title: Interarrival times of message propagation on directed networks.
abstract: One of the challenges in fighting cybercrime is to understand the dynamics of message propagation on botnets, networks of infected computers used to send viruses, unsolicited commercial emails (SPAM) or denial of service attacks. We map this problem to the propagation of multiple random walkers on directed networks and we evaluate the interarrival time distribution between successive walkers arriving at a target. We show that the temporal organization of this process, which models information propagation on unstructured peer to peer networks, has the same features as SPAM reaching a single user. We study the behavior of the message interarrival time distribution on three different network topologies using two different rules for sending messages. In all networks the propagation is not a pure Poisson process. It shows universal features on Poissonian networks and a more complex behavior on scale free networks. Results open the possibility to indirectly learn about the process of sending messages on networks with unknown topologies, by studying interarrival times at any node of the network.
authors.affiliation: Computational Physics, IfB, ETH Zurich, Schafmattstrasse 6, CH-8093 Zurich, Switzerland. tamaram@ethz.ch
authors.forename: Tamara
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Mihaljev
authors.forename: Lucilla
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: de Arcangelis
authors.forename: Hans J
authors.initials: HJ
authors.lastname: Herrmann