title: [Risk factors on the recurrence of ischemic stroke and the establishment of a Cox's regression model].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To investigate the risk factors and establish the Cox's regression model on the recurrence of ischemic stroke.
  
  
  METHODS
  We retrospectively reviewed consecutive patients with ischemic stroke admitted to the Neurology Department of the Hebei United University Affiliated Hospital between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2009. Cases had been followed since the onset of ischemic stroke. The follow-up program was finished in June 30, 2010. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to describe the recurrence rate. Monovariant and multivariate Cox's proportional hazard regression model were used to analyze the risk factors associated to the episodes of recurrence. And then, a recurrence model was set up.
  
  
  RESULTS
  During the period of follow-up program, 79 cases were relapsed, with the recurrence rates as 12.75% in one year and 18.87% in two years. Monovariant and multivariate Cox's proportional hazard regression model showed that the independent risk factors that were associated with the recurrence appeared to be age (X₁) (RR = 1.025, 95%CI: 1.003 - 1.048), history of hypertension (X₂) (RR = 1.976, 95%CI: 1.014 - 3.851), history of family strokes (X₃) (RR = 2.647, 95%CI: 1.175 - 5.961), total cholesterol amount (X₄) (RR = 1.485, 95%CI: 1.214 - 1.817), ESRS total scores (X₅) (RR = 1.327, 95%CI: 1.057 - 1.666) and progression of the disease (X₆) (RR = 1.889, 95%CI: 1.123 - 3.178). Personal prognosis index (PI) of the recurrence model was as follows: PI = 0.025X₁ + 0.681X₂ + 0.973X₃ + 0.395X₄ + 0.283X₅ + 0.636X₆. The smaller the personal prognosis index was, the lower the recurrence risk appeared, while the bigger the personal prognosis index was, the higher the recurrence risk appeared.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Age, history of hypertension, total cholesterol amount, total scores of ESRS, together with the disease progression were the independent risk factors associated with the recurrence episodes of ischemic stroke. Both recurrence model and the personal prognosis index equation were successful constructed.
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, Affiliated Hospital, the Hebei United University, Tangshan 063000, China.
authors.forename: Ya-chen
authors.initials: YC
authors.lastname: An
authors.forename: Yun-xia
authors.initials: YX
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.forename: Yu-xun
authors.initials: YX
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Xiao-jing
authors.initials: XJ
authors.lastname: Zhao
authors.forename: Yan
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Jiang
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.forename: Chun-ling
authors.initials: CL
authors.lastname: Li
authors.forename: Yan-bo
authors.initials: YB
authors.lastname: Peng
authors.forename: Su-ling
authors.initials: SL
authors.lastname: Gao
authors.forename: Li-sha
authors.initials: LS
authors.lastname: Chang
authors.forename: Li
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.forename: Xin-hong
authors.initials: XH
authors.lastname: Xue
authors.forename: Rui-ying
authors.initials: RY
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.forename: Da-li
authors.initials: DL
authors.lastname: Wang
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002545:Brain Ischemia / Q000453:epidemiology*; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011379:Prognosis; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012008:Recurrence; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D020521:Stroke / Q000453:epidemiology*