title: Proximity to vacant buildings is associated with increased fire risk in Baltimore, Maryland, homes.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Fires and burns are a leading cause of unintentional injury death in the USA. Although it has been anecdotally reported that vacant dwellings are at a higher risk for fire, the association between vacancy and fire risk at the individual household level has not been empirically measured.
  
  
  METHODS
  In this cross-sectional study, geocoded residential vacant properties (VP) and fire events are analysed in Baltimore City at the census tract level and the individual household level.
  
  
  RESULTS
  On average, a 10% increase in the proportion of vacancies in a census tract was associated with a 9.9% increase in fires (95% CI: 5% to 15%). Random-effects Poisson models, controlling for housing and neighbourhood conditions, found contagion effects. The risk of fire in an occupied dwelling increased by 8% (95% CI: 1% to 10%) for every vacant structure within 10 m, and the risk of fire decreased by half (95% CI: 45% to 62%) for every km between an occupied dwelling and vacant building. Close proximity to VP was associated with trash fires within dwellings (p=0.039) and structure fires (p=0.012).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  We believe that this is the first study to demonstrate increased risk posed by nearby VP at the household level, confirming earlier ecological analyses of the role of VP as strong correlates of home fires. Measurement of this risk can motivate property owners, policy makers and insurers to invest in risk reduction measures that include building maintenance and trash removal.
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 615 N Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA.
authors.forename: Stephen E
authors.initials: SE
authors.lastname: Schachterle
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Bishai
authors.forename: Wendy
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Shields
authors.forename: Rebecca
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Stepnitz
authors.forename: Andrea C
authors.initials: AC
authors.lastname: Gielen
mesh_terms: D002947:Cities; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D004779:Environment Design; D005390:Fires / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006798:Housing / Q000592:standards / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D008396:Maryland; D012306:Risk