title: Real-time adaptive models for the personalized prediction of glycemic profile in type 1 diabetes patients.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Prediction of glycemic profile is an important task for both early recognition of hypoglycemia and enhancement of the control algorithms for optimization of insulin infusion rate. Adaptive models for glucose prediction and recognition of hypoglycemia based on statistical and artificial intelligence techniques are presented.
  
  
  METHODS
  We compared an autoregressive (AR) model using only glucose information, an AR model with external insulin input (ARX), and an artificial neural network (ANN) using both glucose and insulin information. Online adaptive models were used to account for the intra- and inter-subject variability of the population with diabetes. The evaluation of the predictive ability included prediction horizons (PHs) of 30 min and 45 min.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The AR model presented root mean square error (RMSE) values of 14.0-21.6 mg/dL and correlation coefficients (CCs) of 0.92-0.95 for PH=30 min and 23.2-35.9 mg/dL and 0.79-0.87, respectively, for PH=45 min. The respective values for the ARX models were slightly better (PH=30 min, 13.3-18.8 mg/dL and 0.94-0.96; PH=45 min, 22.8-29.4 mg/dL and 0.83-0.88). For the ANN, the RMSE values ranged from 2.8 to 6.3 mg/dL, and the CC was 0.99 for all cases and PHs. The sensitivity of hypoglycemia prediction was 78% for AR, 81% for ARX, and 96% for ANN for PH=30 min and 65%, 67%, and 95%, respectively, for PH=45 min. The corresponding specificities were 96%, 96%, and 99% for PH=30 min and 93%, 93%, and 99% for PH=45 min.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The ANN appears to be more appropriate for the prediction of glucose profile based on glucose and insulin data.
authors: Diabetes Technology Research Group, ARTORG Center for Biomedical Engineering Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
authors: Elena
authors: E
authors: Daskalaki
authors: Aikaterini
authors: A
authors: Prountzou
authors: Peter
authors: P
authors: Diem
authors: Stavroula G
authors: SG
authors: Mougiakakou
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000465:Algorithms; D001786:Blood Glucose / Q000378:metabolism*; D015190:Blood Glucose Self-Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D002648:Child; D003922:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1 / Q000097:blood*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007003:Hypoglycemia / Q000097:blood*; D008297:Male; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D001786:Blood Glucose