title: A new neural network approach for short-term glucose prediction using continuous glucose monitoring time-series and meal information.
abstract: In the last decade, improvements in diabetes daily management have become possible thanks to the development of minimally-invasive portable sensors which allow continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) for several days. In particular, hypo and hyperglycemia can be promptly detected when glucose exceeds the normal range thresholds, and even avoided through the use of on-line glucose prediction algorithms. Several algorithms with prediction horizon (PH) of 15-30-45 min have been proposed in the literature, e.g. including AR/ARMA time-series modeling and neural networks. Most of them are fed by CGM signals only. The purpose of this work is to develop a new short-term glucose prediction algorithm based on a neural network that, in addition to past CGM readings, also exploits information on carbohydrates intakes quantitatively described through a physiological model. Results on simulated data quantitatively show that the new method outperforms other published algorithms. Qualitative preliminary results on a real diabetic subject confirm the potentialities of the new approach.
authors.affiliation: Department of Information Engineering, University of Padova, Padova, Italy. zecchinc@dei.unipd.it
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Zecchin
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Facchinetti
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Sparacino
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: De Nicolao
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Cobelli
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D001786:Blood Glucose / Q000032:analysis*; D003920:Diabetes Mellitus / Q000097:blood* / Q000175:diagnosis*; D003936:Diagnosis, Computer-Assisted / Q000379:methods*; D004040:Dietary Carbohydrates / Q000032:analysis*; D006801:Humans; D016571:Neural Networks, Computer; D010363:Pattern Recognition, Automated / Q000379:methods*; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity
chemical_list: D001786:Blood Glucose; D004040:Dietary Carbohydrates