title: Predictors of unfavourable repeat biopsy results in men participating in a prospective active surveillance program.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Active surveillance (AS) protocols for low-risk prostate cancer (PCa) generally include repeat prostate biopsies at predefined follow-up intervals.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To study the outcome of routinely obtained 1-yr repeat biopsies and factors predicting reclassification to higher risk, to contribute to risk stratification for men on AS.
  
  
  METHODS
  We analysed men with low-risk PCa (clinical stage ≤ T2, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) ≤ 10 ng/ml, PSA density <0.2 ng/ml per millilitre, one or two positive biopsy cores, and Gleason score ≤ 6) who had been included in a prospective AS protocol.
  
  
  METHODS
  PSA was measured 3-monthly and the first volume-dependent repeat biopsy was scheduled 1 yr after diagnosis, independent of PSA doubling time (PSA-DT). Reclassification to higher risk disease on repeat biopsy was defined as Gleason score ≥ 7 or ≥ 3 positive cores.
  
  
  METHODS
  We analysed whether baseline patient characteristics and PSA-DT were associated with reclassification to more aggressive PCa on repeat biopsy.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  A first repeat biopsy was taken in 757 patients after median follow-up of 1.03 yr. The results of repeat biopsies were favourable (no or low-risk PCa) in 594 patients (78.5%) and led to reclassification of risk in 163 (21.5%). Analysis showed that reclassification to higher risk was significantly influenced by the number of initial positive cores (two vs one) (odds ratio [OR]: 1.8; p=0.002) and higher PSA density (OR: 2.1; p=0.003). The outcome was not significantly influenced by age, clinical stage, total number of biopsy cores, or PSA. Adding PSA-DT at time of repeat biopsy to the model showed PSA-DT <3 yr to be significantly associated with reclassification to higher risk (OR: 1.7; p=0.015). Data on tumour involvement per biopsy core were not available.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Clinical features at baseline and during follow-up in our AS cohort are significantly associated with short-term reclassification to higher risk on repeat biopsy. These characteristics can potentially be used for risk stratification of men with PCa who are apparently at favourable risk.
authors.affiliation: Department of Urology, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, The Netherlands. m.bul@erasmusmc.nl
authors.forename: Meelan
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Bul
authors.forename: Roderick C N
authors.initials: RC
authors.lastname: van den Bergh
authors.forename: Antti
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Rannikko
authors.forename: Riccardo
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Valdagni
authors.forename: Tom
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Pickles
authors.forename: Chris H
authors.initials: CH
authors.lastname: Bangma
authors.forename: Monique J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Roobol
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D001706:Biopsy; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D060787:Neoplasm Grading; D009367:Neoplasm Staging; D011379:Prognosis; D017430:Prostate-Specific Antigen / Q000097:blood; D011471:Prostatic Neoplasms / Q000097:blood / Q000401:mortality* / Q000473:pathology*; D012306:Risk
chemical_list: D017430:Prostate-Specific Antigen