title: Ageing with HIV in South Africa.
abstract: We used an established microsimulation model, quantified to a rural South African setting with a well developed antiretroviral treatment programme, to predict the impact of antiretroviral therapy on the HIV epidemic in the population aged over 50 years. We show that the HIV prevalence in patients aged over 50 years will nearly double in the next 30 years, whereas the fraction of HIV-infected patients aged over 50 years will triple in the same period. This ageing epidemic has important consequences for the South African healthcare system, as older HIV patients require specialized care.
authors.affiliation: aDepartment of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, The Netherlands. j.hontelez@erasmusmc.nl
authors.forename: Jan A C
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Hontelez
authors.forename: Mark N
authors.initials: MN
authors.lastname: Lurie
authors.forename: Marie-Louise
authors.initials: ML
authors.lastname: Newell
authors.forename: Roel
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Bakker
authors.forename: Frank
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Tanser
authors.forename: Till
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Bärnighausen
authors.forename: Rob
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Baltussen
authors.forename: Sake J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: de Vlas
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D019380:Anti-HIV Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use; D003695:Delivery of Health Care / Q000639:trends; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011157:Population Dynamics; D015995:Prevalence; D012307:Risk Factors; D012309:Risk-Taking; D012423:Rural Health / Q000639:trends*; D012424:Rural Population; D013019:South Africa / Q000453:epidemiology
chemical_list: D019380:Anti-HIV Agents