title: Modelling the long term impact of climate change on the carbon budget of Lake Simcoe, Ontario using INCA-C.
abstract: This study presents a process-based model of dissolved organic carbon concentration ([DOC]) in catchments draining into Lake Simcoe, Ontario. INCA-C, the Integrated Catchment model for Carbon, incorporates carbon biogeochemical processes in a terrestrial system with hydrologic flow paths to simulate watershed wide [DOC]. The model successfully simulates present-day inter-annual and seasonal [DOC] dynamics in tributaries draining catchments with mixed or contrasting land cover in the Lake Simcoe watershed (LSW). The sensitivity of INCA-C to soil moisture, hydrologic controls and land uses within a watershed demonstrates its significance as a tool to explore pertinent environmental issues specific to the LSW. Projections of climate change under A1B and A2 SRES scenarios suggest a continuous monotonic increase in [DOC] in surface waters draining into Lake Simcoe. Large variations in seasonal DOC dynamics are predicted to occur during summer with a possibility of displacement of summer [DOC] maxima towards winter and a prolongation of summer [DOC] levels into the autumn. INCA-C also predicts possible increases in dissolved inorganic carbon in some tributaries with rising temperature suggesting increased CO(2) emissions from rivers as climate changes.
authors: Environmental and Life Sciences Graduate Program, Trent University, 1600 West Bank Drive, Peterborough ON, Canada K9J 7B8. stephenoni@trentu.ca
authors: S K
authors: SK
authors: Oni
authors: M N
authors: MN
authors: Futter
authors: L A
authors: LA
authors: Molot
authors: P J
authors: PJ
authors: Dillon
mesh_terms: D057486:Carbon Cycle / Q000502:physiology*; D057231:Climate Change; D040362:Geographic Information Systems; D060106:Lakes / Q000737:chemistry*; D008956:Models, Chemical; D009864:Ontario