title: Differences in health between Americans and Western Europeans: Effects on longevity and public finance.
abstract: In 1975, 50-year-old Americans could expect to live slightly longer than most of their Western European counterparts. By 2005, American life expectancy had fallen behind that of most Western European countries. We find that this growing longevity gap is primarily due to real declines in the health of near-elderly Americans, relative to their Western European peers. We use a microsimulation approach to project what US longevity would look like, if US health trends approximated those in Western Europe. The model implies that differences in health can explain most of the growing gap in remaining life expectancy. In addition, we quantify the public finance consequences of this deterioration in health. The model predicts that gradually moving American cohorts to the health status enjoyed by Western Europeans could save up to $1.1 trillion in discounted total health expenditures from 2004 to 2050.
authors: Université du Québec à Montréal, Canada. michaud.pierre_carl@uqam.ca
authors: Pierre-Carl
authors: PC
authors: Michaud
authors: Dana
authors: D
authors: Goldman
authors: Darius
authors: D
authors: Lakdawalla
authors: Adam
authors: A
authors: Gailey
authors: Yuhui
authors: Y
authors: Zheng
mesh_terms: D000203:Activities of Daily Living; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D015992:Body Mass Index; D003431:Cross-Cultural Comparison; D006233:Persons with Disabilities / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005060:Europe; D005260:Female; D005102:Health Expenditures / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006291:Health Policy; D054624:Health Status Disparities; D006306:Health Surveys; D006801:Humans; D038622:Internationality; D008017:Life Expectancy; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D018803:Models, Economic; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends; D011634:Public Health / Q000191:economics* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D014481:United States