title: Do deterrence and social-control theories predict driving after drinking 15 years after a DWI conviction?
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  This study investigates the utility of deterrence and social-control theories for prospective prediction of driving-while-impaired (DWI) outcomes of first-time DWI offenders.
  
  
  METHODS
  The sample consisted of a subset of 544 convicted first-time DWI offenders (N=337 females) who were interviewed 5 and 15 years after referral to a Screening Program in Bernalillo County, New Mexico. Variables collected at the 5-year (initial) interview were used in structural equation models to predict past 3-months, self-reported DWI at the 15-year follow-up (follow-up) interview. These variables represented domains defined by deterrence and social-control theories of DWI behavior, with one model corresponding to deterrence theory and one to social-control theory.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Both models fit the data. DWI jail time was positively related to perceived enforcement, which was negatively but not significantly related to self-reported DWI. Neither jail time for DWI nor perceived likelihood of arrest was linearly related to self-reported DWI at follow-up. Interactions between jail time and prior DWI behavior indicated relatively weaker associations between initial and 15-year DWI for those reporting more jail time.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Our prospective study demonstrated that for this convicted DWI offender cohort, classic formulations of deterrence and social-control theories did not account for DWI. However, results suggest that punishment may decrease the likelihood of DWI recidivism.
authors.affiliation: Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, 612 Encino Place NE, Albuquerque, NM 87102, United States. slapham@pire.org
authors.forename: Sandra C
authors.initials: SC
authors.lastname: Lapham
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Todd
mesh_terms: D000063:Accidents, Traffic / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence* / Q000517:prevention & control*; D000328:Adult; D000428:Alcohol Drinking / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence* / Q000517:prevention & control*; D000435:Alcoholic Intoxication / Q000150:complications* / Q000517:prevention & control*; D001334:Automobile Driving / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence*; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003415:Crime / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence*; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D008297:Male; D008403:Mass Screening / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence; D009516:New Mexico; D011446:Prospective Studies; D011678:Punishment; D012017:Referral and Consultation / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence; D055502:Secondary Prevention; D012926:Social Control, Formal