title: Do elevated gravitational-force events while driving predict crashes and near crashes?
abstract: The purpose of this research was to determine the extent to which elevated gravitational-force event rates predict crashes and near crashes. Accelerometers, global positioning systems, cameras, and other technology were installed in vehicles driven by 42 newly licensed Virginia teenage drivers for a period of 18 months between 2006 and 2009. Elevated gravitational force and crash and near-crash events were identified, and rates per miles driven were calculated. (One mile = 1.6 km.) The correlation between crashes and near crashes and elevated gravitational-force event rates was 0.60. Analyses were done by using generalized estimating equations with logistic regression. Higher elevated gravitational-force event rates in the past month substantially increased the risk of a crash in the subsequent month (odds ratio = 1.07, 95% confidence interval: 1.02, 1.12). Although the difference in this relation did not vary significantly by time, it was highest in the first 6 months compared with the second and third 6-month periods. With a receiver operating characteristic curve, the risk models showed relatively high predictive accuracy with an area under the curve of 0.76. The authors conclude that elevated gravitational-force event rates can be used to assess risk and to show high predictive accuracy of a near-future crash.
authors.affiliation: Division of Epidemiology, Statistics, and Prevention Research, Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, 6100 Executive Boulevard, Room 7B13M, Bethesda, MD 20892-7510, USA. mortonb@mail.nih.gov
authors.forename: Bruce G
authors.initials: BG
authors.lastname: Simons-Morton
authors.forename: Zhiwei
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.forename: John C
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Jackson
authors.forename: Paul S
authors.initials: PS
authors.lastname: Albert
mesh_terms: D000063:Accidents, Traffic / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000523:psychology*; D000293:Adolescent; D000294:Adolescent Behavior; D001334:Automobile Driving / Q000523:psychology*; D003617:Dangerous Behavior; D005260:Female; D006112:Gravitation; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D012372:ROC Curve; D018570:Risk Assessment