title: Predicting the outcome of long-term care by clinical and functional indices: the role of nutritional status.
abstract: In elderly subjects, past researches have already underlined the role of nutritional status as a basic factor able to influence the prognosis either in acute wards or in rehabilitation and long-term care settings. Aim of the study is that of retrospectively verify, through a multivariate analysis, the factors able to condition mortality in long-term care, paying particular attention to the nutritional status.
  
  
  METHODS
  The survey included 513 patients aged more than 65 years admitted to a long-term care unit during a three years period. Exitus within the first three months of hospitalization was considered the outcome variable, while baseline functional, cognitive, clinical and nutritional status were considered the independent variables eventually related to mortality.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The univariate analysis found that some variables were significantly correlated with the outcome: comorbidity, ADL, cognitive status, pressure sores, albumin, transferrin, CRP, mucoprotein, cholesterol, cholinesterase, MAMC and MNA. The predictive value of the block model of the logistic regression analysis was 77.9% (specificity = 85.3%, sensitivity = 63.9%). With the forward stepwise analysis only MNA, cholinesterase, CRP and mucoprotein were considered in the final model. In this case the predictive value of the model was 79.3% (specificity = 84.6%, sensitivity = 69.46%).
authors.affiliation: Department of Medical Physiopathology (Food Science Section) - “Sapienza” University of Rome, Italy. lorenzomaria.donini@uniroma1.it
authors.forename: L M
authors.initials: LM
authors.lastname: Donini
authors.forename: M R
authors.initials: MR
authors.lastname: De Felice
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Savina
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Coletti
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Paolini
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Laviano
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Scavone
authors.forename: B
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Neri
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Cannella
mesh_terms: D000203:Activities of Daily Living; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D015415:Biomarkers / Q000097:blood; D002097:C-Reactive Protein / Q000378:metabolism; D002802:Cholinesterases / Q000097:blood; D003071:Cognition; D015897:Comorbidity; D005260:Female; D015577:Geriatric Assessment; D006023:Glycoproteins / Q000097:blood; D019538:Health Care Surveys; D006760:Hospitalization; D016852:Housing for the Elderly; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008134:Long-Term Care; D008297:Male; D044342:Malnutrition / Q000401:mortality*; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D015596:Nutrition Assessment; D009752:Nutritional Status; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors
chemical_list: D015415:Biomarkers; D006023:Glycoproteins; C047874:gastric mucus glycoproteins; D002097:C-Reactive Protein; D002802:Cholinesterases