Assessing the risks of West Nile virus-infected mosquitoes from transatlantic aircraft: implications for disease emergence in the United Kingdom.
The number of West Nile virus (WNV)-infected mosquitoes aboard aircraft from the United States that arrive in the United Kingdom each summer was determined using a quantitative risk assessment. In the worst-case scenario, when WNV levels in mosquitoes are high (at epidemic levels) the probability of at least one WNV-infected mosquito being introduced into the United Kingdom was predicted to be 0.99. During these periods, a mean of 5.2 infected mosquitoes were estimated to be aboard flights from the United States to the United Kingdom during May to October, with 90% certainty that the exact value lies between one and ten mosquitoes. Heathrow airport was predicted to receive the majority of the infected mosquitoes (72.1%). Spatial analysis revealed the region surrounding Heathrow satisfies the criteria for potential WNV exposure as both WNV-competent mosquitoes and susceptible wild bird species are present. This region is, therefore, recommended for targeted, risk-based surveillance of WNV-infected mosquitoes in addition to an increased awareness of the risks to horses, birds and humans.
Royal Veterinary College, London, United Kingdom.
Eleanor B E
EB
Brown
Amie
A
Adkin
Anthony R
AR
Fooks
Ben
B
Stephenson
Jolyon M
JM
Medlock
Emma L
EL
Snary
D000401:Aircraft; D000818:Animals; D021821:Communicable Diseases, Emerging / Q000635:transmission* / Q000821:virology; D009033:Culicidae / Q000254:growth & development / Q000472:pathogenicity / Q000821:virology*; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000821:virology; D015233:Models, Statistical; D015995:Prevalence; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012307:Risk Factors; D012621:Seasons; D006113:United Kingdom / Q000453:epidemiology; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology; D014901:West Nile Fever / Q000635:transmission* / Q000821:virology; D014902:West Nile virus / Q000472:pathogenicity*