title: Aedes larval population dynamics and risk for dengue epidemics in Malaysia.
abstract: Early detection of a dengue outbreak is an important first step towards implementing   effective dengue interventions resulting in reduced mortality and morbidity. A dengue   mathematical model would be useful for the prediction of an outbreak and evaluation of   control measures. However, such a model must be carefully parameterized and validated   with epidemiological, ecological and entomological data. A field study was conducted to   collect and analyse various parameters to model dengue transmission and outbreak. Dengue prone   areas in Kuala Lumpur, Pahang, Kedah and Johor were chosen for this study. Ovitraps   were placed outdoor and used to determine the effects of meteorological parameters on   vector breeding. Vector population in each area was monitored weekly for 87 weeks. Weather   stations, consisting of a temperature and relative humidity data logger and an automated rain   gauge, were installed at key locations in each study site. Correlation and Autoregressive   Distributed Lag (ADL) model were used to study the relationship among the variables. Previous   week rainfall plays a significant role in increasing the mosquito population, followed by   maximum humidity and temperature. The secondary data of rainfall, temperature and humidity   provided by the meteorological department showed an insignificant relationship with the   mosquito population compared to the primary data recorded by the researchers. A well fit   model was obtained for each locality to be used as a predictive model to foretell possible   outbreak.
authors: Medical Entomology Unit, Institute for Medical Research, Jalan Pahang, 50588 Kuala Lumpur. rohania@imr.gov.my
authors: A
authors: A
authors: Rohani
authors: I
authors: I
authors: Suzilah
authors: M
authors: M
authors: Malinda
authors: I
authors: I
authors: Anuar
authors: I
authors: I
authors: Mohd Mazlan
authors: M
authors: M
authors: Salmah Maszaitun
authors: O
authors: O
authors: Topek
authors: Y
authors: Y
authors: Tanrang
authors: S C
authors: SC
authors: Ooi
authors: H
authors: H
authors: Rozilawati
authors: H L
authors: HL
authors: Lee
mesh_terms: D000330:Aedes / Q000254:growth & development*; D000818:Animals; D003715:Dengue / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D004199:Disease Vectors; D006801:Humans; D008296:Malaysia / Q000453:epidemiology; D008685:Meteorological Concepts; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011157:Population Dynamics; D018570:Risk Assessment