title: Meta-analysis and systematic review of the long-term predictive value of assessment of coronary atherosclerosis by contrast-enhanced coronary computed tomography angiography.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the predictive value of findings of coronary computed tomography angiography for incident cardiovascular events.
  
  
  BACKGROUND
  Initial studies indicate a prognostic value of the technique; however, the level of evidence as well as exact independent risk estimates remain unclear.
  
  
  METHODS
  We searched PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library through January 2010 for studies that followed up ≥ 100 subjects for ≥ 1 year and reported at ≥ 1 hazard ratio (HR) of interest. Risk estimates for the presence of significant coronary stenosis (primary endpoint; ≥ 50% diameter stenosis), left main coronary artery stenosis, each coronary stenosis, 3-vessel disease, any plaque, per coronary segment containing plaque, and noncalcified plaque were derived in random effect regression analysis, and causes of heterogeneity were determined in meta-regression analysis.
  
  
  RESULTS
  We identified 11 eligible articles including 7,335 participants (age 59.1 ± 2.6 years, 62.8% male) with suspected coronary artery disease. The presence of ≥ 1 significant coronary stenosis (9 studies, 3,670 participants, and 252 outcome events [6.8%] with 62% revascularizations) was associated with an annualized event rate of 11.9% (6.4% in studies excluding revascularization). The corresponding HR was 10.74 (98% confidence interval [CI]: 6.37 to 18.11) and 6.15 (95% CI: 3.22 to 11.74) in studies excluding revascularization. Adjustment for coronary calcification did not attenuate the prognostic significance (p = 0.79). The estimated HRs for left main stenosis, presence of plaque, and each coronary segment containing plaque were 6.64 (95% CI: 2.6 to 17.3), 4.51 (95% CI: 2.2 to 9.3), and 1.23 (95% CI: 1.17 to 1.29), respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Presence and extent of coronary artery disease on coronary computed tomography angiography are strong, independent predictors of cardiovascular events despite heterogeneity in endpoints, categorization of computed tomography findings, and study population.
authors.affiliation: Department of Clinical Radiology, Ludwig-Maximilians University, Klinikum Grosshadern, Munich, Germany. fbamberg@post.harvard.edu
authors.forename: Fabian
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Bamberg
authors.forename: Wieland H
authors.initials: WH
authors.lastname: Sommer
authors.forename: Verena
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Hoffmann
authors.forename: Stephan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Achenbach
authors.forename: Konstantin
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Nikolaou
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Conen
authors.forename: Maximilian F
authors.initials: MF
authors.lastname: Reiser
authors.forename: Udo
authors.initials: U
authors.lastname: Hoffmann
authors.forename: Christoph R
authors.initials: CR
authors.lastname: Becker
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D003287:Contrast Media; D017023:Coronary Angiography / Q000379:methods*; D003324:Coronary Artery Disease / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging* / Q000401:mortality / Q000628:therapy; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011856:Radiographic Image Enhancement; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D015996:Survival Rate; D014057:Tomography, X-Ray Computed / Q000379:methods*
chemical_list: D003287:Contrast Media