title: The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis.
abstract: Recent studies have shown strong temporal correlations between past climate changes and societal crises. However, the specific causal mechanisms underlying this relation have not been addressed. We explored quantitative responses of 14 fine-grained agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic variables to climate fluctuations from A.D. 1500-1800 in Europe. Results show that cooling from A.D. 1560-1660 caused successive agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic catastrophes, leading to the General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century. We identified a set of causal linkages between climate change and human crisis. Using temperature data and climate-driven economic variables, we simulated the alternation of defined "golden" and "dark" ages in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere during the past millennium. Our findings indicate that climate change was the ultimate cause, and climate-driven economic downturn was the direct cause, of large-scale human crises in preindustrial Europe and the Northern Hemisphere.
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong. zhangd@hkucc.hku.hk
authors.forename: David D
authors.initials: DD
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.forename: Harry F
authors.initials: HF
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: Cong
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Baosheng
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Li
authors.forename: Qing
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Pei
authors.forename: Jane
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.forename: Yulun
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: An
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture / Q000191:economics / Q000266:history; D015984:Causality; D057231:Climate Change / Q000191:economics / Q000266:history* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D017753:Ecosystem; D002523:Edible Grain / Q000191:economics / Q000266:history; D004641:Emigration and Immigration / Q000266:history; D058872:Epidemics / Q000266:history; D005060:Europe; D049669:History, 16th Century; D049670:History, 17th Century; D049671:History, 18th Century; D049672:History, 19th Century; D006801:Humans; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012924:Social Conditions / Q000266:history; D013217:Starvation / Q000266:history; D014857:Warfare