title: Impact of condom use and standardized sexually transmitted disease treatment on HIV prevention among men who have sex with men in hunan province: using the Asian epidemic model.
abstract: We evaluated the HIV/AIDS epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Hunan Province using the Asian Epidemic Model (AEM) and explored the impact of both condom use and standardized STD treatment on HIV prevention programs. The AEM was used to estimate HIV infection under four different scenarios: (1) condom use among MSM maintained at the 2005 level, (2) condom use among MSM improved since 2005, (3) the sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevalence rate among MSM maintained at the 2008 level, and (4) the STI prevalence rate among MSM improved since 2008. Compared with the rate of condom use at the 2005 level among MSM, if the rate of condom use had continuously improved, the number of new infections would have been reduced by 79.1% and the number of people living with HIV and AIDS would decrease by more than 8600 by 2020 and the cumulative number of new infections would have been reduced by 63.6% since 2006 while the number of new HIV infections among females would decline from 2015 with a drop of over 35% by 2020. When compared with the projection based on an unchanged rate of STI infection, the number of new HIV infections would decrease by 49.4% by 2020, and the decreased number of people living with HIV and AIDS would be more than 4000. The total number of 5200 newly infected HIV cases could be reduced from 2006 to 2020 and the number of newly infected HIV cases among the general female population would be reduced by 15.4%. With both the increased rate of condom use and standardized STD treatment for the MSM population in Hunan Province, the spread of HIV infection in both MSM and the general female population would decrease.
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Ning
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Ma
authors.forename: Min
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Zheng
authors.forename: Min
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.forename: Xi
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.forename: Jun
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Zheng
authors.forename: Hong-guang
authors.initials: HG
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.forename: Ning
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Wang
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D017280:Condoms / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D058872:Epidemics; D005260:Female; D006679:HIV Seropositivity / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D006293:Health Promotion; D018451:Homosexuality, Male / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008954:Models, Biological; D011159:Population Surveillance; D015995:Prevalence; D060386:Sex Workers / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D012725:Sexual Behavior; D012749:Sexually Transmitted Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission; D015819:Substance Abuse, Intravenous / Q000453:epidemiology*; D055815:Young Adult