title: Chain binomial models and binomial autoregressive processes.
abstract: We establish a connection between a class of chain-binomial models of use in ecology and epidemiology and binomial autoregressive (AR) processes. New results are obtained for the latter, including expressions for the lag-conditional distribution and related quantities. We focus on two types of chain-binomial model, extinction-colonization and colonization-extinction models, and present two approaches to parameter estimation. The asymptotic distributions of the resulting estimators are studied, as well as their finite-sample performance, and we give an application to real data. A connection is made with standard AR models, which also has implications for parameter estimation.
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics, Darmstadt University of Technology, Schlossgartenstrasse 7, 64289 Darmstadt, Germany. weiss@mathematik.tu-darmstadt.de
authors.forename: Christian H
authors.initials: CH
authors.lastname: Weiss
authors.forename: Philip K
authors.initials: PK
authors.lastname: Pollett
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D016010:Binomial Distribution; D001699:Biometry; D004463:Ecology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D017753:Ecosystem; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012674:Senecio; D013269:Stochastic Processes