title: Estimating cyanobacterial bloom transport by coupling remotely sensed imagery and a hydrodynamic model.
abstract: The ability to forecast the transport of harmful cyanobacterial blooms in the Laurentian Great Lakes is beneficial to natural resource managers concerned with public health. This manuscript describes a method that improves the prediction of cyanobacterial bloom transport with the use of a preoperational hydrodynamic model and high temporal resolution satellite imagery. Two scenarios were examined from separate cyanobacterial blooms in western Lake Erie, USA. The first scenario modeled bloom position and extent over the span of 13 days. A geographic center, or centroid, was calculated and assigned to the bloom from observed satellite imagery. The bloom centroid was projected forward in time, and the projected position was compared to the final observed bloom centroid. Image pixels flagged as cyanobacterial bloom were compared between the initial image and the final image, and this was assumed as persistence. The second bloom scenario was modeled for a period of 12 days, and the results were framed in an ecological context in an effort to gain further understanding of cyanobacterial bloom dynamics. These modeling techniques can be incorporated into an operational forecasting system.
authors.affiliation: NOAA, Center for Coastal Monitoring and Assessment, 1305 East-West Highway, Silver Spring, Maryland 20910, USA. Timothy.Wynne@noaa.gov
authors.forename: Timothy T
authors.initials: TT
authors.lastname: Wynne
authors.forename: Richard P
authors.initials: RP
authors.lastname: Stumpf
authors.forename: Michelle C
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: Tomlinson
authors.forename: David J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Schwab
authors.forename: Glen Y
authors.initials: GY
authors.lastname: Watabayashi
authors.forename: John D
authors.initials: JD
authors.lastname: Christensen
mesh_terms: D000458:Cyanobacteria; D017753:Ecosystem; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D006114:Great Lakes Region; D057097:Harmful Algal Bloom; D060106:Lakes; D008954:Models, Biological; D058998:Remote Sensing Technology; D013997:Time Factors; D014872:Water Movements