title: Modeling effects of environmental change on wolf population dynamics, trait evolution, and life history.
abstract: Environmental change has been observed to generate simultaneous responses in population dynamics, life history, gene frequencies, and morphology in a number of species. But how common are such eco-evolutionary responses to environmental change likely to be? Are they inevitable, or do they require a specific type of change? Can we accurately predict eco-evolutionary responses? We address these questions using theory and data from the study of Yellowstone wolves. We show that environmental change is expected to generate eco-evolutionary change, that changes in the average environment will affect wolves to a greater extent than changes in how variable it is, and that accurate prediction of the consequences of environmental change will probably prove elusive.
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Ascot, SL5 7PY, UK. t.coulson@imperial.ac.uk
authors.forename: Tim
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Coulson
authors.forename: Daniel R
authors.initials: DR
authors.lastname: MacNulty
authors.forename: Daniel R
authors.initials: DR
authors.lastname: Stahler
authors.forename: Bridgett
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: vonHoldt
authors.forename: Robert K
authors.initials: RK
authors.lastname: Wayne
authors.forename: Douglas W
authors.initials: DW
authors.lastname: Smith
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D005075:Biological Evolution; D001835:Body Weight; D017753:Ecosystem; D004777:Environment; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D056084:Genetic Fitness; D005838:Genotype; D008297:Male; D008954:Models, Biological; D015233:Models, Statistical; D015205:Northwestern United States; D010641:Phenotype; D011157:Population Dynamics; D013534:Survival; D019596:Wolves / Q000235:genetics / Q000502:physiology