title: Predictive value of the additive and logistic EuroSCOREs in patients undergoing aortic valve replacement.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The purpose of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the additive and logistic EuroSCOREs in predicting the operative mortality in patients undergoing aortic valve replacement (AVR) with or without coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery.
  
  
  METHODS
  This was a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data.
  
  
  METHODS
  This was a single-center study performed in an educational hospital.
  
  
  METHODS
  All patients (n = 1,885) who underwent AVR with (n = 813) or without (n = 1,072) CABG surgery between 1998 and 2007.
  
  
  METHODS
  AVR with or without CABG surgery.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Variable life-adjusted display curves were constructed to compare the observed operative mortality with the additive and logistic EuroSCOREs. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was used to determine the discriminatory power of the additive and logistic EuroSCOREs. Calibration between the predicted and the observed operative mortality was checked by comparing the predicted probability of the mortality with the additive and logistic EuroSCORE. In the isolated AVR group, the additive EuroSCORE was 5.8% predicted mortality and the logistic EuroSCORE was 7.2%, whereas the observed operative mortality was 3.2%. In the AVR with CABG surgery group, the additive EuroSCORE was 7.2% and the logistic EuroSCORE was 8.8%, whereas the observed operative mortality was 5.3%. ROC curve analyses showed a high discriminatory power for both EuroSCOREs in both patient groups.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Although the additive and the logistic EuroSCOREs had good discriminatory power, they were not able to predict the actual operative mortality accurately. Both EuroSCOREs overestimated the operative mortality, especially in low-risk patients.
authors: Department of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery, Catharina Hospital, Eindhoven, The Netherlands.
authors: Bart M J A
authors: BM
authors: Koene
authors: Albert H M
authors: AH
authors: van Straten
authors: Mohamed A
authors: MA
authors: Soliman Hamad
authors: Eric
authors: E
authors: Berreklouw
authors: Joost F
authors: JF
authors: Ter Woorst
authors: M Erwin
authors: ME
authors: Tan
authors: André J
authors: AJ
authors: van Zundert
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D001021:Aortic Valve / Q000601:surgery*; D019540:Area Under Curve; D006348:Cardiac Surgical Procedures / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000401:mortality; D016001:Confidence Intervals; D001026:Coronary Artery Bypass; D005112:Extracorporeal Circulation; D005260:Female; D006350:Heart Valve Prosthesis; D019918:Heart Valve Prosthesis Implantation / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000401:mortality; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D019057:Quality-Adjusted Life Years; D012372:ROC Curve; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012307:Risk Factors; D018401:Sample Size; D056346:Sternotomy