title: Predictive value of body mass index at age 18 on adulthood obesity: results of a prospective survey of an urban population.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Overweight children often become obese adults. The main purpose of this study was to define the risk of teenage obesity as a predictor of adulthood obesity in an under-studied and urban population. A secondary aim was to determine whether gender had an effect on the predictive value of teenage obesity. The final goal was to examine the influence of dietary habits on obesity.
  
  
  METHODS
  This cross-sectional survey was conducted using convenience sampling of an urban, primarily African American, community. Demographic questions were supplemented by a dietary history and measurement of body anthropometrics.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Five hundred three subjects were interviewed; 86% were African American, and the mean age was 43 years. Body mass index (BMI) at age 18 was the strongest factor associated with current obesity status in univariate and multivariate analyses. Sixty-nine (13.7%) subjects were overweight at age 18, and 28 (5.6%) were obese. Of the 28 obese teenagers, 22 (78.6%) went on to become obese as adults. Only 2.1% of nonobese adults were obese as teenagers. For women, BMI at age 18 was more predictive of adult BMI than for men. Gain of ≥ 5 BMI units after age 18 was linked to a higher prevalence of diabetes and hypertension. No dietary differences were found between obese and nonobese adults.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The results of this study provide evidence that high BMI at age 18 is strongly correlated with adulthood obesity, much more so with women than men. Eating habits did not have an impact, suggesting that obesity may be the result of a combination of factors yet to be clearly defined.
authors.affiliation: Department of Medicine, Gastroenterology Section, Temple University School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19140, USA.
authors.forename: Frank K
authors.initials: FK
authors.lastname: Friedenberg
authors.forename: Derek M
authors.initials: DM
authors.lastname: Tang
authors.forename: Vishwas
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Vanar
authors.forename: Thais
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Mendonca
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000886:Anthropometry; D001823:Body Composition; D015992:Body Mass Index; D002648:Child; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D003625:Data Collection; D005247:Feeding Behavior; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009765:Obesity / Q000453:epidemiology*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012737:Sex Factors; D014505:Urban Population; D055815:Young Adult