title: Implications of rural-urban migration for conservation of the Atlantic Forest and urban growth in Misiones, Argentina (1970-2030).
abstract: Global trends of increasing rural-urban migration and population urbanization could provide opportunities for nature conservation, particularly in regions where deforestation is driven by subsistence agriculture. We analyzed the role of rural population as a driver of deforestation and its contribution to urban population growth from 1970 to the present in the Atlantic Forest of Argentina, a global conservation priority. We created future land-use-cover scenarios based on human demographic parameters and the relationship between rural population and land-cover change between 1970 and 2006. In 2006, native forest covered 50% of the province, but by 2030 all scenarios predicted a decrease that ranged from 18 to 39% forest cover. Between 1970 and 2001, rural migrants represented 20% of urban population growth and are expected to represent less than 10% by 2030. This modeling approach shows how rural-urban migration and land-use planning can favor nature conservation with little impact on urban areas.
authors.affiliation: CONICET, Instituto de Ecologia Regional, Universidad Nacional de Tucuman, Argentina. aeizquierdo@gmail.com
authors.forename: Andrea E
authors.initials: AE
authors.lastname: Izquierdo
authors.forename: Héctor R
authors.initials: HR
authors.lastname: Grau
authors.forename: T Mitchell
authors.initials: TM
authors.lastname: Aide
mesh_terms: D001118:Argentina; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D014197:Trees