title: Modelling phosphorus dynamics in multi-branch river systems: a study of the Black River, Lake Simcoe, Ontario, Canada.
abstract: High rates of nutrient loading from agricultural and urban development have resulted in surface water eutrophication and groundwater contamination in regions of Ontario. In Lake Simcoe (Ontario, Canada), anthropogenic nutrient contributions have contributed to increased algal growth, low hypolimnetic oxygen concentrations, and impaired fish reproduction. An ambitious programme has been initiated to reduce phosphorus loads to the lake, aiming to achieve at least a 40% reduction in phosphorus loads by 2045. Achievement of this target necessitates effective remediation strategies, which will rely upon an improved understanding of controls on nutrient export from tributaries of Lake Simcoe as well as improved understanding of the importance of phosphorus cycling within the lake. In this paper, we describe a new model structure for the integrated dynamic and process-based model INCA-P, which allows fully-distributed applications, suited to branched river networks. We demonstrate application of this model to the Black River, a tributary of Lake Simcoe, and use INCA-P to simulate the fluxes of P entering the lake system, apportion phosphorus among different sources in the catchment, and explore future scenarios of land-use change and nutrient management to identify high priority sites for implementation of watershed best management practises.
authors: School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK.
authors: P G
authors: PG
authors: Whitehead
authors: L
authors: L
authors: Jin
authors: H M
authors: HM
authors: Baulch
authors: D A
authors: DA
authors: Butterfield
authors: S K
authors: SK
authors: Oni
authors: P J
authors: PJ
authors: Dillon
authors: M
authors: M
authors: Futter
authors: A J
authors: AJ
authors: Wade
authors: R
authors: R
authors: North
authors: E M
authors: EM
authors: O'Connor
authors: H P
authors: HP
authors: Jarvie
mesh_terms: D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D017753:Ecosystem; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D005068:Eutrophication; D060106:Lakes / Q000737:chemistry; D008956:Models, Chemical; D009864:Ontario; D010758:Phosphorus / Q000737:chemistry*; D045483:Rivers / Q000737:chemistry*; D012621:Seasons; D014872:Water Movements; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical / Q000737:chemistry*
chemical_list: D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical; D010758:Phosphorus