title: Dynamic energy-balance model predicting gestational weight gain.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Gestational weight gains (GWGs) that exceed the 2009 Institute of Medicine recommended ranges increase risk of long-term postpartum weight retention; conversely, GWGs within the recommended ranges are more likely to result in positive maternal and fetal outcomes. Despite this evidence, recent epidemiologic studies have shown that the majority of pregnant women gain outside the target GWG ranges. A mathematical model that predicts GWG and energy intake could provide a clinical tool for setting precise goals during early pregnancy and continuous objective feedback throughout pregnancy.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a differential equation model for energy balance during pregnancy that predicts GWG that results from changes in energy intakes.
  
  
  METHODS
  A set of prepregnancy BMI-dependent mathematical models that predict GWG were developed by using data from a longitudinal study that measured gestational-changes in fat-free mass, fat mass, total body water, and total energy expenditure in 63 subjects.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Mathematical models developed for women with low, normal, and high prepregnancy BMI were shown to fit the original data. In 2 independent studies used for validation, model predictions of fat-free mass, fat mass, and total body water matched actual measurements within 1 kg.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Our energy-balance model provides plausible predictions of GWG that results from changes in energy intakes. Because the model was implemented as a Web-based applet, it can be widely used by pregnant women and their health care providers.
authors.affiliation: Center for Quantitative Obesity Research, Montclair State University, NJ 07043, USA. thomasdia@mail.montclair.edu
authors.forename: Diana M
authors.initials: DM
authors.lastname: Thomas
authors.forename: Jesus E
authors.initials: JE
authors.lastname: Navarro-Barrientos
authors.forename: Daniel E
authors.initials: DE
authors.lastname: Rivera
authors.forename: Steven B
authors.initials: SB
authors.lastname: Heymsfield
authors.forename: Carl
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Bredlau
authors.forename: Leanne M
authors.initials: LM
authors.lastname: Redman
authors.forename: Corby K
authors.initials: CK
authors.lastname: Martin
authors.forename: Sally A
authors.initials: SA
authors.lastname: Lederman
authors.forename: Linda
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: M Collins
authors.forename: Nancy F
authors.initials: NF
authors.lastname: Butte
mesh_terms: D000273:Adipose Tissue; D000328:Adult; D001823:Body Composition; D001825:Body Fluid Compartments; D015992:Body Mass Index; D001834:Body Water; D002149:Energy Intake; D004734:Energy Metabolism; D005260:Female; D006040:Goals; D006801:Humans; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008954:Models, Biological; D009765:Obesity / Q000150:complications*; D011247:Pregnancy; D011248:Pregnancy Complications; D012016:Reference Values; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D015430:Weight Gain; D055815:Young Adult