title: A worldwide investigation of tuberculosis epidemics.
abstract: We analyse the tuberculosis (TB) epidemics of 211 countries with a view to proposing more efficient and targeted TB control strategies. Countries are classified by how their TB case notification rates have evolved over time and the age distribution of those suffering from active TB disease in 2008. Further analysis of key statistics associated with each of the countries shows the impact of different indicators. As expected, HIV is a key driver of TB epidemics and affects their age-distribution and their scale. The level of development of a country and its wealth also vary with the shape and scale of a country's TB epidemic. Immigration has an influence on the shape of TB epidemics, which is particularly pronounced in highly developed countries with low levels of TB disease in the native population. We conclude by proposing how the TB control programme in each country analysed should prioritise its efforts.
authors.affiliation: School of Mathematics, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK. christine.currie@soton.ac.uk
authors.forename: Christine S M
authors.initials: CS
authors.lastname: Currie
authors.forename: Kathryn A
authors.initials: KA
authors.lastname: Hoad
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D016000:Cluster Analysis; D004641:Emigration and Immigration; D058872:Epidemics; D005260:Female; D014943:Global Health; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D017678:Sex Distribution; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D018088:Tuberculosis, Multidrug-Resistant / Q000453:epidemiology; D014397:Tuberculosis, Pulmonary / Q000453:epidemiology*; D055815:Young Adult
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