title: The effect of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. Findings from the Netherlands SimSmoke Tobacco Control Policy Simulation Model.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To develop a simulation model projecting the effect of tobacco control policies in the Netherlands on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths.
  
  
  METHODS
  Netherlands SimSmoke-an adapted version of the SimSmoke simulation model of tobacco control policy-uses population, smoking rates and tobacco control policy data for the Netherlands to predict the effect of seven types of policies: taxes, smoke-free legislation, mass media, advertising bans, health warnings, cessation treatment and youth access policies.
  
  
  METHODS
  Outcome measures were smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths.
  
  
  RESULTS
  With a comprehensive set of policies, as recommended by MPOWER, smoking prevalence can be decreased by as much as 21% in the first year, increasing to a 35% reduction in the next 20 years and almost 40% by 30 years. By 2040, 7706 deaths can be averted in that year alone with the stronger set of policies. Without effective tobacco control policies, almost a million lives will be lost to tobacco-related diseases between 2011 and 2040. Of those, 145,000 can be saved with a comprehensive tobacco control package.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in the Netherlands can be reduced substantially through tax increases, smoke-free legislation, high-intensity media campaigns, stronger advertising bans and health warnings, comprehensive cessation treatment and youth access laws. The implementation of these FCTC/MPOWER recommended policies could be expected to show similar or even larger relative reductions in smoking prevalence in other countries which currently have weak policies.
authors: Maastricht University, the Netherlands. gnagelhout@stivoro.nl
authors: Gera E
authors: GE
authors: Nagelhout
authors: David T
authors: DT
authors: Levy
authors: Kenneth
authors: K
authors: Blackman
authors: Laura
authors: L
authors: Currie
authors: Luke
authors: L
authors: Clancy
authors: Marc C
authors: MC
authors: Willemsen
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D005260:Female; D006291:Health Policy / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009426:Netherlands; D015995:Prevalence; D011633:Public Facilities / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence; D012907:Smoking / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence / Q000401:mortality; D000074606:Smoking Prevention; D011049:Social Control Policies / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence; D013660:Taxes / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence; D055815:Young Adult