title: High plasma level of fibroblast growth factor 21 is an Independent predictor of type 2 diabetes: a 5.4-year population-based prospective study in Chinese subjects.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To investigate whether circulating levels of fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21), which previously has been shown to be elevated in obesity, could predict the development of type 2 diabetes in a 5.4-year, population-based, prospective study.
  
  
  METHODS
  Baseline plasma FGF21 levels were measured using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in 1,900 subjects from the Hong Kong Cardiovascular Risk Factor Prevalence Study (CRISPS). The prospective association of FGF21 with diabetes development over 5.4 years was analyzed using multiple logistic regression.
  
  
  RESULTS
  At baseline, plasma levels of FGF21 increased progressively with worsening dysglycemia from normal glucose tolerance, through prediabetes, to diabetes (global trend, P < 0.001). Of 1,292 subjects without diabetes at baseline, a high baseline FGF21 level was a strong independent predictor for diabetes development (odds ratio 1.792; P < 0.01), together with waist circumference and fasting plasma glucose levels.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Plasma FGF21 levels were significantly increased in subjects with prediabetes and diabetes and predicted the development of diabetes in humans.
authors.affiliation: Department of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
authors.forename: Cheng
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.forename: Bernard M Y
authors.initials: BM
authors.lastname: Cheung
authors.forename: Annette W K
authors.initials: AW
authors.lastname: Tso
authors.forename: Yudong
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Lawrence S C
authors.initials: LS
authors.lastname: Law
authors.forename: Kwok Leung
authors.initials: KL
authors.lastname: Ong
authors.forename: Nelson M S
authors.initials: NM
authors.lastname: Wat
authors.forename: Aimin
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.forename: Karen S L
authors.initials: KS
authors.lastname: Lam
mesh_terms: D044466:Asian People; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000097:blood*; D005346:Fibroblast Growth Factors / Q000097:blood*; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D011446:Prospective Studies
chemical_list: C414620:fibroblast growth factor 21; D005346:Fibroblast Growth Factors