title: Slowing demand for total joint arthroplasty in a population of 3.2 million.
abstract: Accurate projections of future demand require constant updates of current data. This article reviews the most recent usage data for primary total joint arthroplasty (TJA) in a community-based hospital system with 3.2 million members. We used administrative databases to determine plan membership, surgical volume, and age-adjusted incidence rates for TJA from 1996 through 2009. The annual growth rate in surgical volume peaked in 2002 at 18% and decreased to 3% by 2009. The annual growth rate for age-adjusted incidence rates peaked in 2002 at 13% and declined to 2% in 2009. In our population, the incidence of TJA continues to rise but at a much slower pace than in recent years.
authors.affiliation: Division of Research Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Oakland, California, USA.
authors.forename: Stefano A
authors.initials: SA
authors.lastname: Bini
authors.forename: Stephen
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Sidney
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Sorel
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D019644:Arthroplasty, Replacement, Hip / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends*; D019645:Arthroplasty, Replacement, Knee / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends*; D002140:California; D019992:Databases as Topic; D006764:Hospitals, Community / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008875:Middle Aged; D012189:Retrospective Studies