title: An analysis of the demand for and revenue from companion animal veterinary services in Australia between 1996 and 2026 using industry revenue data and household census and pet ownership data and forecasts.
abstract: OBJECTIVE To examine the potential impact of household demographic and pet ownership trends on the demand for and revenue from companion animal veterinary services in Australia. DESIGN The size of the market for companion animal veterinary services was estimated by creating a model using assumptions derived from the revenue equation. The model was verified and validated through sensitivity analyses and comparisons between model outputs and available industry data. RESULTS The model provided outputs similar to alternative industry estimates and suggested that revenue growth in recent years has been much stronger than demand growth. Under the assumptions used in this model, forecast changes to household numbers and types are less important than pet ownership trends in determining the potential demand for and revenue from companion animal veterinary services. Forecast trends in household types and relatively stable pet ownership in the future will lead to growth in demand for companion animal veterinary services in real terms of approximately 1.2% per annum to 2026. CONCLUSION The market for companion animal veterinary services in Australia is mature and growth in demand is expected to remain low over the forecast period. For most veterinary practices within this environment, growth in revenue will be a function of growth in average client fees.
authors.affiliation: University of Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. john.baguley@sydney.edu.au
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Baguley
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D000829:Animals, Domestic; D001315:Australia; D002415:Cats; D003365:Costs and Cost Analysis; D004285:Dogs; D005249:Fees and Charges; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D007182:Income; D018803:Models, Economic; D020399:Practice Management / Q000191:economics*; D014730:Veterinary Medicine / Q000191:economics* / Q000639:trends