title: Predicting summer hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico: redux.
abstract: We report on the evolution and accuracy of a model used to predict the mid-summer area of hypoxia (oxygen ≤2 mg l(-1)) in the northern Gulf of Mexico, use it to test for impacts from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill (2010), and estimate the N loading that would meet a management goal. The prediction since 2000 were 100%±6% (μ±1 SE) of the actual value. The predicted in 2010 was 99% of that actual value, suggesting that the net effect of the 2010 oil spill on the hypoxic zone size was negligible. A tropical storm, however, may have reduced the potential size of the hypoxic zone. Lowering the May nitrogen load to about 70,000 mton N nitrate+nitrite would bring the model's predicted hypoxic zone size down to the management goal of 5000 km(2) and restore hypoxic waters to normoxic conditions.
authors.affiliation: Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences, Coastal Ecology Institute, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA. euturne@lsu.edu
authors.forename: R E
authors.initials: RE
authors.lastname: Turner
authors.forename: N N
authors.initials: NN
authors.lastname: Rabalais
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Justić
mesh_terms: D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D060851:Gulf of America; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009584:Nitrogen / Q000032:analysis; D010100:Oxygen / Q000032:analysis*; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012621:Seasons; D012623:Seawater / Q000737:chemistry*
chemical_list: D009584:Nitrogen; D010100:Oxygen