title: A Bayesian network for analyzing biological acute and long-term impacts of an oil spill in the Gulf of Finland.
abstract: Knowledge of oil-induced impacts from the literature and experts were used to develop a Bayesian network to evaluate the biological consequences of an oil accident in the low-saline Gulf of Finland (GOF). Analysis was carried out for selected groups of organisms. Subnetworks were divided into subgroups according to a predicted response to oil exposure. Two scenario analyses are presented: the most probable and the worst-case accident. The impact of the most probable accident in the GOF is rather small. In most of the groups studied oil-induced long-term effects are evaluated to be minor at least from the perspective of the whole GOF. After the worst-case accident negative effects are more likely. The model predicts that the most vulnerable groups are auks and ducks. Amphipods, gulls and to a lesser extend littoral fishes and seals may show delayed recovery after an accident. Also annual plant species may be susceptible to oil-induced disturbances.
authors: Fisheries and Environmental Management (FEM) Group, Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Merikotka Research Center, Mussalontie 428, FI-48310 Kotka, Finland. tiina.lecklin@kotka.fi
authors: Tiina
authors: T
authors: Lecklin
authors: Riitta
authors: R
authors: Ryömä
authors: Sakari
authors: S
authors: Kuikka
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D059001:Aquatic Organisms / Q000187:drug effects*; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D005387:Finland; D005618:Fresh Water / Q000737:chemistry; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009792:Oceans and Seas; D010578:Petroleum / Q000633:toxicity*; D059392:Petroleum Pollution; D010944:Plants / Q000187:drug effects*; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012098:Reproduction; D013045:Species Specificity; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical / Q000737:chemistry / Q000633:toxicity*
chemical_list: D010578:Petroleum; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical