title: Prediction of the incidence and persistence of allergic rhinitis in adolescence: a prospective cohort study.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Predictive models have rarely been used in allergy research and practice. However, they might support physicians in advising patients.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  The aim of this study was to create predictive models for the incidence and persistence of allergic rhinitis (AR) during adolescence.
  
  
  METHODS
  A prospective population-based cohort study was conducted starting at age 9 to 11 years. Potential risk factors for atopic diseases obtained at baseline in 2810 subjects were used to create predictive logistic regression models for the incidence and persistence of physician-diagnosed AR with current symptoms at age 15 to 18 years.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Positive skin prick test responses to outdoor allergens at baseline were the most important determinant for both the incidence and persistence of AR until follow-up. For the incidence of AR, positive skin prick test responses to indoor allergens, parental history of asthma, female sex, and not having been breast-fed exclusively for 2 or more months were additional statistically significant independent risk factors. Depending on the number of risk factors present, the probability of the incidence of AR increased from 2% (no risk factors present) to 72% (full model; 95% CI, 58% to 85%). The probability of persistence of AR ranged from 33% (no risk factors present) to 83% (full model; 95% CI, 70% to 97%).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The course of AR over puberty can be predicted using risk factors that are easy to determine in childhood. Sensitization to outdoor allergens seems to play a much greater role for disease development than sensitization to indoor allergens. This might help pediatricians in advising patients.
authors.affiliation: Occupational and Environmental Epidemiology & Net Teaching Unit, Institute and Outpatient Clinic for Occupational, Social and Environmental Medicine, University Hospital of Munich (LMU), Munich, Germany. jessica.kellberger@med.lmu.de
authors.forename: Jessica
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Kellberger
authors.forename: Holger
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Dressel
authors.forename: Christian
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Vogelberg
authors.forename: Wolfgang
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Leupold
authors.forename: Doris
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Windstetter
authors.forename: Gudrun
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Weinmayr
authors.forename: Jon
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Genuneit
authors.forename: Christian
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Heumann
authors.forename: Dennis
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Nowak
authors.forename: Erika
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: von Mutius
authors.forename: Katja
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Radon
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000485:Allergens / Q000276:immunology; D005260:Female; D005858:Germany / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D006967:Hypersensitivity / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000276:immunology; D015994:Incidence; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012220:Rhinitis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000276:immunology; D012307:Risk Factors; D012882:Skin Tests
chemical_list: D000485:Allergens