title: Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity.
abstract: Many studies in recent years have investigated the effects of climate change on the future of biodiversity. In this review, we first examine the different possible effects of climate change that can operate at individual, population, species, community, ecosystem and biome scales, notably showing that species can respond to climate change challenges by shifting their climatic niche along three non-exclusive axes: time (e.g. phenology), space (e.g. range) and self (e.g. physiology). Then, we present the principal specificities and caveats of the most common approaches used to estimate future biodiversity at global and sub-continental scales and we synthesise their results. Finally, we highlight several challenges for future research both in theoretical and applied realms. Overall, our review shows that current estimates are very variable, depending on the method, taxonomic group, biodiversity loss metrics, spatial scales and time periods considered. Yet, the majority of models indicate alarming consequences for biodiversity, with the worst-case scenarios leading to extinction rates that would qualify as the sixth mass extinction in the history of the earth.
authors.affiliation: Ecologie, Systématique & Evolution, UMR CNRS 8079, Univ. Paris Sud, Orsay Cedex 91405, France.
authors.forename: Céline
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Bellard
authors.affiliation: Ecologie, Systématique & Evolution, UMR CNRS 8079, Univ. Paris Sud, Orsay Cedex 91405, France.
authors.forename: Cleo
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Bertelsmeier
authors.affiliation: Ecologie, Systématique & Evolution, UMR CNRS 8079, Univ. Paris Sud, Orsay Cedex 91405, France.
authors.forename: Paul
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Leadley
authors.affiliation: Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA), UMR-CNRS 5553, Université Joseph Fourier, Grenoble 1, 38041 Grenoble Cedex 9, France.
authors.forename: Wilfried
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Thuiller
authors.affiliation: Ecologie, Systématique & Evolution, UMR CNRS 8079, Univ. Paris Sud, Orsay Cedex 91405, France.
authors.forename: Franck
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Courchamp
mesh_terms: D044822:Biodiversity; D057231:Climate Change; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D017753:Ecosystem; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011157:Population Dynamics