title: Prediction of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus based on a twenty-year follow-up of the Ventimiglia heart study.
abstract: A novel algorithm to predict incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (iT2DM) is presented considering data from a 20-year prospective study in a Southern Italy population. Eight hundred and fifty-eight out of 1,351 subjects (24-85 years range of age) were selected. Incident type 2 diabetes was diagnosed in 103 patients in a 20-year follow-up. The Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) and the Framingham Offspring Study simple clinical model (FOS) have been used as reference algorithms. Two custom algorithms have been created using Cox parametric hazard models followed by PROBIT analyses: the first one (VHSRISK) includes all the study subjects and the second one (VHS95RISK) evaluates separately subjects with baseline fasting blood glucose (FBG) above/below 5.2 mmol/L (95 mg/dL). The 44 iT2DM cases below 5.2 mmol/L of baseline FBG were predicted by high LDL cholesterol, metabolic syndrome (ATPIII criteria), BMI > 30 kg/m(2), and high factor VII activity. The 59 cases above the FBG threshold were predicted by FBG classes, hypertension, and age. ROC areas for iT2DM prediction were: FINDRISC = 0.759, FOS = 0.762, VHSRISK = 0.789, and VHS95RISK = 0.803. In a Mediterranean population, the use of a custom generated algorithm evaluating separately low/high FBG subjects improves the prediction of iT2DM in subjects classified at lower risk by common estimation algorithms.
authors.affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine and Medical Specialties (DIMIS), University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy.
authors.forename: Davide
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Noto
authors.forename: Angelo Baldassare
authors.initials: AB
authors.lastname: Cefalù
authors.forename: Carlo Maria
authors.initials: CM
authors.lastname: Barbagallo
authors.forename: Angelo
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Falletta
authors.forename: Antonina
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Ganci
authors.forename: Michelangelo
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Sapienza
authors.forename: Giovanni
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Cavera
authors.forename: Isabella
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Nardi
authors.forename: Michele
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Pagano
authors.forename: Alberto
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Notarbartolo
authors.forename: Maurizio R
authors.initials: MR
authors.lastname: Averna
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001786:Blood Glucose / Q000032:analysis; D015992:Body Mass Index; D008078:Cholesterol, LDL / Q000097:blood; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000097:blood / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005215:Fasting / Q000097:blood; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D007558:Italy / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D011446:Prospective Studies; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D001786:Blood Glucose; D008078:Cholesterol, LDL