title: Quantitative analysis of the risk of spread of equine influenza associated with movements of vaccinated horses from infected areas during the Australian outbreak.
abstract: Simulation models were developed to quantify the likelihood of equine influenza virus infection entering pre-movement isolation, persisting through pre- and post-movement isolation periods without being detected by scheduled laboratory testing, and escaping to infect susceptible horses at a destination. The mean probability of escape ranged from 1 in 1,200,000 to 1 in 600,000 depending on lot size. For 95% of iterations the probability of escape was less than 1 in 200,000, regardless of lot size. For a large group of 600 horses processed as multiple separate lots, the mean probability of escape ranged from 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 56,000 depending on lot size. As a result of this analysis, a modified protocol, with two tests during pre-movement isolation and an additional test during post-movement isolation at the Chief Veterinary Officer's discretion, was implemented.
authors.affiliation: NSW Department of Primary Industries, Orange, New South Wales, Australia. evan@ausvet.com.au
authors.forename: E S G
authors.initials: ES
authors.lastname: Sergeant
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Stone
authors.forename: B J
authors.initials: BJ
authors.lastname: Moloney
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Arthur
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001315:Australia; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000662:veterinary*; D006734:Horse Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology*; D006736:Horses; D053123:Influenza A Virus, H3N8 Subtype / Q000254:growth & development*; D008954:Models, Biological; D009976:Orthomyxoviridae Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission / Q000662:veterinary* / Q000821:virology; D011790:Quarantine / Q000662:veterinary; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D014611:Vaccination / Q000662:veterinary*