title: Global scenarios of air pollutant emissions from road transport through to 2050.
abstract: This paper presents global scenarios of sulphur dioxide (SO(2)), nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), and particulate matter (PM) emissions from road transport through to 2050, taking into account the potential impacts of: (1) the timing of air pollutant emission regulation implementation in developing countries; (2) global CO(2) mitigation policy implementation; and (3) vehicle cost assumptions, on study results. This is done by using a global energy system model treating the transport sector in detail. The major conclusions are the following. First, as long as non-developed countries adopt the same vehicle emission standards as in developed countries within a 30-year lag, global emissions of SO(2), NO(x), and PM from road vehicles decrease substantially over time. Second, light-duty vehicles and heavy-duty trucks make a large and increasing contribution to future global emissions of SO(2), NO(x), and PM from road vehicles. Third, the timing of air pollutant emission regulation implementation in developing countries has a large impact on future global emissions of SO(2), NO(x), and PM from road vehicles, whereas there is a possibility that global CO(2) mitigation policy implementation has a comparatively small impact on them.
authors.affiliation: Transdisciplinary Initiative for Global Sustainability, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8654, Japan. takeshita@ir3s.u-tokyo.ac.jp
authors.forename: Takayuki
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Takeshita
mesh_terms: D000397:Air Pollution / Q000032:analysis* / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence; D002245:Carbon Dioxide / Q000032:analysis; D003906:Developing Countries; D052918:Environmental Restoration and Remediation / Q000032:analysis / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence*; D033161:Government Regulation; D018986:Motor Vehicles / Q000191:economics; D009589:Nitrogen Oxides / Q000032:analysis*; D052638:Particulate Matter / Q000032:analysis*; D013458:Sulfur Dioxide / Q000032:analysis*; D001335:Vehicle Emissions / Q000032:analysis / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence*
chemical_list: D009589:Nitrogen Oxides; D052638:Particulate Matter; D001335:Vehicle Emissions; D013458:Sulfur Dioxide; D002245:Carbon Dioxide