title: Comparison of clinico-physiologic and CT imaging risk factors for COPD exacerbation.
abstract: To date, clinico-physiologic indices have not been compared with quantitative CT imaging indices in determining the risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbation. We therefore compared clinico-physiologic and CT imaging indices as risk factors for COPD exacerbation in patients with COPD. We retrospectively analyzed 260 COPD patients from pulmonary clinics at 11 hospitals in Korea from June 2005 to November 2009 and followed-up for at least one year. At the time of enrollment, none of these patients had COPD exacerbations for at least 2 months. All underwent clinico-physiologic and radiological evaluation for risk factors of COPD exacerbation. After 1 yr, 106 of the 260 patients had at least one exacerbation of COPD. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that old age, high Charlson Index, and low FEV(1) were significant in a clinico-physiologic model, with C-statistics of 0.69, and that increased age and emphysema index were significant in a radiologic model, with C-statistics of 0.64. The difference between the two models was statistically significant (P = 0.04 by bootstrap analysis). Combinations of clinico-physiologic risk factors may be better than those of imaging risk factors in predicting COPD exacerbation.
authors.affiliation: Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine and Clinical Research Center for Chronic Obstructive Airway Diseases, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
authors.forename: Jung-Wan
authors.initials: JW
authors.lastname: Yoo
authors.forename: Yoonki
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Hong
authors.forename: Joon Beom
authors.initials: JB
authors.lastname: Seo
authors.forename: Eun Jin
authors.initials: EJ
authors.lastname: Chae
authors.forename: Seung Won
authors.initials: SW
authors.lastname: Ra
authors.forename: Ji-Hyun
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: Eun Kyung
authors.initials: EK
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.forename: Seunghee
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Baek
authors.forename: Tae-Hyung
authors.initials: TH
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.forename: Woo Jin
authors.initials: WJ
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.forename: Jin Hwa
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: Sang-Min
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: Sangyeub
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: Seong Yong
authors.initials: SY
authors.lastname: Lim
authors.forename: Tae Rim
authors.initials: TR
authors.lastname: Shin
authors.forename: Ho Il
authors.initials: HI
authors.lastname: Yoon
authors.forename: Seung Soo
authors.initials: SS
authors.lastname: Sheen
authors.forename: Jae Seung
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: Jin Won
authors.initials: JW
authors.lastname: Huh
authors.forename: Yeon-Mok
authors.initials: YM
authors.lastname: Oh
authors.forename: Sang-Do
authors.initials: SD
authors.lastname: Lee
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D029424:Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000473:pathology / Q000503:physiopathology*; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D014057:Tomography, X-Ray Computed