title: An estimate of future transfusion needs in the province of Ravenna made on the basis of Italian national statistics and past consumption.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  After years of surpluses in numerous blood components in the province of Ravenna, there is now evidence that the increased use of such products is leading to an ever less abundant self-sufficiency. The concern about the possible loss of self-sufficiency, in a province in which the population of donors does not seem to be adequate to compensate for transfusion domands, led us to verify consumption and future prospects in greater detail.
  
  
  METHODS
  In order to plan future transfusion needs, past consumption was analysed dividing the population into several age groups. This historical use of blood products was projected into the scenario of the population in years to come to estimate needs and their increases over time.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The use of transfusion products is very different in different age groups, increasing notably with age. Age factor was identified as the most important factor determining blood product consumption.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  It will, therefore, be the aging of the population that causes an increase in blood product requirements. Projections from the Italian Institute of Statistics considering age groups of the population up to 2051 enable predictions of transfusion needs, in the absence of drastic interventions on the appropriateness of transfusion practices. Considering that the public and private hospitals of Ravenna predominantly admit subjects from its own territory, these predictions appear realistic, provided that new reasons for consumption are not introduced.
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics, University of Bologna, Italy.
authors.forename: Fausto
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Desalvo
authors.forename: Franco
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Verlicchi
authors.forename: Ivana
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Tomasini
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001803:Blood Transfusion / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends*; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007558:Italy; D008875:Middle Aged; D020380:Needs Assessment; D055815:Young Adult