title: Lifetime probabilities of needing an organ transplant versus donating an organ after death.
abstract: The lifetime probabilities of becoming a deceased organ donor and requiring or receiving an organ transplant are unknown. An actuarial analysis was performed in a representative Canadian sample. Using Canadian organ donation data 1999-2007, provincial waiting list and population census data, actuarial rates were produced that provide the probabilities, by age band and gender, of (1) becoming a deceased organ donor, (2) needing an organ transplant and (3) receiving all organs needed. Regardless of age, the lifetime probability of needing a transplant for males is approximately twice that of females. Depending on age, Canadians are five to six times more likely to need an organ transplant than to become a deceased organ donor. The lifetime probabilities of not receiving a required organ transplant, expressed as a percentage of individuals on the waiting list, ranges from approximately 30% at birth, 20 years and 40 years to approximately 40% at 60 years. Across provinces and genders, Canadians at all ages are much more likely to need an organ transplant than to become an organ donor. Approximately one-third of those in need of a transplant will never receive one. How this information may influence organ donation decisions is currently under study.
authors.affiliation: Division of Critical Care, Montreal Children's Hospital, McGill University, Canada. sam.shemie@mcgill.ca
authors.forename: S D
authors.initials: SD
authors.lastname: Shemie
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Hornby
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Chandler
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Nickerson
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Burkell
mesh_terms: D002170:Canada; D003643:Death; D006801:Humans; D016377:Organ Transplantation; D011336:Probability; D014019:Tissue Donors