title: The role of models in estimating consequences as part of the risk assessment process.
abstract: The degree of disease risk represented by the introduction, spread, or establishment of one or several diseases through the importation of animals and animal products is assessed by importing countries through an analysis of risk. The components of a risk analysis include hazard identification, risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication. A risk assessment starts with identification of the hazard(s) and then continues with four interrelated steps: release assessment, exposure assessment, consequence assessment, and risk estimation. Risk assessments may be either qualitative or quantitative. This paper describes how, through the integration of epidemiological and economic models, the potential adverse biological and economic consequences of exposure can be quantified.
authors.affiliation: United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Veterinary Services, Centers for Epidemiology and Animal Health, 2150 Centre Avenue, Building B, Fort Collins, CO 80526-8117, USA.
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Forde-Folle
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Mitchell
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Zepeda
mesh_terms: D000820:Animal Diseases / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D000818:Animals; D001717:Birds; D003132:Commerce / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence / Q000458:organization & administration*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D053124:Influenza A Virus, H5N1 Subtype; D005585:Influenza in Birds / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission; D008954:Models, Biological; D018803:Models, Economic; D012306:Risk; D018570:Risk Assessment; D013269:Stochastic Processes; D014480:United Nations