title: Predicted disappearance of Cephalantheropsis obcordata in Luofu Mountain due to changes in rainfall patterns.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  In the past century, the global average temperature has increased by approximately 0.74°C and extreme weather events have become prevalent. Recent studies have shown that species have shifted from high-elevation areas to low ones because the rise in temperature has increased rainfall. These outcomes challenge the existing hypothesis about the responses of species to climate change.
  
  
  RESULTS
  With the use of data on the biological characteristics and reproductive behavior of Cephalantheropsis obcordata in Luofu Mountain, Guangdong, China, trends in the population size of the species were predicted based on several factors. The response of C. obcordata to climate change was verified by integrating it with analytical findings on meteorological data and an artificially simulated environment of water change. The results showed that C. obcordata can grow only in waterlogged streams. The species can produce fruit with many seeds by insect pollination; however, very few seeds can burgeon to become seedlings, with most of those seedlings not maturing into the sexually reproductive phase, and grass plants will die after reproduction. The current population's age pyramid is kettle-shaped; it has a Deevey type I survival curve; and its net reproductive rate, intrinsic rate of increase, as well as finite rate of increase are all very low. The population used in the artificial simulation perished due to seasonal drought.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The change in rainfall patterns caused by climate warming has altered the water environment of C. obcordata in Luofu Mountain, thereby restricting seed burgeoning as well as seedling growth and shortening the life span of the plant. The growth rate of the C. obcordata population is in descending order, and models of population trend predict that the population in Luofu Mountain will disappear in 23 years.
authors.affiliation: Shenzhen Key Laboratory for Orchid Conservation and Utilization, The National Orchid Conservation Center of China/The Orchid Conservation & Research Center of Shenzhen, Shenzhen, China.
authors.forename: Xin-Ju
authors.initials: XJ
authors.lastname: Xiao
authors.forename: Ke-Wei
authors.initials: KW
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.forename: Yu-Yun
authors.initials: YY
authors.lastname: Zheng
authors.forename: Yu-Ting
authors.initials: YT
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.forename: Wen-Chieh
authors.initials: WC
authors.lastname: Tsai
authors.forename: Yu-Yun
authors.initials: YY
authors.lastname: Hsiao
authors.forename: Guo-Qiang
authors.initials: GQ
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.forename: Li-Jun
authors.initials: LJ
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.forename: Zhong-Jian
authors.initials: ZJ
authors.lastname: Liu
mesh_terms: D002681:China; D017753:Ecosystem; D053476:Extinction, Biological; D005298:Fertility; D008954:Models, Biological; D029595:Orchidaceae / Q000033:anatomy & histology / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology*; D011156:Population Density; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011891:Rain