title: The 2000 Bernstein-Parsonnet score and EuroSCORE are similar in predicting mortality at the Heart Institute, USP.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To evaluate the performance of 2000 Bernstein-Parsonnet (2000BP) and additive EuroSCORE (ES) for predicting surgical mortality at the Heart Institute, University of São Paulo.
  
  
  METHODS
  A prospective observational design. Seven hundred and seventy four patients were operated for coronary artery bypass graft, valve or combined procedure between May and October, 2007, were analyzed. The mortality was estimated with the 2000BP and ES. The correlation between expected mortality and observed mortality was validated through calibration and discrimination test.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The patients were stratified into five groups for the 2000BP and three for the ES. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test for 2000BP (P = 0.70) and for ES (P = 0.39) indicate a good calibration. The ROC curve for the 2000BP = 0.84 and for the ES = 0.81 confirms that the models are good predictors (P<0.001).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Both models are similar and adequate in predicting surgical mortality at the InCor-USP.
authors: Cardiovascular Surgeon (Sciences Doctoral Student; Heart Institute; University of São Paulo School of Medicine Clinics Hospital (InCor-HCFMUSP.).
authors: Omar Asdrúbal Vilca
authors: OA
authors: Mejía
authors: Luiz A Ferreira
authors: LA
authors: Lisboa
authors: Luiz Boro
authors: LB
authors: Puig
authors: Ricardo Ribeiro
authors: RR
authors: Dias
authors: Luís A
authors: LA
authors: Dallan
authors: Pablo M
authors: PM
authors: Pomerantzeff
authors: Noedir A G
authors: NA
authors: Stolf
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001938:Brazil; D002300:Cardiac Care Facilities / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006348:Cardiac Surgical Procedures / Q000145:classification / Q000401:mortality*; D001026:Coronary Artery Bypass / Q000401:mortality; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D005260:Female; D006351:Heart Valves / Q000601:surgery; D017052:Hospital Mortality; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods / Q000592:standards; D055815:Young Adult