title: Estimation and projection of the HIV epidemic trend among the migrant population in China.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The migrant population is a vulnerable group for HIV infection in China. Understanding potential epidemic trends among migrants is critical for developing HIV preventative measures in this population.
  
  
  METHODS
  The Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model was used to process prefecture and county-level surveillance data to generate HIV prevalence and epidemic trends for migrant populations in China.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The prevalence of HIV among migrants in 2009 was estimated at 0.075% (95% CI: 0.042%, 0.108%) in China. The HIV epidemic among migrants is likely to increase over the next 5 years, with the prevalence expected to reach 0.110% (95% CI: 0.070%, 0.150%) by 2015.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Although the 2009 estimates for the HIV/AIDS epidemic in China indicate a slower rate of increase compared with the national HIV/AIDS epidemic, it is estimated to persistently increase among migrants over the next 5 years. Migrants will have a strong impact on the overall future of the HIV epidemic trend in China and evidence-based prevention and monitoring efforts should be expanded for this vulnerable population.
authors: National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
authors: XiaoJun
authors: X
authors: Meng
authors: Lu
authors: L
authors: Wang
authors: Susan
authors: S
authors: Chan
authors: Kathleen Heather
authors: KH
authors: Reilly
authors: ZhiHang
authors: Z
authors: Peng
authors: Wei
authors: W
authors: Guo
authors: GuoWei
authors: G
authors: Ding
authors: ZhengWei
authors: Z
authors: Ding
authors: QianQian
authors: Q
authors: Qin
mesh_terms: D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D017280:Condoms; D058872:Epidemics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D015995:Prevalence; D012307:Risk Factors; D021841:Safe Sex; D012725:Sexual Behavior; D014171:Transients and Migrants