title: Projecting coral reef futures under global warming and ocean acidification.
abstract: Many physiological responses in present-day coral reefs to climate change are interpreted as consistent with the imminent disappearance of modern reefs globally because of annual mass bleaching events, carbonate dissolution, and insufficient time for substantial evolutionary responses. Emerging evidence for variability in the coral calcification response to acidification, geographical variation in bleaching susceptibility and recovery, responses to past climate change, and potential rates of adaptation to rapid warming supports an alternative scenario in which reef degradation occurs with greater temporal and spatial heterogeneity than current projections suggest. Reducing uncertainty in projecting coral reef futures requires improved understanding of past responses to rapid climate change; physiological responses to interacting factors, such as temperature, acidification, and nutrients; and the costs and constraints imposed by acclimation and adaptation.
authors.affiliation: Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, St. Lucia, Queensland 4072, Australia. j.pandolfi@uq.edu.au
authors.forename: John M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Pandolfi
authors.forename: Sean R
authors.initials: SR
authors.lastname: Connolly
authors.forename: Dustin J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Marshall
authors.forename: Anne L
authors.initials: AL
authors.lastname: Cohen
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D037421:Anthozoa / Q000502:physiology; D044822:Biodiversity; D005075:Biological Evolution; D002113:Calcification, Physiologic; D002245:Carbon Dioxide / Q000032:analysis; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D017753:Ecosystem; D005544:Forecasting; D057232:Global Warming; D006863:Hydrogen-Ion Concentration; D009792:Oceans and Seas; D012623:Seawater / Q000737:chemistry*; D013559:Symbiosis
chemical_list: D002245:Carbon Dioxide