title: Integrated mapping of establishment risk for emerging vector-borne infections: a case study of canine leishmaniasis in southwest France.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis is endemic in the Mediterranean Basin, where the dog is the main reservoir host. The disease's causative agent, Leishmania infantum, is transmitted by blood-feeding female sandflies. This paper reports an integrative study of canine leishmaniasis in a region of France spanning the southwest Massif Central and the northeast Pyrenees, where the vectors are the sandflies Phlebotomus ariasi and P. perniciosus.
  
  
  METHODS
  Sandflies were sampled in 2005 using sticky traps placed uniformly over an area of approximately 100 by 150 km. High- and low-resolution satellite data for the area were combined to construct a model of the sandfly data, which was then used to predict sandfly abundance throughout the area on a pixel by pixel basis (resolution of c. 1 km). Using literature- and expert-derived estimates of other variables and parameters, a spatially explicit R(0) map for leishmaniasis was constructed within a Geographical Information System. R(0) is a measure of the risk of establishment of a disease in an area, and it also correlates with the amount of control needed to stop transmission.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  To our knowledge, this is the first analysis that combines a vector abundance prediction model, based on remotely-sensed variables measured at different levels of spatial resolution, with a fully mechanistic process-based temperature-dependent R(0) model. The resulting maps should be considered as proofs-of-principle rather than as ready-to-use risk maps, since validation is currently not possible. The described approach, based on integrating several modeling methods, provides a useful new set of tools for the study of the risk of outbreaks of vector-borne diseases.
authors.affiliation: Department of Farm Animal Health, Theoretical Epidemiology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands. n.a.hartemink@uu.nl
authors.forename: Nienke
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Hartemink
authors.forename: Sophie O
authors.initials: SO
authors.lastname: Vanwambeke
authors.forename: Hans
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Heesterbeek
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Rogers
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Morley
authors.forename: Bernard
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Pesson
authors.forename: Clive
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Davies
authors.forename: Shazia
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Mahamdallie
authors.forename: Paul
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Ready
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D000818:Animals; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control; D004283:Dog Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000469:parasitology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D004285:Dogs; D005260:Female; D005602:France / Q000453:epidemiology; D040362:Geographic Information Systems; D005843:Geography; D006801:Humans; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000469:parasitology*; D018314:Leishmania infantum / Q000302:isolation & purification; D007898:Leishmaniasis, Visceral / Q000469:parasitology / Q000635:transmission / Q000662:veterinary*; D008954:Models, Biological; D010691:Phlebotomus / Q000145:classification / Q000469:parasitology*; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D013045:Species Specificity; D013696:Temperature; D015047:Zoonoses / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000469:parasitology