title: Time-series model to predict impact of H1N1 influenza on a children's hospital.
abstract: The spring of 2009 witnessed the emergence of a novel influenza A(H1N1) virus resulting in the first influenza pandemic since 1968. In autumn of 2010, the 2009 novel H1N1 influenza strain re-emerged. We performed a retrospective time-series analysis of all patients with laboratory-confirmed H1N1 influenza who presented to our institution during 2009. Cases of influenza were assembled into 3-day aggregates and forecasting models of H1N1 influenza incidence were created. Forecasting estimates of H1N1 incidence for the 2010-2011 season were compared to actual values for our institution to assess model performance. Ninety-five percent confidence intervals calculated around our model's forecasts were accurate to ±3·6 cases per 3-day period for our institution. Our results suggest that time-series models may be useful tools in forecasting the incidence of H1N1 influenza, helping institutions to optimize distribution of resources based on the changing burden of illness.
authors: Division of Critical Care Medicine, Children's National Medical Center, 111 Michigan Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20010, USA. mspaeder@childrensnational.org
authors: M C
authors: MC
authors: Spaeder
authors: J R
authors: JR
authors: Stroud
authors: X
authors: X
authors: Song
mesh_terms: D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D015331:Cohort Studies; D006760:Hospitalization / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D053118:Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype / Q000302:isolation & purification* / Q000472:pathogenicity*; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology*; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D013997:Time Factors