title: Prediction at first year of incident new-onset diabetes after kidney transplantation by risk prediction models.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Our aim was to analyze the performance of two scores developed for predicting diabetes in nontransplant populations for identifying kidney transplant recipients with a higher new-onset diabetes mellitus after transplantation (NODAT) risk beyond the first year after transplantation.
  
  
  METHODS
  We analyzed 191 kidney transplants, which had at least 1-year follow-up posttransplant. First-year posttransplant variables were collected to estimate the San Antonio Diabetes Prediction Model (SADPM) and Framingham Offspring Study-Diabetes Mellitus (FOS-DM) algorithm.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of FOS-DM and SADPM scores to predict NODAT were 0.756 and 0.807 (P < 0.001), respectively. FOS-DM and SADPM scores over 75 percentile (hazard ratio 5.074 and 8.179, respectively, P < 0.001) were associated with NODAT.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Both scores can be used to identify kidney recipients at higher risk for NODAT beyond the first year. SADPM score detects some 25% of kidney transplant patients with an eightfold risk for NODAT.
authors.affiliation: Hospital Marqués de Valdecilla, University of Cantabria, ISCIII (REDINREN 06/16), Fundación Marqués de Valdecilla-IFIMAV, Nephrology Department, Santander, Spain. nefrce@humv.es
authors.forename: Emilio
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Rodrigo
authors.forename: Lidia
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Santos
authors.forename: Celestino
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Piñera
authors.forename: Juan Carlos Ruiz San
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Millán
authors.forename: Maria Estrella
authors.initials: ME
authors.lastname: Quintela
authors.forename: Carmen
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Toyos
authors.forename: Natalia
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Allende
authors.forename: Carlos
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Gómez-Alamillo
authors.forename: Manuel
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Arias
mesh_terms: D003920:Diabetes Mellitus / Q000209:etiology*; D006801:Humans; D016030:Kidney Transplantation / Q000009:adverse effects*; D012307:Risk Factors