title: Evaluation of multiple variables predicting the likelihood of passage and failure of PANCE.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  A significant positive correlation between the Physician Assistant National Certifying Examination (PANCE) and the PAEA Physician Assistant Clinical Knowledge Rating and Assessment Tool (PACKRAT) has been found in previous studies. This study's goal was to improve prediction of PANCE failure using other predictive measures, alone and in combination, with the PACKRAT.
  
  
  METHODS
  Correlation and discriminate and regression analyses were conducted on 3 years of data (2007-2009) collected from Chatham University PA Studies graduates, with convergent results.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Significant positive correlations between the PANCE and each of the assessment measures were found (in order of significance): (1) the PACKRAT exam; (2) a summative multiple choice question exam given near the end of the clinical (second) year; (3) average multiple-choice-question-exam results from the didactic (first) year; (4) prerequisite preadmission GPA; and (5) overall preadmission GPA. Discriminant analyses revealed the combined solution of PACKRAT, SUMM, and MCQ to most accurately differentiate between the "pass" versus "fail" groups on the PANCE. Most importantly, regression analyses revealed the combined solution of SUMM and MCQ to most accurately predict PANCE performance at the low end of the scale.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This research suggests that all assessment measures tested can provide helpful estimates of PANCE performance; however the combined SUMM and MCQ solution provided the most reliable and accurate prediction of PANCE performance for "high risk" students. Other physician assistant programs could develop analyses of their internal testing assessments to identify students at risk of PANCE failure and allocate institutional and program resources to improve rates of PANCE passage.
authors.affiliation: Chatham University, Woodland Road, Pittsburgh, PA 15232, USA. cennulat@chatham.edu
authors.forename: Carol W
authors.initials: CW
authors.lastname: Ennulat
authors.forename: Carl
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Garrubba
authors.forename: Deborah
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: DeLong
mesh_terms: D002568:Certification / Q000592:standards*; D004521:Educational Measurement / Q000379:methods / Q000592:standards*; D005544:Forecasting / Q000379:methods; D006801:Humans; D010823:Physician Assistants / Q000193:education* / Q000592:standards*; D012044:Regression Analysis; D015203:Reproducibility of Results