title: Incidence of acute pancreatitis does not increase during Oktoberfest, but is higher than previously described in Germany.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Increased alcohol consumption can lead to acute pancreatitis (AP). We investigated whether the incidence of alcohol-induced AP increased during the Munich Oktoberfest in 2008, at which 6.6 million liters of beer were sold within 16 days.
  
  
  METHODS
  We performed a multicenter, prospective study of 188 patients with AP (36.7% alcohol-induced, 34.6% biliary), treated at 27 hospitals in the greater area of Munich, Germany (2,970,000 inhabitants) during the 2008 Oktoberfest. Data were compared with that from two 18-day control periods.
  
  
  RESULTS
  During the Oktoberfest, the overall incidence of AP was 42.8/100,000 person-years, which is 117% higher than previously reported. The incidence of acute attacks of alcoholic pancreatitis (AAP) did not increase during the Oktoberfest, compared with control periods. AAP was independently associated with repeated episodes of AP (P = .001), high levels of chronic alcohol intake (P = .001), low body-mass index (P = .007), male gender (P = .033), and acute alcohol excess (P = .037). Biliary AP was associated with increased levels of alanine-aminotransferase and aspartate-aminotransferase (P = .003), old age (P = .014), and low levels of chronic alcohol intake (P = .032). Death (5/188 patients) was associated with baseline levels of blood urea nitrogen, receiver operating characteristic-area under the curve (ROC-AUC = 0.918), alkaline phosphatase (ROC-AUC = 0.861), and C-reactive protein (ROC-AUC = 0.855).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The incidence of AP does not increase during the Oktoberfest, compared with other time periods; the incidence of AP in Munich is higher than previously described in Germany. AAP was associated with long-term, heavy alcohol exposure rather than short-term, excessive alcohol drinking. Levels of blood urea nitrogen were associated with mortality.
authors: II. Medizinische Klinik und Poliklinik, Klinikum rechts der Isar der Technischen Universität München, München, Germany. veit.phillip@lrz.tum.de
authors: Veit
authors: V
authors: Phillip
authors: Wolfgang
authors: W
authors: Huber
authors: Frank
authors: F
authors: Hagemes
authors: Sandra
authors: S
authors: Lorenz
authors: Ulrike
authors: U
authors: Matheis
authors: Sigrid
authors: S
authors: Preinfalk
authors: Tibor
authors: T
authors: Schuster
authors: Florian
authors: F
authors: Lippl
authors: Bernd
authors: B
authors: Saugel
authors: Roland M
authors: RM
authors: Schmid
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000428:Alcohol Drinking / Q000009:adverse effects*; D005260:Female; D005858:Germany / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D019283:Pancreatitis, Acute Necrotizing / Q000139:chemically induced / Q000453:epidemiology*; D011446:Prospective Studies