title: An individual-based simulation of pneumonic plague transmission following an outbreak and the significance of intervention compliance.
abstract: The existence of primary pneumonic plague outbreaks raises concerns over the use of the causative bacteria as an aerosol-based bioweapon. We employed an individual-based model, parameterised using published personal contact information, to assess the severity of a deliberate release in a discrete community, under the influence of two proposed intervention strategies. We observed that the severity of the resulting epidemic is determined by the degree of personal compliance with said strategies, implying that prior preparedness activities are essential in order that public awareness and willingness to seek treatment is achieved quickly.
authors.affiliation: Microbial Risk Assessment, Emergency Response Department, Health Protection Agency, Porton Down, Salisbury, Wiltshire, UK.
authors.forename: Andrew D C
authors.initials: AD
authors.lastname: Williams
authors.forename: Ian M
authors.initials: IM
authors.lastname: Hall
authors.forename: G James
authors.initials: GJ
authors.lastname: Rubin
authors.forename: Richard
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Amlôt
authors.forename: Steve
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Leach
mesh_terms: D019072:Antibiotic Prophylaxis; D023482:Bioterrorism; D003140:Communicable Disease Control / Q000379:methods*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004189:Disaster Planning; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control*; D018450:Disease Progression; D015438:Health Behavior; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D010349:Patient Compliance; D010930:Plague / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000635:transmission*; D012111:Residence Characteristics; D015010:Yersinia pestis