title: Lung cancer mortality in Spain: estimating the future burden to the year 2028.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To use lung cancer mortality rates from 1979 to 2008 in Andalusia, southern Spain (population >8,000,000), to provide an estimate of the future number of deaths for the period 2009-2028.
  
  
  METHODS
  The numbers of lung cancer deaths from 1979 to 2008 were obtained from the Andalusian Institute for Statistics (AIS). Data were arranged in 5-year age groups using an age-period-cohort model. Age-standardised rates (ASR) per 100, 000 were calculated for males and females. Population projections for Andalusia 2009-2028 were downloaded from the AIS database.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In males, the ASR varied from 46.1 in 2004-2008 to 34.6 in 2024-2028, with a projected 33% decrease. In females, the ASR varied from 4.9 in 2004-2008 to 8.9 per 100,000 in 2024-2028, with a projected 45% increase. This reflects an annual change of -1.3% for males and of +2.7% for females for the period 2009-2028. The sex ratio is projected to drop from a male:female ratio of 11 (1979-1983) to 3.8 (2024-2028).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Our projections emphasise the significance of a continuously increasing trend in female lung cancer mortality, with a drop in the projected sex ratio.
authors: Clinical Record Department, Virgen del Rocío University Hospital, Seville, Spain.
authors: A
authors: A
authors: Cayuela
authors: S
authors: S
authors: Rodríguez-Dominguez
authors: J L
authors: JL
authors: López-Campos
authors: L
authors: L
authors: Jara-Palomares
authors: R
authors: R
authors: Otero
authors: E
authors: E
authors: Vigil
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D016014:Linear Models; D008175:Lung Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D017678:Sex Distribution; D012737:Sex Factors; D013030:Spain / Q000453:epidemiology; D013997:Time Factors