title: Projected lifetime risks and hospital care expenditure for traumatic injury.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The lifetime risk and expected cost of trauma care would be valuable for health policy planners, but this information is currently unavailable. The cumulative incidence rates methodology, based on a cross-sectional population analysis, offers an alternative approach to prohibitively costly prospective cohort studies.
  
  
  METHODS
  Retrospective analysis of the California Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development (OSHPD) database was performed for 2008. Trauma admissions were identified by ICD-9 primary diagnosis codes 800-959, with certain exclusions. Cumulative incidence rates were calculated as the cumulative summation of incidence risks sequentially across age groups.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A total of 2.2 million admissions were identified, with mean age of 63.8 y, 49.6% men, 82.8% Whites, 5.7% Blacks, 11.3% Hispanics, and 3.1% Asians. The cumulative incidence rate for patients older than age 85 y was 1119 per 10,000 people, with the majority of risk in the elderly, compared with 24,325 per 10,000 people for all-cause hospitalizations. The rates were 946 for men, 1079 for women, 999 for non-Hispanic Whites, 568 for Blacks, 577 for Hispanics, and 395 for Asians, per 10,000 population. The cumulative expected hospital charge was $6538, compared with $81,257 for all-cause hospitalizations.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The cumulative lifetime risk of trauma/injury requiring hospitalization for a person living to age 85 y in California is 11.2%, accounting for 4.6% of expected lifetime hospitalizations, but accounting for 8.0% of expected lifetime hospital expenditures. Risk of trauma is significant in the elderly. The total expenditure for all trauma hospitalizations in California was $7.62 billion in 2008.
authors.affiliation: Department of Surgery, University of California, San Diego, San Diego, California 92103, USA. dcc002@ucsd.edu
authors.forename: David C
authors.initials: DC
authors.lastname: Chang
authors.forename: Jamie E
authors.initials: JE
authors.lastname: Anderson
authors.forename: Leslie
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Kobayashi
authors.forename: Raul
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Coimbra
authors.forename: Stephen W
authors.initials: SW
authors.lastname: Bickler
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002140:California / Q000453:epidemiology; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D004632:Emergency Medical Services / Q000191:economics* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005006:Ethnicity / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005260:Female; D006291:Health Policy / Q000191:economics*; D017721:Hospital Costs / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006760:Hospitalization / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D014947:Wounds and Injuries / Q000191:economics* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D055815:Young Adult