title: Inpatient capacity at children's hospitals during pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak, United States.
abstract: Quantifying how close hospitals came to exhausting capacity during the outbreak of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 can help the health care system plan for more virulent pandemics. This ecologic analysis used emergency department (ED) and inpatient data from 34 US children's hospitals. For the 11-week pandemic (H1N1) 2009 period during fall 2009, inpatient occupancy reached 95%, which was lower than the 101% occupancy during the 2008-09 seasonal influenza period. Fewer than 1 additional admission per 10 inpatient beds would have caused hospitals to reach 100% occupancy. Using parameters based on historical precedent, we built 5 models projecting inpatient occupancy, varying the ED visit numbers and admission rate for influenza-related ED visits. The 5 scenarios projected median occupancy as high as 132% of capacity. The pandemic did not exhaust inpatient bed capacity, but a more virulent pandemic has the potential to push children's hospitals past their maximum inpatient capacity.
authors: University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora, CO 80045, USA. marion.sills@childrenscolorado.org
authors: Marion R
authors: MR
authors: Sills
authors: Matthew
authors: M
authors: Hall
authors: Evan S
authors: ES
authors: Fieldston
authors: Paul D
authors: PD
authors: Hain
authors: Harold K
authors: HK
authors: Simon
authors: Thomas V
authors: TV
authors: Brogan
authors: Daniel B
authors: DB
authors: Fagbuyi
authors: Michael B
authors: MB
authors: Mundorff
authors: Samir S
authors: SS
authors: Shah
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D001509:Bed Occupancy / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D006760:Hospitalization / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D053118:Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology*; D058873:Pandemics; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology