title: Tipping elements in the Arctic marine ecosystem.
abstract: The Arctic marine ecosystem contains multiple elements that present alternative states. The most obvious of which is an Arctic Ocean largely covered by an ice sheet in summer versus one largely devoid of such cover. Ecosystems under pressure typically shift between such alternative states in an abrupt, rather than smooth manner, with the level of forcing required for shifting this status termed threshold or tipping point. Loss of Arctic ice due to anthropogenic climate change is accelerating, with the extent of Arctic sea ice displaying increased variance at present, a leading indicator of the proximity of a possible tipping point. Reduced ice extent is expected, in turn, to trigger a number of additional tipping elements, physical, chemical, and biological, in motion, with potentially large impacts on the Arctic marine ecosystem.
authors.affiliation: IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), Instituto Mediterráneo de Estudios Avanzados Miquel Marqués 21, 07190 Esporles, Mallorca, Spain. carlosduarte@imedea.uib-csic.es
authors.forename: Carlos M
authors.initials: CM
authors.lastname: Duarte
authors.forename: Susana
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Agustí
authors.forename: Paul
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Wassmann
authors.forename: Jesús M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Arrieta
authors.forename: Miquel
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Alcaraz
authors.forename: Alexandra
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Coello
authors.forename: Núria
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Marbà
authors.forename: Iris E
authors.initials: IE
authors.lastname: Hendriks
authors.forename: Johnna
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Holding
authors.forename: Iñigo
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: García-Zarandona
authors.forename: Emma
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Kritzberg
authors.forename: Dolors
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Vaqué
mesh_terms: D001110:Arctic Regions; D057231:Climate Change; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D017753:Ecosystem; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D046448:Ice Cover; D008386:Marine Biology; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009792:Oceans and Seas; D010933:Plankton / Q000254:growth & development; D012621:Seasons