title: Risk factors for local spread of foot-and-mouth disease, 2010 epidemic in Japan.
abstract: To provide a basis for effective foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) prevention measures, factors associated with local spread were investigated in this study using data of the 2010 FMD epidemic in Japan. Thirty-eight local clusters within a 500-m radius from source farms were selected. In the clusters with pig source farms, more neighboring farms were infected in a short time compared with the clusters with cattle source farms. The influence of distance and wind upon local spread did not show a significant difference between infected and noninfected neighboring farms. Large-size pig farms posed a greater risk of inducing local spread; the odds ratio with reference to small-size cattle farms was 16.73. Middle-size and large-size cattle farms had a greater risk of infection; odds ratios with reference to small-size cattle farms were 15.65 and 25.52, respectively. The present results are useful for understanding features of local spread and prioritizing farms for control measures.
authors.affiliation: Epidemiological Research Team, National Institute of Animal Health, 3-1-5 Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan. hayama@affrc.go.jp
authors.forename: Y
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Hayama
authors.forename: N
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Muroga
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Nishida
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Kobayashi
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Tsutsui
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002417:Cattle; D002418:Cattle Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D016000:Cluster Analysis; D058872:Epidemics / Q000662:veterinary*; D005536:Foot-and-Mouth Disease / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission*; D007564:Japan / Q000453:epidemiology; D016015:Logistic Models; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D011156:Population Density; D012307:Risk Factors; D013552:Swine; D013553:Swine Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D013997:Time Factors