title: Trends and projections of hepatitis C virus epidemiology in Latin America.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The purpose of the present investigation is to provide an analysis of previous works on the epidemiology of the hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection from six countries throughout Latin America, to forecast the future HCV prevalence trends in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Puerto Rico, and to outline deficiencies in available data, highlighting the need for further research.
  
  
  METHODS
  Data references were identified through indexed journals and non-indexed sources. Overall, 1080 articles were reviewed and 150 were selected based on their relevance to this work. When multiple data sources were available for a key assumption, a systematic process using multi-objective decision analysis (MODA) was used to select the most appropriate sources. When data were missing, analogues were used. Data from other countries with similar risk factors and/or population compositions were used as a proxy to help predict the future trends in prevalence.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The review indicates that the dominant genotype is type 1. HCV prevalence in the analysed countries ranges from 1 to 2.3%. The Latin American countries have been very proactive in screening their blood supplies, thus minimizing the risk of transmission through transfusion. This suggests that other risk factors are set to play a major role in continued new infections. The number of diagnosed and treated patients is low, thereby increasing the burden of complications such as liver cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma. The HCV prevalence, according to our modelling is steady or increasing and the number of infected individuals will increase.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The results herein reported should provide a foundation for informed planning efforts to tackle hepatitis.
authors.affiliation: Department of Experimental Medicine, School of Medicine, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Hospital General de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico.
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Kershenobich
authors.forename: Homie A
authors.initials: HA
authors.lastname: Razavi
authors.forename: Juan Francisco
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Sánchez-Avila
authors.forename: Fernando
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Bessone
authors.forename: Henrique S
authors.initials: HS
authors.lastname: Coelho
authors.forename: Lucy
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Dagher
authors.forename: Fernando L
authors.initials: FL
authors.lastname: Gonçales
authors.forename: Jorge F
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Quiroz
authors.forename: Federico
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Rodriguez-Perez
authors.forename: Barbara
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Rosado
authors.forename: Carolyn
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Wallace
authors.forename: Francesco
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Negro
authors.forename: Marcelo
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Silva
mesh_terms: D058872:Epidemics; D005544:Forecasting; D005838:Genotype; D016174:Hepacivirus / Q000235:genetics; D006526:Hepatitis C / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000628:therapy / Q000635:transmission; D006801:Humans; D007843:Latin America / Q000453:epidemiology; D015995:Prevalence; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D013997:Time Factors