title: [Forecasting medical technologies--a global overview].
abstract: Forecasting new medical technologies is a crucial stage in the process of decision-making in health care systems on national, organizational, professional and personal levels. Knowing what is on the horizon is essential. It is a tool facilitating preparedness and planning for updating health care in the western world. The challenge is to identify new promising technologies at an early stage. This is due to the uncertainty in estimating developing trends and consequences (clinical, financial, political, legal, social and ethical). A balance must be found between the desire to adopt new emerging technologies and the necessity for accountability n basing decisions on efficient evidence. Scarce resources, pervading health systems everywhere, emphasize the need for this mechanism to justify and improve health system determinations. Planning for the future has expanded into new medical fields, thereby reinforcing the importance of national forecasting bodies. This article presents the basic terminology and principles of medical technology forecasting and reviews the agencies involved in early warning systems including Israel.
authors.affiliation: Ministry of Health, Tel Hashomer. ornat@gertner.health.gov.il
authors.forename: Orna
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Tal
mesh_terms: D020811:Biomedical Technology / Q000639:trends*; D003659:Decision Making, Organizational; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D007557:Israel; D013673:Technology Assessment, Biomedical / Q000379:methods* / Q000639:trends