title: Modelling the distribution of domestic ducks in Monsoon Asia.
abstract: Domestic ducks are considered to be an important reservoir of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), as shown by a number of geospatial studies in which they have been identified as a significant risk factor associated with disease presence. Despite their importance in HPAI epidemiology, their large-scale distribution in monsoon Asia is poorly understood. In this study, we created a spatial database of domestic duck census data in Asia and used it to train statistical distribution models for domestic duck distributions at a spatial resolution of 1 km. The method was based on a modelling framework used by the Food and Agriculture Organisation to produce the Gridded Livestock of the World (GLW) database, and relies on stratified regression models between domestic duck densities and a set of agro-ecological explanatory variables. We evaluated different ways of stratifying the analysis and of combining the prediction to optimize the goodness of fit of the predictions. We found that domestic duck density could be predicted with reasonable accuracy (mean RMSE and correlation coefficient between log-transformed observed and predicted densities being 0.58 and 0.80, respectively), using a stratification based on livestock production systems. We tested the use of artificially degraded data on duck distributions in Thailand and Vietnam as training data, and compared the modelled outputs with the original high-resolution data. This showed, for these two countries at least, that these approaches could be used to accurately disaggregate provincial level (administrative level 1) statistical data to provide high resolution model distributions.
authors.affiliation: Biological Control and Spatial Ecology, Université Libre de Bruxelles CP160/12, Av FD Roosevelt 50, B1050, Brussels, Belgium.
authors.forename: Thomas P
authors.initials: TP
authors.lastname: Van Boeckel
authors.forename: Diann
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Prosser
authors.forename: Gianluca
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Franceschini
authors.forename: Chandra
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Biradar
authors.forename: William
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Wint
authors.forename: Tim
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Robinson
authors.forename: Marius
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Gilbert