title: Elective liver transplant list mortality: development of a United Kingdom end-stage liver disease score.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Prediction of short-term survival probability is important in the selection and allocation of patients for liver transplantation, and the Mayo End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score has been used in these contexts. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a model for estimation of short-term prognosis of patients selected for elective liver transplantation in the United Kingdom.
  
  
  METHODS
  A modeling dataset was based on 1103 adult patients registered for a first elective liver transplant in the United Kingdom between April 1, 2003, and March 31, 2006, and a validation dataset based on 452 patients registered between April 1, 2006, and March 31, 2007. The final model (United Kingdom End-Stage Liver Disease) included international normalized ratio, serum creatinine, bilirubin, and sodium.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The model, based on the modeling dataset, accurately predicted mortality on the transplant list in the validation dataset and proved to be a better predictor than MELD or MELD-Na. The United Kingdom End-Stage Liver Disease score was not associated with overall posttransplant survival but was associated with both the duration of intensive care unit stay and overall initial hospital stay.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This model, developed specifically for patients awaiting liver transplantation, provides a useful tool for the selection of patients for liver transplantation and the allocation of donor livers.
authors.affiliation: NHS Blood and Transplant, Stoke Gifford, Bristol, United Kingdom. kerri.barber@nhsbt.nhs.uk
authors.forename: Kerri
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Barber
authors.forename: Susanna
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Madden
authors.forename: Joanne
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Allen
authors.forename: Dave
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Collett
authors.forename: James
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Neuberger
authors.forename: Alexander
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Gimson
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001663:Bilirubin / Q000097:blood; D003404:Creatinine / Q000097:blood; D016208:Databases, Factual; D058625:End Stage Liver Disease / Q000097:blood / Q000601:surgery*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D019934:International Normalized Ratio; D016031:Liver Transplantation / Q000401:mortality*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008954:Models, Biological; D015233:Models, Statistical; D018579:Patient Selection; D012307:Risk Factors; D012964:Sodium / Q000097:blood; D016019:Survival Analysis; D006113:United Kingdom / Q000453:epidemiology; D014850:Waiting Lists; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D012964:Sodium; D003404:Creatinine; D001663:Bilirubin