title: [A prognostic model of the effect of the antiviral drug Relenza on the epidemic of A(H1N1)/2009 influenza].
abstract: The paper gives the results of calculation-theoretical studies estimating the effect of the etiotropic agent Relenza (in preventing influenza in its susceptible patients an in treating patients ill with influenza) on the epidemic of pandemic A(H1N1)/2009 influenza in a large city of Russia. The values of its effect (the number of prevented cases of influenza and that of prevented deaths from its complications) have been calculated on a computer, by applying a modified PSEEI2RF influenza epidemic model (a Russian Baroyan-Rvachev model) with the A(H1N1)/2009 influenza pathogen that dominated in the 2009-2010 season in many countries of the world. Predictive estimates of the action of Relenza on the epidemic of A(H1N1)/2009 influenza have been obtained for 5 scenarios while implementing measures to treat patients with the illness and to prevent its susceptible patients in a large city with a population of one million. In conclusion, there are results of predicting the number of prevented A(H1N1)/2009 influenza cases and damage estimates for 6 cities of Russia due to the massive use of the antiviral drug Relenza.
authors.forename: B V
authors.initials: BV
authors.lastname: Boev
authors.forename: I F
authors.initials: IF
authors.lastname: Ershov
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000465:Algorithms; D000998:Antiviral Agents / Q000494:pharmacology / Q000627:therapeutic use; D002648:Child; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D053118:Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype / Q000187:drug effects; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control; D008875:Middle Aged; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012426:Russia / Q000453:epidemiology; D053243:Zanamivir / Q000494:pharmacology / Q000627:therapeutic use*
chemical_list: D000998:Antiviral Agents; D053243:Zanamivir