title: Prognostic models for stillbirth and neonatal death in very preterm birth: a validation study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To validate externally 2 prognostic models for stillbirth and neonatal death in very preterm infants who are either known to be alive at the onset of labor or admitted for neonatal intensive care.
  
  
  METHODS
  All infants, with gestational age 22 to 32 weeks, of European ethnicity, known to be alive at the onset of labor (n = 17 582) and admitted for neonatal intensive care (n = 11 578), who were born in the Netherlands between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2007. The main outcome measures were stillbirth or death within 28 days for infants known to be alive at the onset of labor and death before discharge from the NICU for infants admitted for intensive care. Model performance was studied with calibration plots and c statistic.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Of the infants known to be alive at the onset of labor, 16.7% (n = 2939) died during labor or within 28 days of birth, and 7.8% (n = 908) of the infants admitted for neonatal intensive care died before discharge from intensive care. The prognostic model for infants known to be alive at the onset of labor showed good calibration and excellent discrimination (c statistic 0.92). The prognostic model for infants admitted for neonatal intensive care showed good calibration and good discrimination (c statistic 0.82).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The 2 prognostic models for stillbirth and neonatal death in very preterm Dutch infants showed good performance, suggesting their use in clinical practice in the Netherlands and possibly other Western countries.
authors.affiliation: Centre for Medical Decision Sciences, Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Ewoud
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Schuit
authors.forename: Chantal W P M
authors.initials: CW
authors.lastname: Hukkelhoven
authors.forename: Bradley N
authors.initials: BN
authors.lastname: Manktelow
authors.forename: Dimitri N M
authors.initials: DN
authors.lastname: Papatsonis
authors.forename: Martin J K
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: de Kleine
authors.forename: Elizabeth S
authors.initials: ES
authors.lastname: Draper
authors.forename: Ewout W
authors.initials: EW
authors.lastname: Steyerberg
authors.forename: Yvonne
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Vergouwe
mesh_terms: D001724:Birth Weight; D005260:Female; D005865:Gestational Age; D006801:Humans; D007226:Infant Mortality; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D007234:Infant, Premature; D007363:Intensive Care Units, Neonatal; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011247:Pregnancy; D011379:Prognosis; D050497:Stillbirth