
abstract: Standard descriptive methods for the analysis of cancer surveillance data include canonical plots based on the lexis diagram, directly age-standardized rates (ASR), estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), and joinpoint regression. The age-period-cohort (APC) model has been used less often. Here, we argue that it merits much broader use. First, we describe close connections between estimable functions of the model parameters and standard quantities such as the ASR, EAPC, and joinpoints. Estimable functions have the added value of being fully adjusted for period and cohort effects, and generally more precise. Second, the APC model provides the descriptive epidemiologist with powerful new tools, including rigorous statistical methods for comparative analyses, and the ability to project the future burden of cancer. We illustrate these principles by using invasive female breast cancer incidence in the United States, but these concepts apply equally well to other cancer sites for incidence or mortality.
authors: Philip S
authors: PS
authors: Rosenberg
authors: William F
authors: WF
authors: Anderson
references: J Epidemiol Biostat. 2000;5(3):177-91
references: 11051114
references: Int J Cancer. 2008 Apr 15;122(8):1859-67
references: 18076067
references: Leukemia. 2001 Oct;15(10):1612-8
references: 11587220
references: Nat Rev Cancer. 2006 Aug;6(8):603-12
references: 16862191
references: Stat Med. 1987 Jun;6(4):449-67
references: 3629047
references: J Natl Cancer Inst. 2008 Dec 17;100(24):1804-14
references: 19066264
references: Biometrics. 2006 Sep;62(3):847-54
references: 16984328
references: Cancer Epidemiol. 2010 Jun;34(3):244-56
references: 20381445
references: Anticancer Res. 1995 Mar-Apr;15(2):511-5
references: 7763032
references: Br J Cancer. 2005 Oct 31;93(9):1077-83
references: 16205695
references: Eur J Cancer. 2001 Oct;37 Suppl 8:S4-66
references: 11602373
references: Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 2009 Aug;18(8):2256-61
references: 19622723
references: Br J Cancer. 1999 Feb;79(3-4):666-72
references: 10027347
references: J Clin Oncol. 2007 May 1;25(13):1683-90
references: 17404367
references: Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 2006 Apr;15(4):652-8
references: 16614105
references: Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 2009 Jun;18(6):1669-71
references: 19505896
references: J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr. 2006;(36):19-25
references: 17032890
references: J Natl Cancer Inst. 1992 Sep 16;84(18):1402-10
references: 1512791
references: Stat Med. 2000 Feb 15;19(3):335-51
references: 10649300
references: Annu Rev Public Health. 1991;12:425-57
references: 2049144
references: Stat Med. 1998 Jun 30;17(12):1305-23
references: 9682322
references: Int J Epidemiol. 1999 Oct;28(5):955-63
references: 10597997
references: CA Cancer J Clin. 2011 Mar-Apr;61(2):69-90
references: 21296855
references: Int J Epidemiol. 2000 Oct;29(5):826-31
references: 11034964
references: Nat Rev Cancer. 2006 Jan;6(1):63-74
references: 16372017
references: Stat Med. 1987 Jun;6(4):469-81
references: 3629048
references: J Natl Cancer Inst. 1996 Jun 5;88(11):727-33
references: 8637026
references: Biometrics. 1983 Jun;39(2):311-24
references: 6626659
references: Ann Oncol. 2006 Dec;17(12):1783-91
references: 16971661
references: Stat Med. 1994 Jan 15;13(1):23-41
references: 9061838
references: Int J Cancer. 2010 Apr 1;126(7):1732-9
references: 19810101
references: J Natl Cancer Inst. 2009 Jul 15;101(14):993-1000
references: 19584327
references: Stat Med. 2007 Jul 10;26(15):3018-45
references: 17177166
references: CA Cancer J Clin. 2010 Sep-Oct;60(5):277-300
references: 20610543
references: Stat Med. 2010 May 20;29(11):1228-38
references: 20209480
references: Biometrics. 1997 Mar;53(1):161-77
references: 9147590
references: BMC Cancer. 2006 Nov 02;6:261
references: 17078893
references: Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 2009 Mar;18(3):792-800
references: 19258470
references: Arch Fam Med. 1999 Nov-Dec;8(6):521-8
references: 10575392
references: Am J Epidemiol. 1996 Jan 1;143(1):85-91
references: 8533751
references: Cancer Causes Control. 2005 Apr;16(3):215-23
references: 15947873
references: Stat Methods Med Res. 2004 Dec;13(6):421-42
references: 15587432
references: J Clin Oncol. 2010 Jan 10;28(2):232-9
references: 19996029
references: Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 2009 Apr;18(4):1092-100
references: 19293311
references: Cancer Causes Control. 2007 Dec;18(10):1187-98
references: 17823850
references: J Natl Cancer Inst. 1999 Jun 16;91(12):1025-32
references: 10379965
references: Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 2010 Sep;19(9):2401-6
references: 20826837
references: J Clin Oncol. 2007 Sep 1;25(25):3808-15
references: 17664460
references: Cancer. 2009 Sep 15;115(18):4176-85
references: 19536874
references: J Natl Cancer Inst. 2011 May 4;103(9):714-36
references: 21454908
references: Stat Med. 1998 Jun 30;17(12):1325-39
references: 9682323
references: Int J Cancer. 2008 Feb 1;122(3):639-42
references: 17764111