title: Simulation model for Campylobacter cross-contamination during poultry processing at slaughterhouses.
abstract: Broiler meat is regarded as the most common source of Campylobacter infection and risk management measures are required to reduce broiler meat contamination. Among the quantitative risk assessments for Campylobacter in broiler meat, evaluation of the poultry processing stage is particularly important for predicting the contamination level of broiler meat and the effects of control measures. In this study, we built a simulation model for cross-contamination during poultry processing focusing on Campylobacter contamination at the individual carcass level. Using this model, we examined changes in the prevalence of contaminated carcasses and the number of Campylobacter per carcass after processing. As a result, it was found that the prevalence and number of Campylobacter after processing were largely influenced by the number of Campylobacter on the contaminated carcasses before processing. In the baseline model, where it was assumed that the mean number of Campylobacter on contaminated carcasses before processing was 4.7 log₁₀ cfu per carcass, the prevalence after processing was less than that before processing. Although the median value of Campylobacter on contaminated carcasses was reduced after processing, the distributions after processing became wider and the upper limit of the 95% credible interval of Campylobacter on contaminated carcasses remained elevated. The individual-based simulation model can trace individual level changes considering discrete interactions, while models tracing mean values cannot handle these interactions in detail. The individual-based approach is considered useful for modelling cross-contamination among individual carcasses during poultry processing.
authors.affiliation: Epidemiological Research Team, National Institute of Animal Health, Ibaraki, Japan. hayama@affrc.go.jp
authors.forename: Y
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Hayama
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Yamamoto
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Kasuga
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Tsutsui
mesh_terms: D000003:Abattoirs; D000818:Animals; D002167:Campylobacter / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D008954:Models, Biological; D011200:Poultry / Q000382:microbiology*