title: Model selection for modified gravity.
abstract: In this article, we review model selection predictions for modified gravity scenarios as an explanation for the observed acceleration of the expansion history of the Universe. We present analytical procedures for calculating expected Bayesian evidence values in two cases: (i) that modified gravity is a simple parametrized extension of general relativity (GR; two nested models), such that a Bayes' factor can be calculated, and (ii) that we have a class of non-nested models where a rank-ordering of evidence values is required. We show that, in the case of a minimal modified gravity parametrization, we can expect large area photometric and spectroscopic surveys, using three-dimensional cosmic shear and baryonic acoustic oscillations, to 'decisively' distinguish modified gravity models over GR (or vice versa), with odds of ≫1:100. It is apparent that the potential discovery space for modified gravity models is large, even in a simple extension to gravity models, where Newton's constant G is allowed to vary as a function of time and length scale. On the time and length scales where dark energy dominates, it is only through large-scale cosmological experiments that we can hope to understand the nature of gravity.
authors.affiliation: SUPA, Institute for Astronomy, University of Edinburgh, Blackford Hill, Edinburgh EH9 3HJ, UK. tdk@roe.ac.uk
authors.forename: T D
authors.initials: TD
authors.lastname: Kitching
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Simpson
authors.forename: A F
authors.initials: AF
authors.lastname: Heavens
authors.forename: A N
authors.initials: AN
authors.lastname: Taylor