title: Projections of hospitalised fall-related injury in NSW, Australia: impacts on the hospital and aged care sectors.
abstract: Projections of the number, rate and cost of fall-related hospitalised injuries for individuals aged 65 years and older in New South Wales (NSW), Australia were estimated to 2051 for two scenarios: (1) demographic change only using 2008 admission rates; and (2) modelled change using negative binominal regression taking into account current trends in admission rates. Based on demographic change alone, the number and cost of fall injury hospitalisations among older people is expected to increase almost three-fold by 2051. Transfers to permanent residential aged care will also increase 3.2 fold. However, if the fall-related hospitalisation rate sustains its current trend, these increases are projected to be more than ten-fold by 2051. Even with demographic change alone, there will be a significant impact on the resources required to care for older people suffering a fall injury hospitalisation over the next forty years in NSW. The impact on the hospital and aged care sectors will be considerable unless significant improvements occur in the prevention and treatment of fall-related injury in older people.
authors.affiliation: NSW Injury Risk Management Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia. w.watson@unsw.edu.au
authors.forename: Wendy L
authors.initials: WL
authors.lastname: Watson
authors.forename: Yang
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Li
authors.forename: Rebecca J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Mitchell
mesh_terms: D000058:Accidental Falls / Q000191:economics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D017281:Cost of Illness; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006707:Homes for the Aged / Q000191:economics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006760:Hospitalization / Q000191:economics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007902:Length of Stay / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D008297:Male; D009517:New South Wales / Q000453:epidemiology; D010360:Patient Transfer / Q000191:economics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D016012:Poisson Distribution; D012189:Retrospective Studies