title: Demonstrating freedom from equine influenza in New South Wales, Australia, following the 2007 outbreak.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To quantify the probability of freedom from equine influenza (EI) in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, based on analysis of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing.
  
  
  METHODS
  Testing in the infected areas of NSW during the period 1 January to 30 April 2008.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Data from the random survey were collated and analysed to provide estimates of the probability of detecting EI if it was present at a prevalence ranging from 0.01% to 0.5%. The sensitivity estimates were then combined with a prior estimate of the probability of freedom in a simulation model, to estimate the posterior probability of freedom from EI (given the negative results of the random survey).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The very large volume of PCR tests performed provided a very high level of confidence that EI had been successfully eradicated from NSW.
authors.affiliation: NSW Department of Primary Industries, Orange, NSW, Australia. evan@ausvet.com.au
authors.forename: E S G
authors.initials: ES
authors.lastname: Sergeant
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Wilson
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003625:Data Collection; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000662:veterinary*; D006734:Horse Diseases / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000821:virology*; D006736:Horses; D053123:Influenza A Virus, H3N8 Subtype / Q000235:genetics / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D008954:Models, Biological; D009517:New South Wales / Q000453:epidemiology; D009976:Orthomyxoviridae Infections / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000662:veterinary*; D011159:Population Surveillance / Q000379:methods; D015995:Prevalence; D012367:RNA, Viral / Q000737:chemistry / Q000235:genetics; D020133:Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction / Q000662:veterinary
chemical_list: D012367:RNA, Viral