title: Prognostic nomogram to predict progression-free survival in patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer are a heterogeneous group, and it is not possible to accurately predict the progression-free survival (PFS) in these patients. We developed and validated a nomogram to help improve prediction of PFS in patients treated with platinum-based chemotherapy.
  
  
  METHODS
  The nomogram was developed in a training cohort (n=955) from the CALYPSO trial and validated in the AGO-OVAR 2.5 Study (n=340). The proportional-hazards model (nomogram) was based on pre-treatment characteristics.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The nomogram had a concordance index (C-index) of 0.645. Significant predictors were tumour size platinum-chemotherapy-free interval, CA-125, number of organ metastatic sites and white blood count. When the nomogram was applied without CA-125 (CA-125 was not available in validation cohort), the C-indices were 0.624 (training) and 0.594 (validation). When classification was based only on the platinum-chemotherapy-free interval, the indices were 0.571 (training) and 0.560 (validation). The calibration plot in the validation cohort based on four predictors (without CA-125) suggested good agreement between actual and nomogram-predicted 12-month PFS probabilities.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This nomogram, using five pre-treatment characteristics, improves prediction of PFS in patients with platinum-sensitive ovarian cancer having platinum-based chemotherapy. It will be useful for the design and stratification of patients in clinical trials and also for counselling patients.
authors.affiliation: NHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, University of Sydney, Locked Bag 77, Camperdown, New South Wales 1450, Australia. chee.lee@ctc.usyd.edu.au
authors.forename: C K
authors.initials: CK
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: R J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Simes
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Brown
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Lord
authors.forename: U
authors.initials: U
authors.lastname: Wagner
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Plante
authors.forename: I
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Vergote
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Pisano
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Parma
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Burges
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Bourgeois
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Högberg
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Bentley
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Angleitner-Boubenizek
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Ferrero
authors.forename: B
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Richter
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Hirte
authors.forename: V
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Gebski
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Pfisterer
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Pujade-Lauraine
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Friedlander
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000970:Antineoplastic Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D016190:Carboplatin / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D015331:Cohort Studies; D018572:Disease-Free Survival; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D010051:Ovarian Neoplasms / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000473:pathology; D011379:Prognosis; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models
chemical_list: D000970:Antineoplastic Agents; D016190:Carboplatin