title: Modeling insights into Haemophilus influenzae type b disease, transmission, and vaccine programs.
abstract: In response to the 2007-2009 Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccine shortage in the United States, we developed a flexible model of Hib transmission and disease for optimizing Hib vaccine programs in diverse populations and situations. The model classifies population members by age, colonization/disease status, and antibody levels, with movement across categories defined by differential equations. We implemented the model for the United States as a whole, England and Wales, and the Alaska Native population. This model accurately simulated Hib incidence in all 3 populations, including the increased incidence in England/Wales beginning in 1999 and the change in Hib incidence in Alaska Natives after switching Hib vaccines in 1996. The model suggests that a vaccine shortage requiring deferral of the booster dose could last 3 years in the United States before loss of herd immunity would result in increasing rates of invasive Hib disease in children <5 years of age.
authors.affiliation: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA. jackson.ml@ghc.org
authors.forename: Michael L
authors.initials: ML
authors.lastname: Jackson
authors.forename: Charles E
authors.initials: CE
authors.lastname: Rose
authors.forename: Amanda
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Cohn
authors.forename: Fatima
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Coronado
authors.forename: Thomas A
authors.initials: TA
authors.lastname: Clark
authors.forename: Jay D
authors.initials: JD
authors.lastname: Wenger
authors.forename: Lisa
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Bulkow
authors.forename: Michael G
authors.initials: MG
authors.lastname: Bruce
authors.forename: Nancy E
authors.initials: NE
authors.lastname: Messonnier
authors.forename: Thomas W
authors.initials: TW
authors.lastname: Hennessy
mesh_terms: D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D004739:England / Q000453:epidemiology; D006192:Haemophilus Infections / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000382:microbiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D018073:Haemophilus Vaccines / Q000276:immunology* / Q000600:supply & distribution; D019741:Haemophilus influenzae type b / Q000276:immunology* / Q000502:physiology*; D006801:Humans; D032521:Immunity, Herd; D015994:Incidence; D007198:Indians, North American; D007223:Infant; D008954:Models, Biological; D013997:Time Factors; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology; D014852:Wales / Q000453:epidemiology
chemical_list: D018073:Haemophilus Vaccines