Cariogram validity in schoolchildren: a two-year follow-up study.
The validity of Cariogram in relation to caries increment over a 2-year period was evaluated. In 2007, the caries risk profile in a group of Sardinian schoolchildren (957) aged 7-9 years was assessed using the Cariogram software. A re-examination using the same criteria was performed 2 years later on 861 individuals from the original sample (drop-out 10.0%). The possible correlated variables were analyzed using the principal component analysis (PCA). The performances of Cariogram in predicting caries increment were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. At follow-up examination, 54.4% of the sample had developed new carious lesions (mean DFS 1.6, 95% CI 1.5-1.8). The mean caries increment (ΔDFS) was 0.5, 95% CI 0.4-0.5. PCA showed that Cariogram, gingival status and dietary sugar frequency, both at baseline and at follow-up, tend to form a separate cluster (goodness of fit ≥0.75). Sensitivity and specificity measured by ROC analysis were 0.83 and 0.85, respectively, so the gain in certainty was 1.68, while the area under the ROC curve was 0.93. A strong correlation between caries risk profiles at baseline and caries incidence in the permanent teeth after 2 years was found. The validity of Cariogram was confirmed, the software fulfilling the criteria for a good risk assessment model: precision, accuracy and ease of use.
Dental Institute, University of Sassari, Sassari, Italy. gcampus@uniss.it
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D019540:Area Under Curve; D002327:Cariostatic Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use; D002648:Child; D004245:DMF Index; D003728:Dental Calculus / Q000453:epidemiology; D003731:Dental Caries / Q000453:epidemiology*; D003733:Dental Caries Susceptibility; D019422:Dietary Sucrose / Q000008:administration & dosage; D005247:Feeding Behavior; D005260:Female; D005459:Fluorides / Q000627:therapeutic use; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007558:Italy / Q000453:epidemiology; D007778:Lactobacillus / Q000302:isolation & purification; D008297:Male; D010512:Periodontal Index; D025341:Principal Component Analysis; D012372:ROC Curve; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012463:Saliva / Q000382:microbiology; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D012984:Software; D013295:Streptococcus mutans / Q000302:isolation & purification; D014094:Tooth, Deciduous / Q000473:pathology; D014099:Toothbrushing / Q000706:statistics & numerical data
D002327:Cariostatic Agents; D019422:Dietary Sucrose; D005459:Fluorides