title: Estimating the risk of developing type 2 diabetes: a comparison of several risk scores: the Cohorte Lausannoise study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To compare in the Swiss population the results of several scores estimating the risk of developing type 2 diabetes.
  
  
  METHODS
  This was a single-center, cross-sectional study conducted between 2003 and 2006 in Lausanne, Switzerland. Overall, 3,251 women and 2,937 men, aged 35-75 years, were assessed, of which 5,760 (93%) were free from diabetes and included in the current study. The risk of developing type 2 diabetes was assessed using seven different risk scores, including clinical data with or without biological data. Participants were considered to be eligible for primary prevention according to the thresholds provided for each score. The results were then extrapolated to the Swiss population of the same sex and age.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The risk of developing type 2 diabetes increased with age in all scores. The prevalence of participants at high risk ranged between 1.6 and 24.9% in men and between 1.1 and 15.7% in women. Extrapolated to the Swiss population of similar age, the overall number of participants at risk, and thus susceptible to intervention, ranged between 46,708 and 636,841. In addition, scores that included the same clinical variables led to a significantly different prevalence of participants at risk (4.2% [95% CI 3.4-5.0] vs. 12.8% [11.5-14.1] in men and 2.9% [2.4-3.6] vs. 6.0% [5.2-6.9] in women). CONCLUSIONS; The prevalence of participants at risk for developing type 2 diabetes varies considerably according to the scoring system used. To adequately prevent type 2 diabetes, risk-scoring systems must be validated for each population considered.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois, Lausanne, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Rémy
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Schmid
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Vollenweider
authors.forename: Gérard
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Waeber
authors.forename: Pedro
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Marques-Vidal
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001827:Body Height; D001835:Body Weight; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000097:blood / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000378:metabolism; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008019:Life Style; D008055:Lipids / Q000097:blood; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D012307:Risk Factors; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D013557:Switzerland
chemical_list: D008055:Lipids