title: Validation of the Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 Risk Score in the TrialNet Natural History Study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  We assessed the accuracy of the Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 Risk Score (DPTRS), developed from the Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1), in the TrialNet Natural History Study (TNNHS).
  
  
  METHODS
  Prediction accuracy of the DPTRS was assessed with receiver-operating characteristic curve areas. The type 1 diabetes cumulative incidence within the DPTRS intervals was compared between the TNNHS and DPT-1 cohorts.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Receiver-operating characteristic curve areas for the DPTRS were substantial in the TNNHS (P < 0.001 at both 2 and 3 years). The type 1 diabetes cumulative incidence did not differ significantly between the TNNHS and DPT-1 cohorts within DPTRS intervals. In the TNNHS, 2-year and 3-year risks were low for DPTRS intervals <6.50 (<0.10 and <0.20, respectively). Thresholds ≥7.50 were indicative of high risk in both cohorts (2-year risks: 0.49 in the TNNHS and 0.51 in DPT-1).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The DPTRS is an accurate and robust predictor of type 1 diabetes in autoantibody-positive populations.
authors.affiliation: University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA. jsosenko@med.miami.edu
authors.forename: Jay M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Sosenko
authors.forename: Jay S
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Skyler
authors.forename: Jeffrey
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Mahon
authors.forename: Jeffrey P
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Krischer
authors.forename: Craig A
authors.initials: CA
authors.lastname: Beam
authors.forename: David C
authors.initials: DC
authors.lastname: Boulware
authors.forename: Carla J
authors.initials: CJ
authors.lastname: Greenbaum
authors.forename: Lisa E
authors.initials: LE
authors.lastname: Rafkin
authors.forename: Catherine
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Cowie
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Cuthbertson
authors.forename: Jerry P
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Palmer
mesh_terms: D001323:Autoantibodies / Q000276:immunology; D003922:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1 / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000276:immunology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D006801:Humans; D012307:Risk Factors
chemical_list: D001323:Autoantibodies