title: The relationship between formative and summative examinations and PANCE scores; can the past predict the future?
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  This paper describes how a systematic analysis of students at risk for failing the Physician Assistant National Certifying Examination (PANCE) may be used to identify which students may benefit from intervention prior to taking the PANCE and thus increase the likelihood of successful completion of the PANCE. The intervention developed and implemented uses various formative and summative examinations to predict students' PANCE scores with a high degree of accuracy.
  
  
  METHODS
  Eight end-of-rotation exams (EOREs) based upon discipline-specific diseases and averaging 100 questions each, a 360-question PANCE simulation (SUMM I), the PACKRAT, and a 700-question summative cognitive examination based upon the NCCPA blueprint (SUMM II) were administered to all students enrolled in the program during the clinical year starting in January 2010 and concluding in December 2010.
  
  
  RESULTS
  When the PACKRAT, SUMM I, SUMM II, and the surgery, women's health, and pediatrics EOREs were combined in a regression model, an Rvalue of 0.87 and an R2 of 0.75 were obtained. A predicted score was generated for the class of 2009. The predicted PANCE score based upon this model had a final correlation of 0.790 with the actual PANCE score.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This pilot study demonstrated that valid predicted scores could be generated from formative and summative examinations to provide valuable feedback and to identify students at risk of failing the PANCE.
authors.affiliation: Massachusetts College of Pharmacy and Health Sciences (MCPHS), Department of Physician Assistant Studies, Manchester Campus, USA. scott.massey@mcphs.edu
authors.forename: Scott
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Massey
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Stallman
authors.forename: Louise
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: Kathy
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Klingaman
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Holmerud
mesh_terms: D002568:Certification / Q000592:standards*; D004521:Educational Measurement; D005544:Forecasting / Q000379:methods; D006801:Humans; D010823:Physician Assistants / Q000193:education* / Q000592:standards; D010865:Pilot Projects; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012307:Risk Factors; D013336:Students, Health Occupations