title: Nonparametric spatial regression of survival probability: visualization of population sinks in Eurasian woodcock.
abstract: Both evolutionary ecologists and wildlife managers make inference based on how fitness and demography vary in space. Spatial variation in survival can be difficult to assess in the wild because (1) multisite study designs are not well suited to populations that are continuously distributed across a large area and (2) available statistical models accounting for detectability less than 1.0 do not easily cope with geographical coordinates. Here we use penalized splines within a Bayesian state-space modeling framework to estimate and visualize survival probability in two dimensions. The approach is flexible in that no parametric form for the relationship between survival and coordinates need be specified a priori. To illustrate our method, we study a game species, the Eurasian Woodcock Scolopax rusticola, based on band recovery data (5000 individuals) collected over a > 50 000-km2 area in west-central France with contrasted habitats and hunting pressures. We find that spatial variation in survival probability matches an index of hunting pressure and creates a mosaic of population sources and sinks. Such analyses could provide guidance concerning the spatial management of hunting intensity or could be used to identify pathways of spatial variation in fitness, for example, to study adaptation to changing landscape and climate.
authors: Centre d'Ecologie Evolutive et Fonctionnelle UMR 5175, Campus CNRS, 1919 Route de Mende 34293 Montpellier Cedex 5, France. peron_guillaume@yahoo.fr
authors: Guillaume
authors: G
authors: Péron
authors: Yves
authors: Y
authors: Ferrand
authors: François
authors: F
authors: Gossmann
authors: Claudine
authors: C
authors: Bastat
authors: Michel
authors: M
authors: Guenezan
authors: Olivier
authors: O
authors: Gimenez
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D046091:Charadriiformes / Q000502:physiology*; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D017753:Ecosystem; D008954:Models, Biological; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012621:Seasons