title: The future of terrestrial mammals in the Mediterranean basin under climate change.
abstract: The Mediterranean basin is considered a hotspot of biological diversity with a long history of modification of natural ecosystems by human activities, and is one of the regions that will face extensive changes in climate. For 181 terrestrial mammals (68% of all Mediterranean mammals), we used an ensemble forecasting approach to model the future (approx. 2100) potential distribution under climate change considering five climate change model outputs for two climate scenarios. Overall, a substantial number of Mediterranean mammals will be severely threatened by future climate change, particularly endemic species. Moreover, we found important changes in potential species richness owing to climate change, with some areas (e.g. montane region in central Italy) gaining species, while most of the region will be losing species (mainly Spain and North Africa). Existing protected areas (PAs) will probably be strongly influenced by climate change, with most PAs in Africa, the Middle East and Spain losing a substantial number of species, and those PAs gaining species (e.g. central Italy and southern France) will experience a substantial shift in species composition.
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Lausanne , Biophore Building, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland. luigi.maiorano@unil.ch
authors.forename: Luigi
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Maiorano
authors.forename: Alessandra
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Falcucci
authors.forename: Niklaus E
authors.initials: NE
authors.lastname: Zimmermann
authors.forename: Achilleas
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Psomas
authors.forename: Julien
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Pottier
authors.forename: Daniele
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Baisero
authors.forename: Carlo
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Rondinini
authors.forename: Antoine
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Guisan
authors.forename: Luigi
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Boitani
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D044822:Biodiversity; D057231:Climate Change; D017753:Ecosystem; D056727:Endangered Species / Q000639:trends*; D008322:Mammals / Q000254:growth & development*; D019083:Mediterranean Region