title: Excess mortality in Europe following a future Laki-style Icelandic eruption.
abstract: Historical records show that the A.D. 1783-1784 Laki eruption in Iceland caused severe environmental stress and posed a health hazard far beyond the borders of Iceland. Given the reasonable likelihood of such an event recurring, it is important to assess the scale on which a future eruption could impact society. We quantify the potential health effects caused by an increase in air pollution during a future Laki-style eruption using a global aerosol model together with concentration-response functions derived from current epidemiological studies. The concentration of particulate matter with diameters smaller than 2.5 µm is predicted to double across central, western, and northern Europe during the first 3 mo of the eruption. Over land areas of Europe, the current World Health Organization 24-h air quality guideline for particulate matter with diameters smaller than 2.5 µm is exceeded an additional 36 d on average over the course of the eruption. Based on the changes in particulate air pollution, we estimate that approximately 142,000 additional cardiopulmonary fatalities (with a 95% confidence interval of 52,000-228,000) could occur in Europe. In terms of air pollution, such a volcanic eruption would therefore be a severe health hazard, increasing excess mortality in Europe on a scale that likely exceeds excess mortality due to seasonal influenza.
authors.affiliation: School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom. a.schmidt@see.leeds.ac.uk
authors.forename: Anja
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Schmidt
authors.forename: Bart
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Ostro
authors.forename: Kenneth S
authors.initials: KS
authors.lastname: Carslaw
authors.forename: Marjorie
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Wilson
authors.forename: Thorvaldur
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Thordarson
authors.forename: Graham W
authors.initials: GW
authors.lastname: Mann
authors.forename: Adrian J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Simmons
mesh_terms: D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000032:analysis; D000397:Air Pollution / Q000009:adverse effects*; D000465:Algorithms; D004782:Environmental Health / Q000379:methods / Q000592:standards; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods / Q000592:standards; D062665:Epidemiological Monitoring; D005060:Europe / Q000453:epidemiology; D005544:Forecasting; D005843:Geography; D049671:History, 18th Century; D006801:Humans; D007055:Iceland / Q000453:epidemiology; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends*; D010316:Particle Size; D052638:Particulate Matter / Q000032:analysis; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods / Q000592:standards; D012307:Risk Factors; D018707:Volcanic Eruptions / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000266:history
chemical_list: D000393:Air Pollutants; D052638:Particulate Matter