title: [Risk model to assess livestock rabies exposure in the state of São Paulo, Brazil].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To propose a qualitative risk assessment model for the study of livestock exposure to rabies virus from the vampire bat Desmodus rotundus (antigenic variant 3) in the Paraíba do Sul river valley, state of São Paulo, Brazil.
  
  
  METHODS
  Based on scenario trees generated considering rabies exposure and its spread, we estimated the probability of rabies cases in large livestock and its association with the geographic location of livestock farms.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Assessment of the historical series of rabies focal points in the first semester of 2006, which was used to validate the risk assessment model, revealed that 81.8% of the focal points were adequately foreseen by the model and could have been prevented with strategic vaccination in high-risk areas.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The adoption of control measures specifically targeting high-risk areas might entail a substantial decrease in the number of rabies focal points, at a low cost and with optimal movement of field teams.
authors: Departamento de Medicina Veterinária Preventiva e Saúde Animal, Faculdade de Medicina Veterinária e Zootecnia, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brasil. dias@vps.fmvz.usp.br
authors: Ricardo Augusto
authors: RA
authors: Dias
authors: Vladimir de Souza
authors: Vde S
authors: Nogueira Filho
authors: Carla da Silva
authors: Cda S
authors: Goulart
authors: Isabel Cristine Oliveira
authors: IC
authors: Telles
authors: Guilherme Henrique Figueiredo
authors: GH
authors: Marques
authors: Fernando
authors: F
authors: Ferreira
authors: Marcos
authors: M
authors: Amaku
authors: José Soares
authors: JS
authors: Ferreira Neto
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001938:Brazil / Q000453:epidemiology; D002417:Cattle; D005843:Geography; D006801:Humans; D058751:Livestock / Q000821:virology*; D015233:Models, Statistical; D036301:Qualitative Research; D011818:Rabies / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission*; D011820:Rabies virus; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods* / Q000592:standards*; D015047:Zoonoses