title: A history of evidence in medical decisions: from the diagnostic sign to Bayesian inference.
abstract: Bayesian inference in medical decision making is a concept that has a long history with 3 essential developments: 1) the recognition of the need for data (demonstrable scientific evidence), 2) the development of probability, and 3) the development of inverse probability. Beginning with the demonstrative evidence of the physician's sign, continuing through the development of probability theory based on considerations of games of chance, and ending with the work of Jakob Bernoulli, Laplace, and others, we will examine how Bayesian inference developed.
authors.affiliation: Department of Veterans Administration Medical Center, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, OR 97201, USA. dennis.mazur@med.va.gov
authors.forename: Dennis J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Mazur
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D003937:Diagnosis, Differential; D004739:England; D019317:Evidence-Based Medicine / Q000266:history*; D049670:History, 17th Century; D049671:History, 18th Century; D049672:History, 19th Century; D049673:History, 20th Century; D049674:History, 21st Century; D006801:Humans; D011336:Probability