title: Instructor perceptions of the accident likelihood faced by recently trained glider pilots.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  U.K. glider pilots with less than 10 h of solo flying time have been shown to have the highest accident rate and be most vulnerable to accidents during the 'final approach' phase.
  
  
  METHODS
  There were 58 gliding instructors who were asked to indicate what experience level they thought was associated with the highest accident rate and provide the reason behind their estimate. They were also asked to rank six flight phases by the relative probability of accidents to inexperienced pilots.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The mean estimate for the accident peak was 296.3 h as pilot-in-command (SD = 337.9) with no instructor giving a figure of less than 10 h. Common reasons for these estimates were 'over-confidence', 'risk-taking', or 'complacency'. Instructors also ranked six flight phases by the likelihood of an accident being caused by inexperienced pilots during that phase. Despite the approach phase having the highest objective accident probability, it was only ranked fifth by instructors, indicating an underestimate of the danger it presents to newly trained pilots.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The results suggest that instructors do not appreciate the high accident likelihood of early solo pilots or the main dangers they face. This has implications for the decisions made when sending pilots solo.
authors.affiliation: Department of Systems Engineering and Human Factors School of Engineering, Cranfield University, Cranfield, Bedford MK43 0AL, UK. s.r.jarvis@cranfield.ac.uk
authors.forename: Steve
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Jarvis
authors.forename: Don
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Harris
mesh_terms: D000060:Accidents, Aviation / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D011336:Probability; D011361:Professional Competence / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D018570:Risk Assessment