title: Geographical mapping and Bayesian spatial modeling of malaria incidence in Sistan and Baluchistan province, Iran.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To present the geographical map of malaria and identify some of the important environmental factors of this disease in Sistan and Baluchistan province, Iran.
  
  
  METHODS
  We used the registered malaria data to compute the standard incidence rates (SIRs) of malaria in different areas of Sistan and Baluchistan province for a nine-year period (from 2001 to 2009). Statistical analyses consisted of two different parts: geographical mapping of malaria incidence rates, and modeling the environmental factors. The empirical Bayesian estimates of malaria SIRs were utilized for geographical mapping of malaria and a Poisson random effects model was used for assessing the effect of environmental factors on malaria SIRs.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In general, 64,926 new cases of malaria were registered in Sistan and Baluchistan Province from 2001 to 2009. Among them, 42,695 patients (65.8%) were male and 22,231 patients (34.2%) were female. Modeling the environmental factors showed that malaria incidence rates had positive relationship with humidity, elevation, average minimum temperature and average maximum temperature, while rainfall had negative effect on malaria SIRs in this province.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The results of the present study reveals that malaria is still a serious health problem in Sistan and Baluchistan province, Iran. Geographical map and related environmental factors of malaria can help the health policy makers to intervene in high risk areas more efficiently and allocate the resources in a proper manner.
authors: Department of Biostatistics, Faculty of Paramedical Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
authors: Farid
authors: F
authors: Zayeri
authors: Masoud
authors: M
authors: Salehi
authors: Hasan
authors: H
authors: Pirhosseini
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D003695:Delivery of Health Care / Q000458:organization & administration; D005260:Female; D006291:Health Policy; D006801:Humans; D006813:Humidity; D015994:Incidence; D007492:Iran / Q000453:epidemiology; D008288:Malaria / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission; D017780:Malaria Vaccines; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011050:Policy Making; D012307:Risk Factors; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D017780:Malaria Vaccines