title: A simulation of cost-benefit analysis of blindness prevention in Italy.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The most important purpose is to assess by a trial and error method the financial effects of efficient prevention programmes in our country. The study provides an empiric evidence that Government could reduce public spending thorough investments in projects of prevention about visual care.
  
  
  METHODS
  Authors focus on the economic impact of four eye diseases that are the major cause of blindness (90%) and for this reason they were classificated as "diseases of social importance" (DSI from hereforth) according to the WHO: Age - related Macular Degeneration (AMD), Glaucoma, Diabetic Retinopathy (DR), Cataract. Authors use a three-stage approach in order to estimate the impact of blindness prevention on public accounts: 1. Calculation of aggregate costs of the DSI in Italy; 2. Use of the estimated figures in the first stage of the alanysis to estimate the individual average costs; 3. Use of the estimated figures in the second stage of the analysis to run a simulation in capital budgeting comparing the costs associated with taking one of two possible choices: investing or not in a blindness prevention programme.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Authors simulate the economic effects of the adoption of a blindness prevention campaign and compare them to the calculated costs of blindness. This comparison was based on the creation of decision trees, which are typically used for the optimisation of investment portfolios, combined with another decision technique: the Net Present Value (NPV).
authors.affiliation: Department of Economics, Mathematical and Statistics Science (DSEMS), University of Foggia, Seville, Spain.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Muscio
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Ciriaci
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Cruciani
mesh_terms: D001766:Blindness / Q000191:economics* / Q000517:prevention & control*; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis / Q000379:methods / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D007558:Italy