title: Epidemiologic modeling with FluSurge for pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak, Queensland, Australia.
abstract: At the beginning of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak, we estimated the potential surge in demand for hospital-based services in 4 Health Service Districts of Queensland, Australia, using the FluSurge model. Modifications to the model were made on the basis of emergent evidence and results provided to local hospitals to inform resource planning for the forthcoming pandemic. To evaluate the fit of the model, a comparison between the model's predictions and actual hospitalizations was made. In early 2010, a Web-based survey was undertaken to evaluate the model's usefulness. Predictions based on modified assumptions arising from the new pandemic gained better fit than results from the default model. The survey identified that the modeling support was helpful and useful to service planning for local hospitals. Our research illustrates an integrated framework involving post hoc comparison and evaluation for implementing epidemiologic modeling in response to a public health emergency.
authors: Queensland Health, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
authors: Philip R A
authors: PR
authors: Baker
authors: Jiandong
authors: J
authors: Sun
authors: James
authors: J
authors: Morris
authors: Amanda
authors: A
authors: Dines
mesh_terms: D003198:Computer Simulation; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006760:Hospitalization / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D053118:Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009862:Online Systems; D058873:Pandemics; D011793:Queensland / Q000453:epidemiology; D012984:Software