title: ELPIS-JP: a dataset of local-scale daily climate change scenarios for Japan.
abstract: We developed a dataset of local-scale daily climate change scenarios for Japan (called ELPIS-JP) using the stochastic weather generators (WGs) LARS-WG and, in part, WXGEN. The ELPIS-JP dataset is based on the observed (or estimated) daily weather data for seven climatic variables (daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures; precipitation; solar radiation; relative humidity; and wind speed) at 938 sites in Japan and climate projections from the multi-model ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) used in the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP3) and multi-model ensemble of regional climate models form the Japanese downscaling project (called S-5-3). The capability of the WGs to reproduce the statistical features of the observed data for the period 1981-2000 is assessed using several statistical tests and quantile-quantile plots. Overall performance of the WGs was good. The ELPIS-JP dataset consists of two types of daily data: (i) the transient scenarios throughout the twenty-first century using projections from 10 CMIP3 GCMs under three emission scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) and (ii) the time-slice scenarios for the period 2081-2100 using projections from three S-5-3 regional climate models. The ELPIS-JP dataset is designed to be used in conjunction with process-based impact models (e.g. crop models) for assessment, not only the impacts of mean climate change but also the impacts of changes in climate variability, wet/dry spells and extreme events, as well as the uncertainty of future impacts associated with climate models and emission scenarios. The ELPIS-JP offers an excellent platform for probabilistic assessment of climate change impacts and potential adaptation at a local scale in Japan.
authors.affiliation: Agro-Meteorology Division, National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, 3-1-3 Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8604, Japan. iizumit@affrc.go.jp
authors.forename: Toshichika
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Iizumi
authors.forename: Mikhail A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Semenov
authors.forename: Motoki
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Nishimori
authors.forename: Yasushi
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Ishigooka
authors.forename: Tsuneo
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Kuwagata
mesh_terms: D057231:Climate Change; D016208:Databases, Factual; D007564:Japan