title: A new approach to scoring systems to improve identification of acute medical admissions that will require critical care.
abstract: Removal of the intensive care unit (ICU) at the Vale of Leven Hospital mandated the identification and transfer out of those acute medical admissions with a high risk of requiring ICU. The aim of the study was to develop triaging tools that identified such patients and compare them with other scoring systems. The methodology included a retrospective analysis of physiological and arterial gas measurements from 1976 acute medical admissions produced PREEMPT-1 (PRE-critical Emergency Medical Patient Triage). A simpler one for ambulance use (PREAMBLE-1 [PRE-Admission Medical Blue-Light Emergency]) was produced by the addition of peripheral oxygen saturation to a modification of MEWS (Modified Early Warning Score). Prospective application of these tools produced a larger database of 4447 acute admissions from which logistic regression models produced PREEMPT-2 and PREAMBLE-2, which were then compared with the original systems and seven other early warning scoring systems. Results showed that in patients with arterial gases, the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve was significantly higher in PREEMPT-2 (89·1%) and PREAMBLE-2 (84.4%) than all other scoring systems. Similarly, in all patients, it was higher in PREAMBLE-2 (92·4%) than PREAMBLE-1 (88·1%) and the other scoring systems. In conclusion, risk of requiring ICU can be more accurately predicted using PREEMPT-2 and PREAMBLE-2, as described here, than by other early warning scoring systems developed over recent years.
authors.affiliation: Vale of Leven Hospital, Main Street, Alexandria, Dunbartonshire G83 0UA, Scotland, UK. hughcarmichael@hotmail.com
authors.forename: H A
authors.initials: HA
authors.lastname: Carmichael
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Robertson
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Austin
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: McCruden
authors.forename: C M
authors.initials: CM
authors.lastname: Messow
authors.forename: P R
authors.initials: PR
authors.lastname: Belcher
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001784:Blood Gas Analysis; D002648:Child; D003422:Critical Care; D004636:Emergency Service, Hospital; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010343:Patient Admission; D010360:Patient Transfer; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012372:ROC Curve; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D014218:Triage / Q000379:methods*; D055815:Young Adult