title: Overdiagnosis from non-progressive cancer detected by screening mammography: stochastic simulation study with calibration to population based registry data.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To quantify the magnitude of overdiagnosis from non-progressive disease detected by screening mammography, after adjustment for the potential for lead time bias, secular trend in the underlying risk of breast cancer, and opportunistic screening.
  
  
  METHODS
  Approximate bayesian computation analysis with a stochastic simulation model designed to replicate standardised incidence rates of breast cancer. The model components included the lifetime probability of breast cancer, the natural course of breast cancer, and participation in organised and opportunistic mammography screening.
  
  
  METHODS
  Isère, a French administrative region with nearly 1.2 million inhabitants.
  
  
  METHODS
  All women living in Isère and aged 50-69 during 1991-2006.
  
  
  METHODS
  Overdiagnosis, defined as the proportion of non-progressive cancers among all cases of invasive cancer and carcinoma in situ detected 1991-2006.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In 1991-2006, overdiagnosis from non-progressive disease accounted for 1.5% of all cases of invasive cancer (95% credibility interval 0.3% to 2.9%) and 28.0% of all cases of carcinoma in situ (2.2% to 59.8%) detected either clinically or by screening mammography in Isère. When analysis was restricted to the cancers detected by screening mammography only, the estimates of overdiagnosis were 3.3% (0.7% to 6.5%) and 31.9% (2.9% to 62.3%) for invasive cancer and carcinomas in situ, respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Overdiagnosis from the detection of non-progressive disease by screening mammography was limited in 1991-2006 in Isère. Because carcinoma in situ accounted for less than 15% of all incident breast cancer cases, its contribution to overdiagnosis was relatively limited and imprecise.
authors: Registre du Cancer de l'Isère, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Grenoble, BP 217, Pavillon E, 38043 Grenoble Cedex 9, France. aseigneurin@chu-grenoble.fr
authors: Arnaud
authors: A
authors: Seigneurin
authors: Olivier
authors: O
authors: François
authors: José
authors: J
authors: Labarère
authors: Pierre
authors: P
authors: Oudeville
authors: Jean
authors: J
authors: Monlong
authors: Marc
authors: M
authors: Colonna
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D001943:Breast Neoplasms / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008327:Mammography; D008875:Middle Aged; D012042:Registries; D013269:Stochastic Processes