Multiyear prediction of monthly mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26.5°N.
Attempts to predict changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) have yielded little success to date. Here, we demonstrate predictability for monthly mean AMOC strength at 26.5°N for up to 4 years in advance. This AMOC predictive skill arises predominantly from the basin-wide upper-mid-ocean geostrophic transport, which in turn can be predicted because we have skill in predicting the upper-ocean zonal density difference. Ensemble forecasts initialized between January 2008 and January 2011 indicate a stable AMOC at 26.5°N until at least 2014, despite a brief wind-induced weakening in 2010. Because AMOC influences many aspects of climate, our results establish AMOC as an important potential carrier of climate predictability.
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany. Daniela.Matei@zmaw.de
Daniela
D
Matei
Johanna
J
Baehr
Johann H
JH
Jungclaus
Helmuth
H
Haak
Wolfgang A
WA
Müller
Jochem
J
Marotzke