title: Comparing three basic models for seasonal influenza.
abstract: In this paper we report the use of the open source Spatiotemporal Epidemiological Modeler (STEM, www.eclipse.org/stem) to compare three basic models for seasonal influenza transmission. The models are designed to test for possible differences between the seasonal transmission of influenza A and B. Model 1 assumes that the seasonality and magnitude of transmission do not vary between influenza A and B. Model 2 assumes that the magnitude of seasonal forcing (i.e., the maximum transmissibility), but not the background transmission or flu season length, differs between influenza A and B. Model 3 assumes that the magnitude of seasonal forcing, the background transmission, and flu season length all differ between strains. The models are all optimized using 10 years of surveillance data from 49 of 50 administrative divisions in Israel. Using a cross-validation technique, we compare the relative accuracy of the models and discuss the potential for prediction. We find that accounting for variation in transmission amplitude increases the predictive ability compared to the base. However, little improvement is obtained by allowing for further variation in the shape of the seasonal forcing function.
authors.affiliation: IBM Almaden Research Center, San Jose, CA 95120, USA. edlund@almaden.ibm.com
authors.forename: Stefan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Edlund
authors.forename: James
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Kaufman
authors.forename: Justin
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Lessler
authors.forename: Judith
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Douglas
authors.forename: Michal
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Bromberg
authors.forename: Zalman
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Kaufman
authors.forename: Ravit
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Bassal
authors.forename: Gabriel
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Chodick
authors.forename: Rachel
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Marom
authors.forename: Varda
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Shalev
authors.forename: Yossi
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Mesika
authors.forename: Roni
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Ram
authors.forename: Alex
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Leventhal
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D053118:Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype / Q000302:isolation & purification; D009981:Influenza B virus / Q000302:isolation & purification; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission* / Q000821:virology*; D007557:Israel / Q000453:epidemiology; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012621:Seasons; D018571:Sentinel Surveillance