title: Prediction of future marginal bone level: a radiographic study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The aim of the study was to predict the marginal bone level at a 5-year follow-up based on the information available from an initial radiographic examination and to evaluate the precision of the prediction by comparing the predicted bone levels with those actually observed at the follow-up.
  
  
  METHODS
  In 1997, 616 randomly selected dentate individuals underwent a full-mouth radiographic survey. In 2003, 473 of those individuals (77%) participated in a second radiographic examination. Marginal bone level, caries lesions, fillings, crowns, root fillings and periapical status were recorded on all teeth. On the basis of data available from the first examination, a linear mixed model regression analysis with the tooth as the unit of analysis was used to predict the marginal bone level 5 years later.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Number of teeth, smoking, and also presence of apical periodontitis and crowns were associated with bone loss and could be used as predictors of future marginal bone level.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The analysis of all teeth showed that the number of tooth- and person-specific factors at the first examination influenced the prediction of the marginal bone level at the 5-year follow-up examination. However, the performance of the combined prediction model was less satisfactory.
authors.affiliation: Department of Prosthetic Dentistry, Operative Dentistry and Endodontics, Aarhus University, Denmark. gbahrami@odont.au.dk
authors.forename: Golnosh
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Bahrami
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Vaeth
authors.forename: Ann
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Wenzel
authors.forename: Lise-Lotte
authors.initials: LL
authors.lastname: Kirkevang
authors.forename: Flemming
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Isidor
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D016301:Alveolar Bone Loss / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging* / Q000209:etiology; D055113:Chronic Periodontitis / Q000150:complications / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging*; D003442:Crowns; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D016014:Linear Models; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010485:Periapical Periodontitis; D010486:Periapical Tissue / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging; D011379:Prognosis; D011859:Radiography; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012307:Risk Factors; D017213:Root Caries; D012907:Smoking; D016388:Tooth Loss; D055815:Young Adult