title: The capacity of acute stress disorder to predict posttraumatic psychiatric disorders.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  One rationale for establishing the acute stress disorder diagnosis was to identify recently trauma-exposed people who may develop later posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). This study conducted a multi-site assessment of the extent to which ASD predicts subsequent PTSD, and also major depressive disorder, panic disorder, agoraphobia, social phobia, specific phobia, generalized anxiety disorder, and substance use disorder, 12 months after trauma.
  
  
  METHODS
  Consecutive admissions to 5 major trauma hospitals across Australia (N = 1084) were assessed during hospital admission and within one month of trauma exposure and subsequently re-assessed for psychiatric disorder 12 months after the initial assessment (N = 859).
  
  
  RESULTS
  Whereas 120 (10%) patients met criteria for ASD in the initial month after trauma, 83 (10%) met criteria for PTSD, and 268 (31%) had any psychiatric disorder at 12 months. In terms of those diagnosed with ASD, 28 (36%) subsequently met criteria for PTSD and 50 (65%) subsequently developed any psychiatric disorder.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Whereas the majority of people with ASD subsequently develop a psychiatric disorder, most people with a disorder at 12 months do not initially display ASD.
authors.affiliation: University of New South Wales, Australia. r.bryant@unsw.edu.au
authors.forename: Richard A
authors.initials: RA
authors.lastname: Bryant
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Creamer
authors.forename: Meaghan
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: O'Donnell
authors.forename: Derrick
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Silove
authors.forename: Alexander C
authors.initials: AC
authors.lastname: McFarlane
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001315:Australia; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D001523:Mental Disorders / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011569:Psychiatric Status Rating Scales; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D013313:Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D040701:Stress Disorders, Traumatic, Acute / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000523:psychology; D055815:Young Adult