title: Usefulness of the admission electrocardiogram to predict long-term outcomes after non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome (from the FRISC II, ICTUS, and RITA-3 [FIR] Trials).
abstract: The aim of this study was to evaluate the independent prognostic value of qualitative and quantitative admission electrocardiographic (ECG) analysis regarding long-term outcomes after non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes (NSTE-ACS). From the Fragmin and Fast Revascularization During Instability in Coronary Artery Disease (FRISC II), Invasive Versus Conservative Treatment in Unstable Coronary Syndromes (ICTUS), and Randomized Intervention Trial of Unstable Angina 3 (RITA-3) patient-pooled database, 5,420 patients with NSTE-ACS with qualitative ECG data, of whom 2,901 had quantitative data, were included in this analysis. The main outcome was 5-year cardiovascular death or myocardial infarction. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated with Cox regression models, and adjustments were made for established outcome predictors. The additional discriminative value was assessed with the category-less net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement indexes. In the 5,420 patients, the presence of ST-segment depression (≥1 mm; adjusted HR 1.43, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.25 to 1.63) and left bundle branch block (adjusted HR 1.64, 95% CI 1.18 to 2.28) were independently associated with long-term cardiovascular death or myocardial infarction. Risk increases were short and long term. On quantitative ECG analysis, cumulative ST-segment depression (≥5 mm; adjusted HR 1.34, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.70), the presence of left bundle branch block (adjusted HR 2.15, 95% CI 1.36 to 3.40) or ≥6 leads with inverse T waves (adjusted HR 1.22, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.55) was independently associated with long-term outcomes. No interaction was observed with treatment strategy. No improvements in net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement were observed after the addition of quantitative characteristics to a model including qualitative characteristics. In conclusion, in the FRISC II, ICTUS, and RITA-3 NSTE-ACS patient-pooled data set, admission ECG characteristics provided long-term prognostic value for cardiovascular death or myocardial infarction. Quantitative ECG characteristics provided no incremental discrimination compared to qualitative data.
authors.affiliation: Department of Cardiology, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Damman
authors.forename: Lene
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Holmvang
authors.forename: Jan G P
authors.initials: JG
authors.lastname: Tijssen
authors.forename: Bo
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Lagerqvist
authors.forename: Tim C
authors.initials: TC
authors.lastname: Clayton
authors.forename: Stuart J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Pocock
authors.forename: Fons
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Windhausen
authors.forename: Alexander
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Hirsch
authors.forename: Keith A A
authors.initials: KA
authors.lastname: Fox
authors.forename: Lars
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Wallentin
authors.forename: Robbert J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: de Winter
mesh_terms: D054058:Acute Coronary Syndrome / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000503:physiopathology; D000368:Aged; D003937:Diagnosis, Differential; D004562:Electrocardiography / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010343:Patient Admission; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D013997:Time Factors