title: Dynamics of the plague-wildlife-human system in Central Asia are controlled by two epidemiological thresholds.
abstract: Plague (caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis) is a zoonotic reemerging infectious disease with reservoirs in rodent populations worldwide. Using one-half of a century of unique data (1949-1995) from Kazakhstan on plague dynamics, including data on the main rodent host reservoir (great gerbil), main vector (flea), human cases, and external (climate) conditions, we analyze the full ecoepidemiological (bubonic) plague system. We show that two epidemiological threshold quantities play key roles: one threshold relating to the dynamics in the host reservoir, and the second threshold relating to the spillover of the plague bacteria into the human population.
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208, USA. n-samia@northwestern.edu
authors.forename: Noelle I
authors.initials: NI
authors.lastname: Samia
authors.forename: Kyrre Linné
authors.initials: KL
authors.lastname: Kausrud
authors.forename: Hans
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Heesterbeek
authors.forename: Vladimir
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Ageyev
authors.forename: Mike
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Begon
authors.forename: Kung-Sik
authors.initials: KS
authors.lastname: Chan
authors.forename: Nils C
authors.initials: NC
authors.lastname: Stenseth
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D004197:Disease Reservoirs; D006801:Humans; D007623:Kazakhstan / Q000453:epidemiology; D010930:Plague / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012377:Rodentia / Q000382:microbiology; D005423:Siphonaptera / Q000382:microbiology