title: Application and performance of two stroke outcome prediction models in a chinese population.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To apply and examine the performance of 2 acute stroke outcome prediction models, the Six Simple Variable Model (SSV model) and the One-Year Mortality Model (OYM model), in patients in China who had either a cerebral infarction or a cerebral hemorrhage.
  
  
  METHODS
  An observational study that used both retrospective and prospective study methods.
  
  
  METHODS
  A regional acute care facility in China.
  
  
  METHODS
  Two hundred and forty-eight consecutive patients who had an acute stroke who were admitted to the hospital between October 2007 and March 2009.
  
  
  METHODS
  Not applicable.
  
  
  METHODS
  Survival and daily activity independence 6 months after a stroke and 1-year mortality.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The study sample had a mean age of 68.6 years (standard deviation, 11.1); 52.8% of the subjects were men, 66.5% had a cerebral infarction, and 33.5% had a cerebral hemorrhage. In the cohort, 107 patients (43.1%) achieved daily activity independence at 6-month follow-up, and 52 patients (21.0%) had died within 1 year. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was 0.966 (0.935-0.998) for patients who had a cerebral infarction and 0.859 (0.766-0.952) for patients who had a cerebral hemorrhage in the prediction of 6-month survival and daily activity independence with use of the SSV model. The area under the ROC curve was 0.894 (0.846-0.965) for patients who had a cerebral infarction and 0.937 (0.904-0.988) for patients who had a cerebral hemorrhage in the prediction of 1-year mortality when the OYM model was used.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Both the SSV and OYM prognostic models can be used for function and mortality outcome prediction for patients in China who have had a stroke. Variation existed in the precision of prediction between patients who had a cerebral infarction and those who had a cerebral hemorrhage. Other potential factors influencing functional recovery and mortality after stroke must be considered in outcome prediction.
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, Peking University People's Hospital, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Wen-Juan
authors.initials: WJ
authors.lastname: Li
authors.forename: Zhi-Yu
authors.initials: ZY
authors.lastname: Gao
authors.forename: Yang
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: He
authors.forename: Guang-Zhi
authors.initials: GZ
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.forename: Xu-Guang
authors.initials: XG
authors.lastname: Gao
mesh_terms: D000203:Activities of Daily Living; D000208:Acute Disease; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012372:ROC Curve; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D020521:Stroke / Q000401:mortality*; D000071939:Stroke Rehabilitation; D015996:Survival Rate