title: Prediction model for the incidence and prevalence of type 1 diabetes in childhood and adolescence: evidence for a cohort-dependent increase within the next two decades in Germany.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To provide data on type 1 diabetes (T1D) epidemiology in childhood over a period of 20 years and to predict prevalence and cohort-age-specific incidence rates (IRs) for the next two decades in Germany.
  
  
  METHODS
  The Baden-Wuerttemberg Diabetes Incidence Registry (DIARY) includes children and adolescents below 15 years of age with new onset of T1D (period 1987-2006, n = 5108 cases).
  
  
  RESULTS
  The mean age- and sex-standardized IR was 15.3/100 000/year (95% CI 14.8-15.7) and the average increase in the IR was 4.4% per year (95% CI 3.9-4.9). Within the next 20 years (2007-2026), the risk for developing diabetes will increase like the square of a linear function with calendar year for all age ranges. There is a strong correlation between the predicted IRs of the cohorts and the observed IRs (n = 300; root mean square error = 0.56; r(2) = 0.71) and a negative correlation between mean age at onset and T1D IR (p = 0.02). On 31 December 2006, the prevalence of T1D was 0.126% (95% CI 0.121-0.132). The predicted prevalence (end of 2026) is estimated to be 0.265% (95% CI 0.25-0.28; predicted cases: n = 2950; 95% CI 2900-3000).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In comparison to observations made in the past, the risk of disease rises even faster than expected: The younger the child, the quicker the increase of the cohort-age-specific IR and the higher the risk for T1D during lifetime.
authors.affiliation: Pediatric Endocrinology and Diabetes, University Children's Hospital, Tuebingen, Germany.
authors.forename: Stefan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Ehehalt
authors.forename: Klaus
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Dietz
authors.forename: Andre Manfred
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Willasch
authors.forename: Andreas
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Neu
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D017677:Age Distribution; D017668:Age of Onset; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D015988:Cohort Effect; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003922:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1 / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting / Q000379:methods; D005858:Germany / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D015995:Prevalence; D012737:Sex Factors