title: Predicting the development of schizophrenia in high-risk populations: systematic review of the predictive validity of prodromal criteria.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  There is a great deal of debate on the usefulness and accuracy of prodromal criteria in predicting schizophrenia. The risk of treating people who screen false positive with medication is considerable. Yet intervening during the prodromal stage of illness may reduce the burden caused by schizophrenia.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To draw together the evidence base for the predictive validity of prodromal criteria in identifying individuals at high risk of developing schizophrenia.
  
  
  METHODS
  We conducted a systematic review of prospective studies investigating the predictive validity of prodromal criteria in schizophrenia.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Our study found two main criteria, ultra-high-risk criteria and basic-symptoms criteria, used in studies investigating the predictive validity of prodromal symptoms. The sensitivity and specificity of ultra-high-risk criteria was 0.81 (95% CI 0.76-0.85) and 0.67 (95% CI 0.64-0.70) respectively and for basic-symptoms criteria sensitivity and specificity was 0.97 (95% CI 0.91-1.00) and 0.59 (95% CI 0.48-0.70) respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Both ultra-high-risk criteria and basic-symptoms criteria are useful in predicting the development of schizophrenia among high-risk populations.
authors: Greater Manchester West NHS Foundation Trust, Trafford Crisis Resolution and Home Treatment Team, 71A Chapel Road, Sale, Manchester M33 7EG, UK. jefta.chuma@trafford.nhs.uk
authors: Jefter
authors: J
authors: Chuma
authors: Prem
authors: P
authors: Mahadun
mesh_terms: D039721:Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders; D004198:Disease Susceptibility; D016021:Epidemiologic Studies; D005189:False Positive Reactions; D006801:Humans; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012559:Schizophrenia / Q000453:epidemiology*; D012565:Schizophrenic Psychology; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D013997:Time Factors