title: Improving the predictive accuracy of Static-99 and Static-2002 with older sex offenders: revised age weights.
abstract: Actuarial risk assessment scales and their associated recidivism estimates are generally developed on samples of offenders whose average age is well below 50 years. Criminal behavior of all types declines with age; consequently, actuarial scales tend to overestimate recidivism for older offenders. The current study aimed to develop a revised scoring system for two risk assessment tools (Static-99 and Static-2002) that would more accurately describe older offenders' risk of recidivism. Using data from 8,390 sex offenders derived from 24 separate samples, age was found to add incremental predictive validity to both Static-99 and Static-2002. After creating new age weights, the resulting instruments (Static-99R and Static-2002R) had only slightly higher relative predictive accuracy. The absolute recidivism estimates, however, provided a substantially better fit for older offenders than the recidivism estimates from the original scales. We encourage evaluators to adopt the revised scales with the new age weights.
authors.affiliation: Public Safety Canada, 340 Laurier Avenue West, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. Leslie.helmus@ps.gc.ca
authors.forename: Leslie
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Helmus
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Thornton
authors.forename: R Karl
authors.initials: RK
authors.lastname: Hanson
authors.forename: Kelly M
authors.initials: KM
authors.lastname: Babchishin
mesh_terms: D000206:Actuarial Analysis; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D057237:Criminals / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012307:Risk Factors; D012742:Sex Offenses / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires