title: Pattern in escalations in insurgent and terrorist activity.
abstract: In military planning, it is important to be able to estimate not only the number of fatalities but how often attacks that result in fatalities will take place. We uncovered a simple dynamical pattern that may be used to estimate the escalation rate and timing of fatal attacks. The time difference between fatal attacks by insurgent groups within individual provinces in both Afghanistan and Iraq, and by terrorist groups operating worldwide, gives a potent indicator of the later pace of lethal activity.
authors: Department of Physics, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33124, USA.
authors: Neil
authors: N
authors: Johnson
authors: Spencer
authors: S
authors: Carran
authors: Joel
authors: J
authors: Botner
authors: Kyle
authors: K
authors: Fontaine
authors: Nathan
authors: N
authors: Laxague
authors: Philip
authors: P
authors: Nuetzel
authors: Jessica
authors: J
authors: Turnley
authors: Brian
authors: B
authors: Tivnan