title: Predicting human subcutaneous glucose concentration in real time: a universal data-driven approach.
abstract: Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) devices measure and record a patient's subcutaneous glucose concentration as frequently as every minute for up to several days. When coupled with data-driven mathematical models, CGM data can be used for short-term prediction of glucose concentrations in diabetic patients. In this study, we present a real-time implementation of a previously developed offline data-driven algorithm. The implementation consists of a Kalman filter for real-time filtering of CGM data and a data-driven autoregressive model for prediction. Results based on CGM data from 3 different studies involving 34 type 1 and 2 diabetic patients suggest that the proposed real-time approach can yield ~10-min-ahead predictions with clinically acceptable accuracy and, hence, could be useful as a tool for warning against impending glucose deregulation episodes. The results further support the feasibility of "universal" glucose prediction models, where an offline-developed model based on one individual's data can be used to predict the glucose levels of any other individual in real time.
authors.affiliation: Bioinformatics Cell, TATRC, USAMRMC, Fort Detrick, MD 21702, USA. ylu@bioanalysis.org
authors.forename: Yinghui
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Lu
authors.forename: Srinivasan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Rajaraman
authors.forename: W Kenneth
authors.initials: WK
authors.lastname: Ward
authors.forename: Robert A
authors.initials: RA
authors.lastname: Vigersky
authors.forename: Jaques
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Reifman
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000465:Algorithms; D015190:Blood Glucose Self-Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D005947:Glucose / Q000378:metabolism*; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D008954:Models, Biological; D012044:Regression Analysis; D040521:Subcutaneous Tissue / Q000378:metabolism*; D013997:Time Factors; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D005947:Glucose