title: Climate sensitivity estimated from temperature reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum.
abstract: Assessing the impact of future anthropogenic carbon emissions is currently impeded by uncertainties in our knowledge of equilibrium climate sensitivity to atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling. Previous studies suggest 3 kelvin (K) as the best estimate, 2 to 4.5 K as the 66% probability range, and nonzero probabilities for much higher values, the latter implying a small chance of high-impact climate changes that would be difficult to avoid. Here, combining extensive sea and land surface temperature reconstructions from the Last Glacial Maximum with climate model simulations, we estimate a lower median (2.3 K) and reduced uncertainty (1.7 to 2.6 K as the 66% probability range, which can be widened using alternate assumptions or data subsets). Assuming that paleoclimatic constraints apply to the future, as predicted by our model, these results imply a lower probability of imminent extreme climatic change than previously thought.
authors: College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331-5503, USA. aschmitt@coas.oregonstate.edu
authors: Andreas
authors: A
authors: Schmittner
authors: Nathan M
authors: NM
authors: Urban
authors: Jeremy D
authors: JD
authors: Shakun
authors: Natalie M
authors: NM
authors: Mahowald
authors: Peter U
authors: PU
authors: Clark
authors: Patrick J
authors: PJ
authors: Bartlein
authors: Alan C
authors: AC
authors: Mix
authors: Antoni
authors: A
authors: Rosell-Melé