title: Impact of rotavirus vaccination on epidemiological dynamics in England and Wales.
abstract: Rotavirus infection causes severe gastroenteritis (RVGE) in children worldwide. Its disease burden has been reduced in countries where mass vaccination programs have been introduced. However, England and Wales have not yet implemented such a mass vaccination program. This paper uses a dynamic model to predict the effect of a mass vaccination program in England and Wales beginning in the fall of 2011. The dynamic model is parameterized with country-specific data for the introduction of a rotavirus vaccine. We report the impact of vaccination, in both the short- and long-term, on disease incidence reduction, timing of seasonal epidemics and the level of herd protection. Our results predict that vaccination can reduce the burden of severe RVGE by 70% and delay the rotavirus epidemic peak by two and a half months with a coverage of 95%. Our calculations further show that herd protection accounts for about a quarter of the reduction in RVGE incidence. If vaccine-induced protection does not wane over three years, severe RVGE in children under five years of age could be eliminated within two years after the introduction of vaccination. This work lays the foundation for policy-makers to determine the impact of a mass vaccination program against rotavirus in England and Wales.
authors: Yale School of Public Health, 135 College Street, New Haven, CT 06510, USA. katherine.atkins@yale.edu
authors: Katherine E
authors: KE
authors: Atkins
authors: Eunha
authors: E
authors: Shim
authors: Virginia E
authors: VE
authors: Pitzer
authors: Alison P
authors: AP
authors: Galvani
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D004739:England / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D005759:Gastroenteritis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012400:Rotavirus Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control*; D022243:Rotavirus Vaccines / Q000008:administration & dosage* / Q000276:immunology*; D014611:Vaccination / Q000379:methods* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D014852:Wales / Q000453:epidemiology; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D022243:Rotavirus Vaccines