Nonlinear functional response parameter estimation in a stochastic predator-prey model.
Parameter estimation for the functional response of predator-prey systems is a critical methodological problem in population ecology. In this paper we consider a stochastic predator-prey system with non-linear Ivlev functional response and propose a method for model parameter estimation based on time series of field data. We tackle the problem of parameter estimation using a Bayesian approach relying on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The efficiency of the method is tested on a set of simulated data. Then, the method is applied to a predator-prey system of importance for Integrated Pest Management and biological control, the pest mite Tetranychus urticae and the predatory mite Phytoseiulus persimilis. The model is estimated on a dataset obtained from a field survey. Finally, the estimated model is used to forecast predator-prey dynamics in similar fields, with slightly different initial conditions.
Dipartimento di Scienze Biomediche e Biotecnologie, Universita di Brescia, Viale Europa 11, 25125 Brescia, Italy. gianni.gilioli@med.unibs.it
Gianni
G
Gilioli
Sara
S
Pasquali
Fabrizio
F
Ruggeri
D000818:Animals; D003198:Computer Simulation; D008390:Markov Chains; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D010572:Pest Control, Biological / Q000379:methods*; D011235:Predatory Behavior / Q000502:physiology*; D013269:Stochastic Processes; D040102:Tetranychidae / Q000254:growth & development*