title: Factors predicting clinical outcome 12 and 36 months after an exercise intervention for recurrent low-back pain.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The aim of this cohort study was to identify early predictive factors for a poor outcome of disability and pain 12- and 36-months after an intervention in patients with recurrent low-back pain, currently at work.
  
  
  METHODS
  Seventy-one patients with recurrent low-back pain, all at work, seeking care in a primary health care setting were included. Predictive indicators including demographic data and health-related variables were derived from questionnaires pre- and post intervention over eight weeks. The dependent outcome variables were perceived disability and present pain at 12- and 36-months.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Multivariate regression analyses show that early data on poor self-efficacy for physical activity, greater disability, and higher level of pain-ratings emerged as independent predictors of a poor outcome of disability at 12 and 36 months. Higher ratings of pain and poor self-efficacy appeared again as independent predictors of a poor outcome of pain at the 12-month follow-up. Pain frequency ratings predicted a poor outcome of pain at 36 months.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Our results suggest that ratings of poor self-efficacy for physical activity, greater disability, and pain-ratings, are the most consistent independent predictors of long-term poor outcome of disability and pain. This indicates the importance of screening for such factors to optimize the management of low-back pain. However, larger studies in similar patient populations are needed to confirm these results.
authors.affiliation: Division of Physiotherapy, Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden. eva.rasmussen.barr@ki.se
authors.forename: Eva
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Rasmussen-Barr
authors.forename: Marco
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Campello
authors.forename: Inga
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Arvidsson
authors.forename: Lena
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Nilsson-Wikmar
authors.forename: Björn-Olov
authors.initials: BO
authors.lastname: Ang
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D002908:Chronic Disease; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005081:Exercise Therapy / Q000379:methods; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D017116:Low Back Pain / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000628:therapy*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D017063:Outcome Assessment, Health Care / Q000379:methods; D010147:Pain Measurement; D011379:Prognosis; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012307:Risk Factors; D020377:Self Efficacy; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D013997:Time Factors; D055815:Young Adult