title: The use of Lagrangian trajectories for the identification of the environmentally safe fairways.
abstract: We propose and test a method for the optimisation of marine fairways to minimise the risk to high-value areas, based on statistical analysis of Lagrangian trajectories of current-driven pollution transport. The offshore areas are quantified according to the probability of pollution released in these areas to reach vulnerable regions. The method contains an eddy-resolving circulation model, a scheme for tracking of Lagrangian trajectories, a technique for the calculation of quantities characterising the potential of different sea areas to supply adverse impacts, and routines to construct the optimum fairway. The gain is expressed in terms of the probability of pollution transport to the nearshore and the associated time (particle age). The use of the optimum fairway would decrease the probability of coastal pollution by 40% or increase the average time of reaching the pollution to the coast from 5.3 to about 9 days in the Gulf of Finland, the Baltic Sea.
authors.affiliation: Centre for Non-linear Studies, Institute of Cybernetics at Tallinn University of Technology, Akadeemia tee 21, 12618 Tallinn, Estonia. soomere@cs.ioc.ee
authors.forename: Tarmo
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Soomere
authors.forename: Oleg
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Andrejev
authors.forename: Kai
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Myrberg
authors.forename: Alexander
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Sokolov
mesh_terms: D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D005387:Finland; D008956:Models, Chemical; D009792:Oceans and Seas; D014872:Water Movements; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical / Q000032:analysis* / Q000737:chemistry; D014877:Water Pollution, Chemical / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*
chemical_list: D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical