title: Assessing network scale-up estimates for groups most at risk of HIV/AIDS: evidence from a multiple-method study of heavy drug users in Curitiba, Brazil.
abstract: One of the many challenges hindering the global response to the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic is the difficulty of collecting reliable information about the populations most at risk for the disease. Thus, the authors empirically assessed a promising new method for estimating the sizes of most at-risk populations: the network scale-up method. Using 4 different data sources, 2 of which were from other researchers, the authors produced 5 estimates of the number of heavy drug users in Curitiba, Brazil. The authors found that the network scale-up and generalized network scale-up estimators produced estimates 5-10 times higher than estimates made using standard methods (the multiplier method and the direct estimation method using data from 2004 and 2010). Given that equally plausible methods produced such a wide range of results, the authors recommend that additional studies be undertaken to compare estimates based on the scale-up method with those made using other methods. If scale-up-based methods routinely produce higher estimates, this would suggest that scale-up-based methods are inappropriate for populations most at risk of HIV/AIDS or that standard methods may tend to underestimate the sizes of these populations.
authors: Department of Sociology and Office of Population Research, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA. mjs3@princeton.edu
authors: Matthew J
authors: MJ
authors: Salganik
authors: Dimitri
authors: D
authors: Fazito
authors: Neilane
authors: N
authors: Bertoni
authors: Alexandre H
authors: AH
authors: Abdo
authors: Maeve B
authors: MB
authors: Mello
authors: Francisco I
authors: FI
authors: Bastos
mesh_terms: D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology; D001938:Brazil / Q000453:epidemiology; D015340:Epidemiologic Research Design; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology; D006801:Humans; D015995:Prevalence; D018570:Risk Assessment; D015819:Substance Abuse, Intravenous / Q000150:complications / Q000453:epidemiology*