title: "PancPro" as a tool for selecting families eligible for pancreatic cancer screening: an Italian study of incident cases.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  PancPRO is a computer program that estimates the risk of pancreatic cancer for asymptomatic individuals based on a genetic model of susceptibility and the familial incidence of cancer.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To evaluate the distribution of the familial risk in a series of incident cases of pancreatic adenocarcinoma.
  
  
  METHODS
  The lifetime risk of pancreatic cancer was calculated by PancPro for a hypothetical 40-year-old son of 570 consecutive probands with pancreatic cancer.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The 570 risk values were included between 1% and 13%. The distribution was bimodal, with the antimode located at risk=7.5%. Considering a 10-fold risk over the general population as a threshold for including a subject in a surveillance program, 19 families (3.3%) would be selected, totalling 92 first-degree relatives with age >40 years.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  PancPro is a valid instrument to rank families based on risk of pancreatic cancer.
authors.affiliation: Gastroenterology Unit, Pisa University Hospital, Italy. giulialeonardi@alice.it
authors.forename: Giulia
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Leonardi
authors.forename: Santino
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Marchi
authors.forename: Massimo
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Falconi
authors.forename: Alessandro
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Zerbi
authors.forename: Valeria
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Ussia
authors.forename: Nicola
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: de Bortoli
authors.forename: Franco
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Mosca
authors.forename: Silvano
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Presciuttini
authors.forename: Marco
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Del Chiaro
mesh_terms: D000230:Adenocarcinoma / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000235:genetics*; D000328:Adult; D055088:Early Detection of Cancer; D020022:Genetic Predisposition to Disease; D006801:Humans; D007558:Italy; D008297:Male; D010190:Pancreatic Neoplasms / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000235:genetics*; D018579:Patient Selection; D010375:Pedigree; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012984:Software