title: Results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California.
abstract: The Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California was the first competitive evaluation of forecasts of future earthquake occurrence. Participants submitted expected probabilities of occurrence of M ≥ 4.95 earthquakes in 0.1° × 0.1° cells for the period 1 January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2010. Probabilities were submitted for 7,682 cells in California and adjacent regions. During this period, 31 M ≥ 4.95 earthquakes occurred in the test region. These earthquakes occurred in 22 test cells. This seismic activity was dominated by earthquakes associated with the M = 7.2, April 4, 2010, El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake in northern Mexico. This earthquake occurred in the test region, and 16 of the other 30 earthquakes in the test region could be associated with it. Nine complete forecasts were submitted by six participants. In this paper, we present the forecasts in a way that allows the reader to evaluate which forecast is the most "successful" in terms of the locations of future earthquakes. We conclude that the RELM test was a success and suggest ways in which the results can be used to improve future forecasts.
authors.affiliation: Geology Department, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA.
authors.forename: Ya-Ting
authors.initials: YT
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: Donald L
authors.initials: DL
authors.lastname: Turcotte
authors.forename: James R
authors.initials: JR
authors.lastname: Holliday
authors.forename: Michael K
authors.initials: MK
authors.lastname: Sachs
authors.forename: John B
authors.initials: JB
authors.lastname: Rundle
authors.forename: Chien-Chih
authors.initials: CC
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.forename: Kristy F
authors.initials: KF
authors.lastname: Tiampo
mesh_terms: D002140:California; D055866:Earthquakes / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005544:Forecasting / Q000379:methods*; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D008962:Models, Theoretical