title: Breast and cervical cancer in 187 countries between 1980 and 2010: a systematic analysis.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Breast and cervical cancer are important causes of mortality in women aged ≥15 years. We undertook annual age-specific assessments of breast and cervical cancer in 187 countries.
  
  
  METHODS
  We systematically collected cancer registry data on mortality and incidence, vital registration, and verbal autopsy data for the period 1980-2010. We modelled the mortality-to-incidence (MI) ratio using a hierarchical model. Vital registration and verbal autopsy were supplemented with incidence multiplied by the MI ratio to yield a comprehensive database of mortality rates. We used Gaussian process regression to develop estimates of mortality with uncertainty by age, sex, country, and year. We used out-of-sample predictive validity to select the final model. Estimates of incidence with uncertainty were also generated with mortality and MI ratios.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Global breast cancer incidence increased from 641,000 (95% uncertainty intervals 610,000-750,000) cases in 1980 to 1,643,000 (1,421,000-1,782,000) cases in 2010, an annual rate of increase of 3·1%. Global cervical cancer incidence increased from 378,000 (256,000-489,000) cases per year in 1980 to 454,000 (318,000-620,000) cases per year in 2010-a 0·6% annual rate of increase. Breast cancer killed 425,000 (359,000-453,000) women in 2010, of whom 68,000 (62,000-74,000) were aged 15-49 years in developing countries. Cervical cancer death rates have been decreasing but the disease still killed 200,000 (139,000-276,000) women in 2010, of whom 46,000 (33,000-64,000) were aged 15-49 years in developing countries. We recorded pronounced variation in the trend in breast cancer mortality across regions and countries.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  More policy attention is needed to strengthen established health-system responses to reduce breast and cervical cancer, especially in developing countries.
  
  
  BACKGROUND
  Susan G Komen for the Cure and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
authors.affiliation: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, USA.
authors.forename: Mohammad H
authors.initials: MH
authors.lastname: Forouzanfar
authors.forename: Kyle J
authors.initials: KJ
authors.lastname: Foreman
authors.forename: Allyne M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Delossantos
authors.forename: Rafael
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Lozano
authors.forename: Alan D
authors.initials: AD
authors.lastname: Lopez
authors.forename: Christopher J L
authors.initials: CJ
authors.lastname: Murray
authors.forename: Mohsen
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Naghavi
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001943:Breast Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D019049:Developed Countries / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D003906:Developing Countries / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005260:Female; D014943:Global Health; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008875:Middle Aged; D002583:Uterine Cervical Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D055815:Young Adult