title: Managing a national radiation oncologist workforce: a workforce planning model.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The specialty of radiation oncology has experienced significant workforce planning challenges in many countries. Our purpose was to develop and validate a workforce-planning model that would forecast the balance between supply of, and demand for, radiation oncologists in Canada over a minimum 10-year time frame, to identify the model parameters that most influenced this balance, and to suggest how this model may be applicable to other countries.
  
  
  METHODS
  A forward calculation model was created and populated with data obtained from national sources. Validation was confirmed using a historical prospective approach.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Under baseline assumptions, the model predicts a short-term surplus of RO trainees followed by a projected deficit in 2020. Sensitivity analyses showed that access to radiotherapy (proportion of incident cases referred), individual RO workload, average age of retirement and resident training intake most influenced balance of supply and demand. Within plausible ranges of these parameters, substantial shortages or excess of graduates is possible, underscoring the need for ongoing monitoring.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Workforce planning in radiation oncology is possible using a projection calculation model based on current system characteristics and modifiable parameters that influence projections. The workload projections should inform policy decision making regarding growth of the specialty and training program resident intake required to meet oncology health services needs. The methods used are applicable to workforce planning for radiation oncology in other countries and for other comparable medical specialties.
authors.affiliation: Division of Radiation Oncology, Cancer Care Program, NL, Canada.
authors.forename: Teri
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Stuckless
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Milosevic
authors.forename: Catherine
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: de Metz
authors.forename: Matthew
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Parliament
authors.forename: Brent
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Tompkins
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Brundage
mesh_terms: D006801:Humans; D018787:Radiation Oncology; D012017:Referral and Consultation; D000078329:Workforce; D016526:Workload